Could the Northeast see a snow storm?

 Today is a bit warmer than it was yesterday but it's a little more windy so it still feels brutal outside. As the warm front continues to lift through the region our temperatures are going to continue to warm today and to Thursday morning. Here is a look At the current surface chart and radar.

We can see a clipper type system Over the Great lLakes pushing north and the east This is going to be dragging a cold front into the region during the overnight into Thursday. With the cold front we will see scattered snow showers and flurries move through. Downwind of lake Erie in lake Ontario we are going to see  lake effect snow bands redeveloped this afternoon into tonight. By tomorrow The lake bands are going to narrow up and strengthen bringing several inches of snow possible downwind of both lakes this will be especially true for lake Ontario where areas of the Tug Hill have a good shot at seeing 12-24 plus inches of additional snow by Friday. Over the next couple of days These bands are gonna be meandering north and south. Wednesday are going to ramp up Becoming 15-25 miles an hour With gust of 30-45 mph possible. The winds are going to stay brisk through tomorrow. Where is the snow this will create additional headaches For those near the Great Lakes.

Infrared satellite

Water vapor satellite image

We can see there's a lot of water vapor in the southern subtropical jet

The 2nd system dropping out of the southern Canada into the Plains is the one that's going to bring a deep trough into the United States for the weekend and set the stage for a big winter storm.

Laying the groundwork for a big major winter storm.

Over the weekend We are going to have an arctic air mass in place producing extremely low air temperatures Winds will be quite breezy so wind chills are going to be dangerously brutal and nothing to fool around with This is the coldest air we've seen in several years. So if you go outside make sure you dress properly in layers and limit your exposure outside as much as possible.

I've been posting on the trend the storm looks to be taking for the last few days This post will be more of the same.

We're going to have extremely strong high pressure drop out of northwest Canada And drop south and east Into the northern Plains of the US. As I've been saying for the last couple of days The strength and placement of this area Of arctic high pressure Is going to be a major factor on how the storm forms and how it tracks.

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits

In addition to this, we're going to have an upper level low off southern California. At the same time we're going to have a piece of energy dropping out of Canada and across the Plains. Add the northern energy drop south and east and the upper level low moves east over Baja California.  Both of these features are going to interact. The northern energy will be driving a lot of cold Southward. The southern part of the equation will be pulling a lot of moisture northward. As the mild air and moisture overrides the cold air; we are going to set the scenario for a significant ice event across Texas all the way into the Carolinas, maybe into parts of the Middle Atlantic as well. We are also going to see heavy snow north of the ice storms track.

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits

High pressure is going to meander east over the Ohio Valley and across northern New York State. As the high pressure builds in it does look to weaken some.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

The European ECMWF (EURO) has been very consistent with this storm for several days, Over the last 24 hours or so the American GFS has been trending toward the EURO Where it has the storm end up further north and makes an impact on the Northeast. Right now both models look similar. But the GFS is still a little further south than the EURO. But both models are now showing that coastal low developing.

EURO

GFS

Images courtesy of tropical tidbits

With that 1040mb Arctic high sitting over Canada into Northern New York State and northern New England locking in cold. Along with a coastal low developing south of New England and east of the Delmarvia. This would be a set up for a major snowstorm with plenty of cold air interacting with a lot of available moisture; for a large part of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, the southern half  of New York State ( especially southeast New York State) and Long Island into southern and maybe central New England, could end up with big snow amounts.

With the trend of the storm track looking like it's coming further north Maryland including Washington DC Delaware into southern New Jersey will see Snow to start then possibly a changeover to ice!

As I've been saying the liquid to snow ratio for this event is going to be 15-1 to 20-1. With the snow so dry and fluffy It won't take a lot of moisture to produce significant amounts of snow. This storm could easily drop a foot or two of snow; Across the northern Middle Atlantic, much of Pennsylvania Possibly into southern New York State and southern into possibly central New England could see significant snow

The strong high that will be over the northeast looks to be in the further north than it was looking to set up. This placement will give the storm the room it needs to track a little north and east. The high is very strong And that is going to keep the low pressure from pushing it out of the way. Instead that area of low pressure is going to have to  conform and move around that high pressure. It's still possible the storm could be suppressed far enough south to keep major impacts from occurring in our region. But that is looking less and less likely to happen. So we very well could see a coastal low (Miller B.Type) redevelop east of the Delmarvia Peninsula and south of Long Island that would track north and east strengthening as it does so. 

How far north the snow shield extends will depend on the actual track. It's too early to go into accumulation details. But right now there's a good chance that a large part of our region could see at least 6" of widespread snow out of this. Here is a look at the EURO and GFS ensembles showing possibilities for at least 6" of snow. These images come courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics.

Remember We're still talking about potential here. In order to get a major or even historic storm all the players and factors have to come into a line perfectly in order for them to occur. So even though a big Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast storm is looking possible It's not a sure thing; as some of these factors might not line up perfectly!

Looking out into February!

With la Nina gasping and taking some of its last breaths. The Sub tropical jet is becoming much more energized and active. The northern polar jet has been active all winter And we're going to see more of the same as  we move through the rest of January into February we're going to see a series of clippers continue to move down into the US and bring impacts to our region. The cold air Is back in place As I forecasted several weeks ago. In this type of pattern there is a much better chance of seeing phasing between  the subtropical and polar jet. Resulting in what looks like we're going to be dealing with over the weekend into Monday with coastal systems developing and becoming possible nor'easters. Some of which will likely be major.

Have you enjoyed these daily breakdowns on the trends of this developing storm?

Have a safe and great rest of your day!