The week ahead

I normally pose a little overview of the week weather on Sundays But tomorrow I'm going to be a bit busy With outdoor activities So I'm posting This now.

This week 

 

The weaker clipper with the rain and snow that came through yesterday into this morning is off the coast. In its wake it left cool temperatures.

We have a stronger clipper approaching the Great Lakes, Associated with that, there is a Leading warm front and a trailing cold front dropping south out of Canada. Where is the warm front We are going to see mild air stream into Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic. The cold front is going to drop south and east during the day, North of the front Most of New York state And northern into central New England Is conning to stay on the cool side of things. with temperatures becoming above average across Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic. This is going to set up a boundary over the region. There will also be quite a bit of atmospheric moisture over Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic as well .

Courtesy tropical tidbits.

With the front we will see some snow and a winterly mix on the northern side. For most of southern New England, Southern tier of New York State into the northern tier of Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey and through Long Island a general slushy coating is possible on grassy surfaces. Across northern New York State and northern into central New England. Especially in the higher elevations. General snowfall amounts for northwest and northern Massachusetts into northern New England and across northern New York State looks to be a general coating to two or three inches. But snow could be rather heavy in the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. Leading to higher accumulations, the Adirondacks could see 3-6  inches. While parts of the Greens into the Whites possibly pick up 5 to as much as 12 inches of snow.

With widespread rain and some thunderstorms along and south of the front. some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. Those with the greatest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms will be across Pennsylvania into western Maryland. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Slight Risk. With a Marginal Risk for severe weather Into New Jersey, eastern Maryland and Delaware. Generally the best time for any severe weather will be 2:00 PM to 8:00 PM. After that the severe threat will lessen But we are still likely to see some non severe thunderstorms moving through the Middle Atlantic during the overnight Into Monday morning.

The risk will be damaging wind gust and a chance for large hail. During the afternoon we will have to be on the lookout for discrete  supercells that could develop ahead of the cold front. During the late afternoon into the evening the super self will diminish And we will see an increased chance for a few clusters or lines of thunderstorms that could develop. Besides the risk of damaging winds and large hail; there will also be a chance for frequent lightning, torrential downpours and even a few tornadoes.

High pressure will be building in to the region for Monday,as most of the region should be dry but there will be lingering snow out across Maine. Monday  into Wednesday is looking a bit cool with slightly below average temperatures likely. Then on Thursday temperatures moderate a bit and become more seasonal. The seasonal temperatures will extend into Friday But then another cold front will come through and drop our temperatures back down to slightly below average for the weekend. With the the front we will likely see Some snow/mix showers over northern parts of the region Especially in the higher elevation, with  rain showers southern half of the region.

One thing I want to point out, I'm saying the low average quite a bit. But remember, what is considered average temperatures are higher than the day before. So below average doesn't mean bone chilling cold. At this point in march Our general average temperatures are 50's into 60's °F. So are temperatures will be a little lower than that.

More on the long range

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

We still have that monster ridge over the western into central US, that continues to strengthen. This is going to allow that northwest flow to continue across our region. This is the predominant pattern that we've seen for most of this winter. As that continues it's going to continue to keep the Northeast cool. Here's a look at the climate prediction centers (CPC) 10-14 day temperature outlook.

The ridge is going to work its way east over the next several days. As that occurs We are going to see the ridge trough pattern across the US flatten out a bit. For the next several days Temperature should generally remain overall slightly below average. But as we get into the first part of April the overall general setup will make it feel more like spring.

A bit warmer today

 Surface chart and radar

We have an area of low pressure to our north in Canada. This is associated with a couple of front as well as a trough. 

Winds are turning more to the south allowing temperatures to be slightly warmer today than they were yesterday. Skies are going to be a mix of sun and clouds.

Looking at the surface chart we can see there is a warm front approaching that is going to slowly advance across the region today into tomorrow. Even though today is warmer than yesterday temperatures are still slightly below average for this time of year. But tomorrow more milder air is going to be working in and our temperatures Should become average to slightly above average.

We have a few Rain showers and or snow showers associated with the warm front. But any accumulations will be extremely light. 

A cold front will be sliding through Friday into Saturday This will bring more in the way a widespread rain showers and high elevation snow showers. Rain could be steady at times. General rainfall accumulation looks to be half of an inch to an inch.

The warming trend with these above average temperatures will be with us through the weekend. Saturday will see lots of sun with temperatures that are above average and  only a slight chance for a few showers. But for the vast amount it looks like we'll be dry.  But on Sunday a cold front will be approaching and moving through the region. This could bring a bit of accumulating snow to northern parts of our region, especially in those highest elevations. With this we are going to have a trough move into the region that is going to cool our temperatures back down to below average for Monday into Wednesday. But the good news is the first half of next is looking mainly dry across the region.

I won't be posting tomorrow. So have a great weekend.

Was this winter's last hurrah?

 

A look at the surface chart, current radar and satellite

High pressure is overhead, but it's drifting east. This is providing chilly conditions with plenty of sunshine and some clouds mixed in.  The lake effect that set up yesterday and last night has fizzled out. But not before dropping several inches of snow underneath the most persistent bands. Other than a few widely isolated snow rain showers today is tranquil.

Compliments of tropical tidbits

Currently the East Coast is sitting under a polar trough, with a monster ridge out west.

These chilly conditions are gonna last for a couple of days. But the temperatures will be progressively warming as we  head towards the weekend. Thursday and into Friday we'll see a chance for rain /snow showers. Later Friday into Saturday morning an area of low pressure will be passing through.  we'll see a warm front lifting through the region allowing a stronger southern flow to direct milder temperatures into the region. With the front there will be a chance for scattered rain and snow showers. On Sunday A cold front will be approaching out of Canada. Ahead of that cold front We will see very mild air move in, as that southwest flow continues. But as the front drops north to south temperatures will drop during the day on Sunday The front will continue to be dropping south and east Sunday overnight into Monday morning. Behind this front we will go back to reality with much cooler temperatures. Along with the drop in temperatures will come the risk for snow and rain showers. High pressure is gonna set up For later Monday into Tuesday . But then But another area of low pressure Will move through on Wednesday bringing back the chance for rain and snow showers. This temperature rollercoaster is typical for this time of year and it is going to continue as we move forward. So when will real spring arrive? 

Yes the Spring Equinox arrives this Friday at 1046AM. But this tug of war between winter and spring is going to continue for a bit longer. 

In yesterday's post I touched on how we're currently in an El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) neutral setup. With El Nino looking to be quickly developing, as the pattern evolves I do expect us to be in an official El Nino by the time we reach early summer. But before that, we still have to stay on this rollercoaster, with frequent shifts in temperature.  

We had that sudden stratospheric warming event that occurred earlier this month. We had high pressure sitting over the pole. With the polar vortex split, half over North America and the other half over Asia. This has led to the current generally below average temperatures we are seeing now. There is still plenty of  cold air in the pattern. I expect we're still going to be seeing effects of that sudden stratospheric warming event as we head into at least mid-april. 

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

Over the next few days We're going to see that western ridge expand eastward. Looking at the 24 hour temperature change From Penn state's E. wall We can see temperatures are warming up nicely in the central US. The East Coast is going to be experiencing some of this warmth as we get into the weekend. 

 

The Madden Julian Oscillation  looks like it's going to move from phase 7 into phase 8. Then eventually into phases 1 and phase 2. Closer to the end of March into the 1st week or so of April. This is a sign that during the end of March into April the pattern could become quite active. With the idea that we're not completely done with cold air excursions coming out of Canada; that leads to the possibility of perhaps a few more snowstorms over the next few weeks. So I wouldn't be putting away those shovels and snow blowers for now.

Okay The chilly temperatures are back. So now what?

 

Before I get into today's post, I do want to explain why the severe weather yesterday was a bit underwhelming. Not that that's a bad thing!

What happened with yesterday's severe weather?

We did have widespread severe weather across the Middle Atlantic. But across most of Pennsylvania and the rest of Northeast the severe threat never materialized. While we had quite a few damaging wind events in the middle Atlantic The overall intensity of these events wasn't anywhere near as robust as the earlier overall dynamics had been suggesting they would be.

Yesterday was all about potential. We had a lot of factors in play that had to come together just perfectly to make a big severe event possible. This was a very complex setup.  Why didn't the parameters come together to make for a severe weather outbreak?

The trough  was negatively tilted and we did have a strong jet streak on the south east side of the trough. This is all well and fine, but the shortwave trough was slightly delayed. With it slow to eject It failed to take full advantage of the environment.   The flow in the warm sector exit region of the trough was  south to north (meridional). That kept the deep layer sheer somewhat in check. With everything running in parallel. It meant that we had a lot of convective (cloud) cover out ahead with the prefrontal trough, This made it difficult for severe weather to really get going. We also didn't really have a capping inversion in place overhead. The lack of warm dry air (Elevated mix layer) over the moisture in the lower levels,  helped keep the lid on the pot, Keeping things from boiling over and the atmosphere exploding. All of this zapped the atmosphere. and caused the overall dynamics of everything to underperform. Many of the factors driving the setup were synoptic meaning the low pressure and overall environment was in control of the severe potential. But the lack of sun kept the atmosphere from becoming extremely unstable.  Which was needed for the setup to reach its full potential.

Here's a look at today's surface chart and the current radar

Looking at the surface chart we can see that strong area of high pressure up in Canada, well north of the US Canadian border,  with yesterday's cold front pushed off the coast. The radar does show lake effect snow bands extending off of lake Ontario and lake Erie. These lake effect bands are extending into New England as well as the northern Middle Atlantic. We do have an approaching secondary cold front that is going to end up realigning the winds and pushing these lake effect bands south and  east of the lakes.

Our Saint Patrick's Day is experiencing very chilly temperatures and blustery winds. Winds are 10-20 miles an hour We've gust of 30 to as much as 45 miles an hour possible.

Temperatures are much colder than they were yesterday

The most persistent snow bands are going to set up in the higher terrain south of Buffalo and near lake Ontario.  For those east of Lake Ontario, accumulations of 1 to 4 or 5" will be possible today across the Tug Hill into the Adirondacks. Once that cold front comes through The lake effect will be pushed south and ending up setting up near the New York State thruway. Those under the most significant part of the band will see 5-12 " of snow tonight. While areas east of lake Ontario and down through the western mohawk valley Pick up another  2 to 5 " of snow. These lake effect snow bands should be weakening during the overnight and will likely be dissipating Wednesday morning.  Off of lake Erie south of Buffalo in the ski country general lake effect snow amounts of 1-3 " will be possible today. This snow will continue into tonight. Bringing the chance for an additional 1 to 2" of a snow accumulation with localized higher amounts possible. Again the snow should be dissipating during the overnight and ending early Wednesday morning.

Winds are going to be diminishing during the day today Setting us up for a very cold night. As high pressure moves in Over the region.

No major storms are expected For the rest of this week into the weekend. We're going to have a series of weak troughs move through the region keeping things a bit unsettled with a chance for a few snow showers and rain showers. Tomorrow temperatures are going to try to slightly rebound but overall temperatures are still conning to be below average for this time of year. Thursday the high pressure is conning to start pushing east. Because of this the temperatures should become a bit milder. But I still expect them to be slightly below average for this time of year. On Friday a slightly stronger trough will come through bringing the risk for some scattered snow and rain showers. Then on Saturday we will see a warm front lifting through the region associated with yet another trough. This will allow milder air to finally work into the region, along with the risk for rain and snow showers. Then on Sunday a cold front will work back through the region setting us back up for that temperature rollercoaster ride.

Sea surface temperature anomalies

As most of y'all know I've been posting  that I believe were already  in ENSO neutral, and have been for at least the last 3-4 weeks. But that determination is not up to me. The CPC and NOAA are officially indicating that La Nina will likely end next month. As a result, we are in an official El Nino watch. With us moving into El nino during  early summer. It's still uncertain how strong this El Nino will be. But right now the setup looks to be supporting a moderate to strong El Nino. With a possibility of being even stronger than that.  A super El Nino is defined as when SST'S in eastern Pacific are 2° Centigrade or warmer than average. As most of y'all know, El Nino decreases the chance for an active hurricane season due to increased wind shear over the main development region of the Atlantic Basin.

Typically during El Nino, Summers and falls in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic tend to be warmer than average, with generally below average precipitation.

Severe weather. Is back

 There is an area of strong low pressure up over the Great Lakes That is gonna head into Canada Ahead of this we have a warm front lifting  through the region With a strong southern flow directing very mild air into the region.This afternoon and evening We're going to see widespread rain that'll be heavy at times along with the chance for thunderstorms. Then we will have a trailing cold front move through that's going to sharply lower the temperatures and they will plummet. Leading to the chance for a flash freeze. Along with this rain will be changing over to snow. This is a fast moving system So the sleet and  freezing rain and snow Won't last an awful long time But it will be long enough for  a bit of snow across New York State into northern and central New England. South of there there shouldn't be any accumulations.

Courtesy of tropical tidbits

Here's a look at the 3K NAM simulated Radar showing Its thoughts about how this is going to progress

There is a lot of potential for severe weather today. There are no real changes, at least so far, from what I said yesterday. Here's a look at the storm prediction centers (SPC) convective outlook for today.

There is going to be the risk For damaging winds Large hail Frequent lightning And a chance for a few tornadoes.  Any bowing segments of the squall line will need to be watched closely. We will have to be on the lookout For discreet cells that break out ahead of the squall line These could produce some tornadoes and some of these could be strong This will be a specially true for eastern Maryland south of the Mason Dixon line. The area with the greatest risk of seeing tornadoes will be in eastern Maryland East of Frederick Over to around Baltimore Down to Washington DC and points south. There also could be a few tornadoes embedded in the squall line as it moves through. 

With the strong winds be prepared for power outages!

Northern parts of New York State and northern New England could see a transition to some sleet and freezing rain with  a chance for a glazing to 1⁄10 of an inch or so of ice possible

As far as accumulating snow the Poconos and most of New York State as well as northern and central New England will have a chance for dusting to perhaps 2". With areas like the Tug Hill Into the Adirondacks and Greens having a chance for  2-6 " of snow. Snow will linger into Saint Patrick's day Tuesday morning as the system is pulling away. But lake affects snow will developing downwind of the Great Lakes Bringing additional accumulation to areas under the snowband.. Lake snows will be continuing into Wednesday But they will be Weakening and dying off as we go through the day