Severe thunderstorm watch 79

SPC link

 Severe thunderstorm watch 80

SPC link

Possible severe weather on tap for today.

 The table is set for the possibility of some severe weather for parts of the region today.

During the overnight we had widespread rain showers and thunderstorms that rolled across  New York State into  northern New England.

Current parameters and the setup

Last night's heavier rain and thunderstorms have calm down a bit Rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder Over the region with some snow falling across northern Maine.

We have that area low pressure up over Great Lakes with that trailing cold front to the west. Extending over New York State We have that frontal boundary. North of the boundary we have that cooler dry air and south of the boundary we have the warmer  air with a higher moisture content

Here's a look at the regional satellite

There will  be quite a bit of sun over southeastern Pennsylvania into eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey in the northern middle Atlantic This will allow temperatures to get very warm for this time of year. Areas further north are dealing with some clouds and rain showers; keeping northern Pennsylvania into New York State cooler. The low pressure over the Great Lakes is going to be riding that boundary and will be moving across New York State.

Today's severe weather threat

This afternoon we are going to see scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over New York State Into northern and western Pennsylvania. Then late this afternoon to the evening into tonight we are going to see a line of thunderstorms dropping south and east ahead of the cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather across western Into central  New York State and  Northern Into western Pennsylvania. The Marginal Risk covers the rest of Pennsylvania and a large part of the rest of New York State.

The risk is going to include damaging winds and the possibility of moderate to even large hail, along with frequent lightning and due to the heavy rain flooding could also become an issue. There is also the risk of a few tornadoes. As all this pushes into New England tonight, the severe risk will be much lower. But still widespread rain and a few isolated thunderstorms will still be possible.

Rain totals across much of New York state Into northern and western Pennsylvania will likely be 1-3 inches. 

The wintry component

Most of the snow on the northern end of the system will be across Canada. But there will likely still be at least some limited accumulation along with a mix and even some freezing rain across northern parts of New York State and northern New England. This will all be especially true in the higher elevations above 1,500'.

Northern Maine will likely see 2-5 inches Northern Maine will likely see 2-5 inches of snow, With a dusting to 2 inches south of that.  Across central Maine extending into northern Maine Sleet and freezing rain will be an issue. Sleet amount of a quarter to half an inch will be possible. Freezing rain Likely be running from a glaze to perhaps 0.2Likely be running from a glaze to perhaps 0.2 of an inch. The areas most likely to be dealing with this sleet and freezing rain will be from Caribou and points south down to around Bangor. There shouldn't be much in the way of mix or snow south of Bangor.

Wednesday and beyond.

Tuesdays boundary that was up over New York state will have drifted south and will be sitting over eastern Pennsylvania. 

We're going to see high pressure setup over the Canadian maritimes. This is going to allow that boundary to push south and west out of New England. Becoming a back door cold front. 

This will allow rain and thunderstorms to move south and west Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning along and south of the boundary. Cooler air will be dropping south into the warmer air mass. The location of the frontal boundary could lead to the possibility of some isolated severe weather on Wednesday evening into the night over parts of the northern Middle Atlantic. The front is going to stall across Southeast Pennsylvania. Behind the front it's gonna be quite cool But we will have warmer temperatures out ahead of it of the boundary. Those in the middle Atlantic Should be prepared for a rapid drop in temperatures as this is all moving through.

Then on Thursday you will have another area of low pressure approaching the great lakes We will have a frontal boundary extending out ahead of the low that will be pushing the back door cold front back to the north. Rain and snow showers will accompany the frontal passage.

Over the next few days The region is likely going to see 2-5+ inches of rain. This combined with the snow melt continuing in the higher elevations Could lead to a lot of runoff Increasing a possibility of some localized flooding.

For Friday, the frontal boundary is going to continue to push back north as a warm front. Allowing  warm air to start surging back north. Friday and Saturday Is going to remain unsettled as the frontal boundary is hanging around overhead

Saturday night and Sunday We are going to see a strong cold front drop back down through the region. With the front we can expect widespread rain showers and thunderstorms dropping south and east ahead of the The front. Some of these thunderstorms are likely going to be strong to severe. Northern areas and those higher elevation spots Most likely be seen snow mix showers. As the cooler air associated with the trough runs into the warmer air ahead of the front. With the exception of northwest New York state into western New York State most of the region should stay dry Easter morning. Then during the afternoon into the evening the rain and storms will be moving across the rest of the region. That southwest flow ahead of the front are going to allow temperatures to become quite mild., I think the severe threat is going to be during the afternoon into the evening. But severe threats should drop off for Sunday night into Monday morning as the front continues to push south and east into the northern Middle Atlantic

I expect the weather to stay unsettled for the foreseeable future. Along with us staying on this teeter-totter with swings in temperature.

Volatile week ahead!

 Welcome to the rollercoaster!

This week is going to be very unsettled right into the Easter weekend.

Current conditions

The satellite picture shows the region is dealing with mix of sun and clouds, as high pressure is in control. Radar shows a few rain showers over Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey. Radar  shows those snow showers along that frontal boundary over Maine. These snow showers are associated with th at frontal boundary to the north that is going to be bouncing around this week.

As that frontal boundary starts to drop south as a weak cold front this afternoon, It will bring a chance for  scattered rain showers with it. Temperatures will cool off slightly, Then we'll see a warm front push back to the north.  This will allow much warmer air to move in during the overnight into tomorrow. We will also be dealing with windy conditions.

The chance for severe weather

We will see a few rounds move through tonight and  tomorrow. Tonight we will see more in the way of widespread showers rain showers along with embedded thunderstorms move into the region. These rain showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday morning. Then we will see conditions change that will allow for some dry time, as well as some sunshine, ahead of the approaching cold front.Then during the later afternoon and through the evening,  we'll see a few more rounds move through with the chance some of these storms will become strong to severe. As that warm sector air mass becomes unstable.

The storm prediction center (SPC) has upgraded and expanded the severe risk. over western parts of Pennsylvania into western New York there is a Slight Risk for severe weather, with much of New York State and northern Pennsylvania under a Marginal Risk. The risk very well could be expanded. The main risk is going to be strong damaging winds and hail. But there will also be the risk for tornadoes. There will be a brief window of opportunity where we will have to be watching out for the possibility of some discrete super cells trying to develop. But this. will be short lived as we should quickly turn over to an environment that supports more in a way of lines and clusters of storms. With these storms there will be a risk for poor drainage and urban flooding as rain will be heavy at times. 

The best time for severe storms will be tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

The rest of the week

As you get later into the evening and into tomorrow night The storms will continue pushing across the region but the atmosphere will become more Stable And the severe threat should go away. So a nocturnal overnight severe threat Is unlikely, at least for now.

The cold front will continue moving across the region on Wednesday. Behind the cold front We're going to see cooler air move in Along with the chance for northern areas especially in higher elevations to see snow showers, with a few rain showers elsewhere. 

For Thursday we will be watching a quickly approaching system. We're also going to be dealing with a back door cold front dropping out of New England. Behind this front It's going to be cool. With the chance for some rain showers and northern  snow showers especially in those typical higher elevation areas. It is unclear how far this cold front is going to make it west and south into the region. Ahead of the front it will be warmer but there will still be a chance for scattered to isolated rain showers. Then Thursday night into Friday The front is going to lift back north as a warm front. As the front is moving We can expect rain showers south of the boundary with a chance for some snow showers and mix along and ahead of the frontal boundary. There is going to be the risk for some accumulating ice for parts of the region. Then later Friday into Saturday the cold front is going to drop back down through the region. Breezy conditions will return with the cold front along with the chance for rain showers and the possibility of some rumbles of thunder, as well as  higher elevation snow showers. There will be a chance for northern areas to see some snow accumulation especially in the higher elevations. The cold front looks like it's going to stall a little south of the Mason Dixon line.

With several days of rain there will be a localized flooding risk.

For Easter weekend conditions are going to continue to be unsettled as that frontal boundary is going to be hanging around. Saturday we're going to see the stalled frontal boundary lift back towards the north as a warm front. With the front we will likely see scattered rain showers advancing northward with a chance for snow showers and a mix ahead of that frontal boundary. Then Saturday night into Sunday We are going to watch a cold front approach the region. As this moves through we'll likely see widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Behind the front as colder air is working its way in, those northern areas will likely see rain change over to some snow. I don't expect Easter Sunday to be a complete washout. So there will be time if you have outdoor Easter plans like an Easter egg hunt. High pressure is going to build in for Monday as the cold front is departing the region.

Have a great day!

Sunday is warming up!

 The week ahead

The surface and radar chart show; we have a frontal boundary to the north with high pressure pushing to our east. Other than a few light isolated snow showers  not much is going on over the region. But we do have a series of low pressure areas on that frontal boundary. making for an unsettled pattern.

Satellite shows that some of us are seeing clouds but many of us are seeing some sun. This morning started out very chilly, but the southwest winds are allowing  temperatures to be much warmer than they were at this time yesterday.

Spring here in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic normally brings sudden changes in temperature and conditions. This has been the case for the last few weeks. And it looks like this coming week is gonna be no exception.

The warmth is returning!

As is typical for this time of year Fridays and Saturdays cool shot was short lived; as temperatures are already starting to warm. Temperatures are going to continue to warm up today and into Tuesday. Tomorrow's temperatures are gonna be well above average for this time of year. As a warm front lifts into the region

With the warm front we could be dealing with some rain showers and a chance for high elevation snow showers across northern New York State and northern into central New England. Temperatures are going to continue to warm into Tuesday ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Tuesday is also going to become very windy.

As the cold front is dropping through the region for Tuesday into Wednesday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms can be expected. There could be a few thunderstorms and showers around for Tuesday morning before we clear up for a large part of the afternoon. Then we'll likely see a couple rounds of rain showers  Moderate to heavier at times along with a line or two of thunderstorms working south and east across the region later in the afternoon into the overnight. Some of these thunderstorms are going to be strong to severe. The storm prediction center (SPC) Already has a Moderate Risk for severe weather. I do expect the severe risk area to expand and very well could be upgraded.

The area of low pressure dragging the cold front through the region Is going to continue to push east on Wednesday. The cold front will be continuing to drop into the Middle Atlantic and slow down dramatically. North of the front should be drying out; but along and south of that front there will be rain and some thunderstorms. Rain could be moderate at times. There is also a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms. But they shouldn't be as numerous as they were on Tuesday. 

On Wednesday behind the front It is going to be very chilly for this time of year. Northern parts of region especially in the higher elevations could see some accumulating snow. This will be especially  true for areas  east of the Greens into northern into central Maine Where snow and mix is quite possible leading up to a few inches of snow possible. Thursday that front is going to meander back to the north. Bringing the chance for a few rain snow showers and likely some thunderstorms. But all in all it should be too bad. On Friday our next system will be rolling through. The system will bring rain showers and snow showers back to the region; We will have to be on the lookout for the chance for accumulating freezing rain across parts of the region. For Saturday and Sunday this front is going to get hung up and stay over the region keeping things unsettled as a series of low pressure areas continue to move along that frontal boundary.

Looking ahead!

I do expect this battle of the air masses to continue as we move forward for the next few weeks. It is looking like we're going to become very active for at least the first half of April. So it could become wet along with the chance for thunderstorms. It's possible we end up seeing quite a bit of severe weather during that time.

I do hope all y'all have had a chance to look at my post on changes by the National Hurricane Center as well as my thoughts on the coming spring!

Have a great rest of your Sunday

New changes for the National Hurricane Center's forecast cone!

 

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with  the most active period running from August through October. When sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin are at the warmest. The peak of the season is September 10.

The 2025 hurricane system Season season Produced 13 name storms, 5 hurricanes 4 Major hurricanes, Including 3 category 5 hurricanes. For comparison, an average season is considered 14 name storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The World Meteorological Organization  officially retired  the name Melissa, due to her incredible impact in 2025. They replaced it with Molly which will be used on the 2031 naming list.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) will release the hurricane outlook for 2026 in May.

My outlook last season Perform fairly well and came close but it was off in some areas.

My 2025 hurricane outlook

This post is going to cover changes in the way the forecast cone will look and display important information. It's hope that these changes Will make the forecast easier to understand and convey the information better.

Based on feedback from last seasons experimental cone. The National Hurricane Center has initiated a few changes in the way the cone will look for this season.

The changes for 2026 won't involve wind speeds or categories or anything like that. Instead it focuses on the forecast and the outlook. 

The National Hurricane Center Started making changes to the hurricane tracking cone graphics beack in 2024 and 2025. Here is an how the cone looked with hurricane Ian back in 2024.

 Courtesy National Hurricane Center

For the first time the operational forecast cone will display tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas not just the coast. This is very important as a hurricanes impact doesn't stop at the coast and instead extends well inland. Different colors will indicate when tropical storm and hurricane watches will be in effect, for both the coast and areas inland. These watches are typically issued about 48 hours in advance of the expected arrival. This is when you should be starting work on your preparations for the storm. A warning is issued 36 hours or less in advance of the expected arrival. This indicates that dangerous impacts are expected and action should be taken. Y'all might notice that this is different than severe weather watches and warnings. But watches and warnings mean different things when talking about severe weather and tropical weather. In addition There will also be shading that indicate areas where watches and warnings overlap.

Here is an example of what the new cone is going to look like for 2026

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

Another thing you will likely notice is the tracking cone is now all the same color. Before the NHC segmented the cone between the 3 day and 7 day track forecast. But that just added a lot of clutter and contributed to some confusion.

For those who would like to know how these cones are created. The rest of y'all can skip it

Before 2026 the NHC  used circles to design the tracking cone. Each one of these circles represented a 12 , 24 , 36 hour et cetera period point in the forecast. These circles were based on the idea of errors that could occur in any direction.  Each circle Illustrate 2⁄3 of the official track errors for that window of time over the previous 5 years. For this reason  the circles get larger the further out in time you get. Together these circles become the cone. Using this method, the forecast track would fall within the circles 2⁄3 of the time.

Here are some examples that showed how the cone was assembled in the past

Starting this year instead of circles the NHC is going to be using ellipses. An ellipse is like a narrow oval. These ellipses will take into account the speed and direction of the storm and how that could change. Hopefully giving a better indication of where the storm will move. Another change in how this is done Is that the national hurricane center is going to be using the 90th percentile of along and cross track errors.

Below is an example of how this will look based on hurricane Milton's track. The red dotted lines represent how the old system of circles worked in laying out the track forecast cone. The white shading cone is based on the along and cross track errors using the ellipses. The red dashed lines are for reference purposes only and will not be used on the 2026 tracking cone. 

While the tracking cone is going to be around 23% wider It also means that the hurricane should stay within the tracking cone boundaries 90% of the time. Just change The forecast Would change from around 66% to around 90% as far as accuracy in the overall forecast track.

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.

This change in how the forecast points are made will hopefully make the cone much more accurate.

Another change for the Atlantic basin this year.

This season the NHC will also be changing the way they display the ads of development.

How the graphical outlook looked in the past

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center has used a color code to show the probability of development for an area being monitored for several years. The low risk was denoted with a yellow X indicating 0-30 percent chance for development The moderate risk was denoted by a orange X indicating 40-60 percent chance of development, The high risk was denoted by a red X that indicated the risk for development was 70-100 percent. 

This season the NHC be using a gray X to signify a 0% chance of development over the next few days for an area being observed. It's important to still monitor that area but it's not of an immediate concern. The NHC hopes that this change will help indicate what's going on in a better way.

Below is an example of how this would look.

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

One thing that can't be indcated, is the idea of, if you're outside of the cone you're not in danger of being impacted by the storm. In the past this false sense of security led to deaths. And reporting thing to remember is, the tracking cone shows where the NHC thinks the center of the storm most likely could track.  But as we have seen in the past hurricanes can change track quickly. In addition to, wind, wave and other impacts can occur well outside of the tracking cone.

One other change for 2026 will be the storm surge graphic for the Hawaiian islands.

Even though Hawaii is in the Pacific I do want to briefly cover the change that will occur there. 

For 2026 the storm surge graphic is going to look slightly different, In the hopes that it will drastically improve awareness. 

This year NHC  is going to be using the same storm surge watch and warning graphic they have been using for the Gulf Coast and East Coast of the United States, Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands. Here is an example of how that will look for main Hawaiian Islands.

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

The NHC will also be issuing peak storm surge forecast For the main Hawaiian Islands.  Here is an example of how that will look.

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.

The graphics will issue the probability based forecast of water and surge  within 72 hours before impact.

That covers the major changes that is coming for the NHC Graphics for 2026

File this away so you understand changes when the hurricane season finally gets here in June.

Will the pattern stay unsettled?

 The surface chart and radar!

The surface chart and radar Is showing the cold front is now sitting over Virginia; with the associated rain showers south of the Mason Dixon line. There are a few waves of weak low pressure moving along the frontal boundary That will keep The northern Middle Atlantic unsettled for the afternoon.

The cold air behind the front is dropping south and east across the region. Temperatures are going to continue to fall today, With the breezy conditions adding quite a bit of wind chill. High pressure builds in tomorrow and it is looking to stay very cool, with winds lessening. Then on Sunday we will start to see temperatures moderate, Winds also start to become breezy once again, moves off shore and we get a southwest flow. We will be dealing with a weak disturbance Saturday and the Sunday That will keep it a bit unsettled with a chance for a few rain showers snow showers The snow showers shouldn't amount to much in the way of accumulation but there could be very limited accumulation Over northern parts of the region Especially in those higher elevations. But not everyone is going to see any snow accumulate.

Monday a weak trough will move through. Most of it most of us shouldn't see anything out of it But those northern areas could see a few rain snow showers. Tuesday the warm front lifts through allowing temperatures to become much warmer along with a chance for Rain showers with a snow mix showers on a northern edge of the front. Tuesday night and Wednesday the cold front will be approaching. With  the cold front we will see widespread rain showers drop in across the region along with thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe during the afternoon into the evening. The front will have cleared most of the region by Thursday morning, with lingering rain showers over the northern Mid Atlantic. Then on Friday another warm front will approach and move through along with warm temperatures starting to move back into region Along with widespread rain showers. There will be the risk for snow mix showers on the leading edge of that frontal boundary. Rain will be locally heavy at times with a chance for embedded thunderstorms. Then the cold front will come through Friday night into Saturday, bringing back colder temperatures for the first part of the weekend.

This seesaw in temperatures is going to continue for the foreseeable future. This is typical for spring. We're gonna have several frontal systems move through. We're  going to have several frontal systems move through the region. Allowing cold air to move in And then quickly be replaced by warmer air. Then the cycle will repeat.

To answer the question about the unsettled conditions. They look to last for the foreseeable future. As they say, April showers lead to May flowers!

Another tornado watch!

 Tornado watch 75

Link to SPC

Much warmer and the severe risk is growing!

 Surface chart and radar

We have the warm front lifting into the region Allowing for very mild temperatures for this time of year To move into the region. This afternoon into tonight We are going to see ahead of a cold front Rain showers and thunderstorms move through the region. Winds will become gusty, with gust of 25-30 miles an hour possible. The rain and some storms look to move into northern and central New York State this afternoon. The rain looks to make it into western new England and Hudson valley late afternoon into the early evening.  Then late afternoon through the evening the rain and storms will be moving through the southern tier of New York State into Pennsylvania. The rain looks to make it Into eastern new England and Boston. Late evening and tonight.  It looks to make it into Philadelphia Late this evening into tonight as well.

That low pressure area is going to continue to strengthen Ahead of the cold front we're going to be in a mild and Moderately moist environment The cold front is going to quickly drop in to this. Setting off The possibility of severe thunderstorms. The storm prediction center Has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Over western Pennsylvania With a moderate risk extending into central Pennsylvania and western New York state. The enhanced risk that's over the Ohio valley Is very close to the Ohio Pennsylvania border It is possible that SPC can extend this later today To include part of western Pennsylvania. Initially ahead of the cold front We will have to be on the lookout for discreet super cells. (Super cell thunderstorm that form independently ahead of the cold front). But the speed of the cold front Change to an environment that supports lines and clusters of thunderstorms Within these clusters there will be a possibility of some tornadoes developing. Even behind the cold front There is still going to be the rest for some severe thunderstorms developing.  More in the way  of general thunderstorms For eastern Pennsylvania into the northern middle Atlantic As well as most of New York state and new England

Here is a look at the SPC day 1 convective outlook.

The main risk will be strong damaging winds and hail, some of this hail could be large to very large (Baseball size). There was also the risk for a few tornadoes There is a chance that some of these tornadoes could be strong. 

As the front is moving through conditions will improve North to south during the overnight Into tomorrow afternoon. Behind the cold front Friday and over the weekend, High pressure is going to approach and move in overhead.  So we will be seasonally chilly to cold. On Sunday the high pressure will shift off the coast allowing for more in the way of a southwest flow and temperatures will start to warm up slightly. Turn on Monday another area of low pressure will approach with scattered Rain and snow showers. Tuesday We're going to have the system come through with the leading warm front and a trailing cold front. With this we will see temperatures warm ahead of the cold front before plunging back down and rain turning over to some snow especially in the northern areas in those higher elevations.