A few days of quiet weather.

 

The first half of the week will be unseasonably cool, then starting midweek, temperatures will start to rebound. But before we can see temperatures warm, we’re going to have to deal with the first widespread frost and freeze of the season as the Northeast deals with the coldest air of the season.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

On the surface chart we can see the cold front is moves across the region.

There will be a few passing showers with the frontal passage, winds will be quite gusty with gust of 30-40 mph possible. High Pressure building out of Canada, is making for clearing skies and unseasonably cool weather.  The cool wind flow off the lower Great Lakes will also lead to lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  

 

The rest of the week.

Temperatures are going to continue to run 10-15 degrees below average on Tuesday. But with the high pressure firmly in charge, it would be a dry day. Due to the clear skies and the winds diminishing, a frost or freeze will be possible in normally colder locations across interior parts of the region early Tuesday morning,  Then the frost freeze risk increases for Western Pennsylvania, New York State, and Northern into Central New England Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, There is a good chance for a killing freeze in the higher elevations , especially for the  , Pocono Mountains into the Catskills, Adirondacks and the Green and White Mountains.

 For the end of the week, it’s going to become windy and turn a bit cooler. That will likely kick off some limited lake effect for Friday into the Weekend.

We have a couple of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific, with all the stuff going on over North America we will have to see if these get drawn into the pattern.

 

Tropical Atlantic  

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring the southwest Gulf and Bay of Campeche for the potential for tropical development. The development odds are 2-day 30% and 7-day odds of 70%.  So, the odds that a tropical system, even a tropical depression are moderately high.

We have a surface trough producing a large area of low pressure that is along the coast of Mexico.  This is going to form along the tail end of a stalled front in the Southwest Gulf.

Sea Surface Temperatures in that area of the Gulf are 86°F to 88 °F, which are the warmest we’ve recorded in early October during the satellite era. The environmental conditions are marginally conducive right now. This will hang out over the Bay of Campeche much of the week with conditions becoming a little more conducive from tomorrow through Thursday. As I talked about yesterday what’s going on in the Pacific and Alaska and Northwest Canada, is causing a very strong subtropical jet stream. So later this week, as this tries to track north, it’s not going to want to rush into that. So, it should take a north northeast then northeast track.  This disturbance could end up tracking toward Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi later Friday and Saturday. What it will look like at that time is undecided.  

The next name on the list is Isaias