Patty are you there?

 

In the last few posts, I’ve been talking about the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane forming in the Caribbean.  There is model support for the idea of something forming in the southwestern Caribbean around Halloween into next weekend.  We’re going to see the return of a broad area of general low-pressure form, this is called a Central American Gyre; this feature has appeared earlier, and helped create Tropical Storm Nadine and before that hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are still a very warm 86°F to 88 °F, with pockets of deep ocean heat content where warm water extends hundreds of feet under the surface. The SST in the Caribbean are still near-record high. For now, wind shear on the other hand is high. So, anything that tries to spin up will have to deal with that. So, development would likely be slow. But wind shear looks to become more favorable down the road. So, we will see! 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 30% over the next 7 days.

Nothing to worry about right now, just something to keep an eye on!

The next name on the list is Patty.