Never trust a warm frontal overrunning event!

 Yesterday's forecast ended up busting. This is because the warm air made it much quicker pushing north then I thought it would. Like the title says never trust a warm front!

The chart shows high pressure sitting up over Maine into Southeast Canada with a stationary front sitting to our south.

Closer to that frontal boundary There will be more in the way of clouds and just general scattered showers.

The radar and infrared satellite show this very nicely. Today we're going to see the stationary front become a warm front as it starts to move north.As that happens Somebody's showers will move north with it.

For tomorrow into Saturday

We will have low pressure riding along the warm front has it moves north. This is going to bring a winterly mess of rain, sleet, some ice and snow. This storm will have a lot more moisture to work with than the Wednesday event.

This looks to be all primarily all rain Across Pennsylvania back into the northern Middle Atlantic. The dividing line between the mostly rain and mix and snow looks to be Through center New York State and points southwest and Northwest Whereas north east and east of there will likely say stay more in the way of snow and or mix The same across new England Where North of the pike We'll see more in the way of  snow and  South of the pike or see more mix and rain.

1-4 inches of snow and mix across the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District of New  York State. 2-5 inches is possible In the saint Lawrence valley,  4-6 inches of snow east of lake Ontario And west of the Adirondacks. 6-12 inches of snow higher amounts possible in the Adirondacks. South of the mohawk valley Into the eastern part of the New York State southern tier Including New York City and Long Island A coating to 1 inch.

Across most of Vermont It's looking like a general 4-8 inches. With the Champlain Valley and closer to Canada seeing 2-5 inches. The Greens could see 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts possible.  4-6 inches is possible for southern New Hampshire into western and southwest Maine. Central Maine will likely see 1-4 inches of snow With far northern and north east main seeing a dusting to an inch, Northern Massachusetts  4 to 6 inches. 2-4 inches of snow is likely across Southern Massachusetts, northern Connecticut. The rest southern Connecticut, Rhode Island out over the Cape will likely be mostly a rain event, but there could be  a coating to 2 inches of snow mix.

Remember the more sleet you see the less snow you will get.

Snow Will likely fall first across parts of New York State and New England then change to a mix and or rain and then possibly as cold air swinging back in behind the system turn back to some snow.

As with the Wednesday event this forecast has a high bust potential. As we'll still be dealing with the same general conditions of a warm front advancing through the region.

This is going to be a Friday into Friday night event. With things winding down Saturday morning

The Sunday into Monday event

The storm that hit you to California yesterday Is now moving over the Southern Plains.

As I said the other day we're going to have multiple pc of energy that will have to come together just right. It's going to come down to the timing of all these pieces of energy phasing together. 

This will likely move off the Carolina coast Then from here it could either try to come up the coast or head north and east generally out to sea. The GFS currently Is thinking it will be the former and is much more robust with the storm. .Where as the EURO is thinking the latter and is not as bullish on a big storm. 

GFS

EURO

The reasons for these variations Has to do with how each model The timing Of all these pc of energy and when they're gonna end up phasing. The GFS  phases much closer to the coast. The EURO has this phasing further away from the coast. The Canadian model is somewhere in between.

Why I think the GFS is wrong!

On the sea surface temperature chart. We can see that temperature gradient Off the mid Atlantic coast Extending south and east of New England. Storms like to try to follow a temperature gradient if they can. We're also gonna have a noodle inverted trough Sitting over Southern New York State into New England. This will also likely cause trouble for this storm trying to come too far north. Not saying this Can't come closer to the coast I'm just laying out some of the reasons why it would make it more difficult.

The storm is going to achieve bombogenesis (Rapidly intensify) But I think that's gonna be further south and east of the coast limiting its impacts in our region and just brush the Coast. There will likely be some wind and wave issues for parts of the northern middle Atlantic coast into southern new England.

Right now, this will likely be a rain over to a mix event for the I-95 corridor. Higher impacts will be from the Cape down through coastal areas down into the Delmarvia and Virginia.