Happy Valentine's Day!

 

I wasn't going to post today. But there have been a few changes in how the system looks to interact. So here's a quick post!

Well our Valentine's Day is certainly warmer than it was yesterday I hope all y'all have a great and wonderful Valentine's Day!

The Sunday evening into Monday system is looking to mainly stay to our south. But there are indications That this may try to come a little further north than I was originally anticipating. 

I had thought that the northern and southern jets would stay far enough apart that there would be no phase But now there's a slight variation in the northern jet Energy track and timing It looks to get another further south Where it has a chance to do a little  interaction and maybe allow for a partial phase. Both of the major global models are showing this. When looking at the models Y'all can see the energy in the southern sub tropical jet and Y'all can see that bit of energy around the Pacific Northwest into south west Canada. As both of these work their way east; the portion of the energy in the northern jet turns a but south as it approaches the Great Lakes. Allowing it to get closer to the southern piece of energy. As a result the southern energy extends the precipitation shield northward just a little bit. As is always the case everything always comes down to track and timing.

GFS Courtesy tropical tidbits 

ECMWF Courtesy tropical tidbits

GFS Courtesy of tropical tidbits

ECMWF Courtesy tropical tidbits

A widespread rain mix maybe a bit of snow Moves in for the second half of Sunday for Maryland, Delaware and to southern New Jersey. Those with the best chance of seeing a mix and or snow would be Northwest And north of DC in the higher elevations. There could be some limited accumulations.

A bit of snow over south central Pennsylvania into eastern Pennsylvania (Philadelphia should see mainly rain but there could be some mix or even snow in there as well) going into northern and central New Jersey possibly Southeast New York state including New York City and Long Island into Connecticut Rhode Island and Massachusetts south for the Massachusetts Turnpike. These areas could see a dusting to perhaps an inch or so.

North of the Massachusetts Turnpike there could be a few snow showers and or flurries. Some of these snow showers could also make it into the capital district of New York State. But little to no accumulation would be expected.

Northern areas could see a few snow showers and or flurries on Monday. But it shouldn't be a really big deal

No changes what I was saying for next week We are going to enter a warming trend seeing above average temperatures.. With the warmer temperatures we will see some snow melt. And there will be a chance for some of the ice on the rivers and streams to start to break up and possibly lead to some ice jam flooding.

Starting on Wednesday the pattern will become unsettled and then a Cutter over the Great Lakes for friday.