The next couple of storms

Surface chart and radar

We have that cold front pushing in through the region along with a weak area of low pressure passing to our south kicking off  rain and snow showers over the Middle Atlantic. You also have those weakening lake effect snow bands Coming down off from the great lakes With  isolated snow showers elsewhere. Temperatures are very marginal So there shouldn't be much if any accumulation out of the snow on the northern side of that low pressure area.

Yesterday I talked on the stratospheric warming event. This is going to be playing a role in our weather down the road. I will touch more on this at the end of this post!

This post will talk about what might happen Thursday into Friday and try to go into some detail on what could happen first part of next week.

End of this week

 Late Friday into Saturday We will see a clipped system moving across southern Canada North of the Great Lakes.  This could bring some light snow for New York State and to New England, It may be parts of Pennsylvania. But it shouldn't be that big of a deal. But what it is going to do Is allow a cold front to drop across the region. As high pressure sets up over the upper Great Lakes.That clockwise flow around the high is going to be bringing a lot of cold air back into the region for early next week. Sunday will feature temperatures that are 10-20 °F below what they were on Saturday. Sunday will likely feature Scattered snow showers across  parts of the region.

Next week

March looks to be coming in as a lion!

That high pressure will be Injecting a lot of cold dry air into the northern plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. Then there will be that southern warm and moist air to the south pushing northward. We are going to see a boundary set up between these two. There will be an area of low pressure moving along this boundary. This area of low pressure won't be near as powerful  as the nor'easter was. But it will be strong enough to cause some impacts.

This is looking  to be an over running event.  The air on the northern side of this Low pressure area will be cold enough to support some snow.  It's too soon to really go into Snowfall amount details. But looking at the dynamics; I could see this producing maybe 3-6  inches of snow across southern Pennsylvania,  Maryland,  Delaware and southern New Jersey.  Northern Pennsylvania across southern New York State into southern New England could see some light snow. But the larger impact will be South of there.

The cold air is going to settle down near the surface. With that southern warm air over running cold air around 5,000' over our heads. This storm is going to have more of an icy component to it.

These areas will likely see a changeover to sleet and freezing rain. And then likely it'll turn over to plain rain.  The GFS is a little more bullish on this producing accumulating snow and is a bit further north than the other models. Put the last couple of runs It does look like it's starting to trend towards the other models.

From the Ohio valley across southern Pennsylvania to the northern Middle Atlantic states this will likely have a moderate impact as far as snow and ice go.

As I said the other day there was a chance this storm comes in two parts. The second part is also looking to be an over running event. At this time,  there is looking to be an impactful snow for areas north of interstate route 80. So Northern Pennsylvania, New York State into New England will likely see some accumulating snow. The amount of snow could very well be a plowable event . But due to the overrunning nature of the event at least some of these areas will be dealing with a icy Mess, as things transition to a mix. But who sees what will depend on the exact track and how fast the temperature transitions occur.

We're going to have high pressure sitting out into the Atlantic that is going to allow for a Southern flow for an extended.As we get into meteorological spring. 

Here's a look at the climate prediction centers 8-14 day outlook

So we're going to see at least some warmth as we move into the 1st half of march. Is the CPC overdoing the extent of the warmth here in the Northeast? I kind of think so. We have the frozen cold great lakes along with a large part of the region having a deep snow pk Yes we're going to be losing some of that snow pack. But right now it's looking to be a slow melt. So that ice and snow is going to help temper the warm air trying to push into our region. Things are gonna turn milder. But, I think the overall temperatures are going to be slightly above average during that time. I do agree with the precipitation outlook. As the pattern still looks to stay active. Then we have that sudden stratospheric warming event that's taking place. This  still looks to cause the polar vortex to split; bringing a chance for colder air to move into the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic during the second half of March and possibly into April.