The pattern will be interesting

 Surface chart and radar

Looking at the surface chart and radar We can see high pressure is moving in from the west And we do have a little clipper that is sitting north of lakes. We have a few troughs that are moving through the region that could kick off a few very isolated snow showers or maybe a flurry or two. But for the most part today should be fairly tranquil. With winds generally 5-10 miles an hour with a few higher gust of 15 to 20 mph and temperatures coolish and slightly below average.

Satellite

On regional satellite we can see most of the region is seeing all or mostly all sun. But downwind of lake Ontario there is a mix of sun and clouds. On the CONUS infrared satellite image you can see the energy in the southern stream over the Southwest and the northern energy in the northern jet over the Pacific Northwest. Both of these are part of the storm system that many thought was gonna bring a major storm to  parts of the northern Middle Atlantic into the Northeast

I will talk in a little bit more on the Sunday Monday system in a bit. But first let's go back to the forecast and observations for today into tomorrow.

We're going to have a clipper roll through the region Bringing some snow to New York state and to New England. The snow will be more scattered than not. Snow amounts shouldn't be too bad. For New York State a general 1-2 inches with some higher elevations Northern New York State seeing 3-4 inches. For Vermont, New Hampshire and northern Maine a dusting to 1 to maybe 2 inches of snow. For far northern Pennsylvania into southern New York State a dusting to 1 inch is possible. Some of the snow showers could make it into Pennsylvania And maybe into parts of the northern Middle Atlantic. The areas in Pennsylvania down into the northern Middle Atlantic will see most likely a dusting maybe a little bit more in spots but it should be anything more than that.

Saturday high pressure will be moving across the region. Along with a warm front lifting in allowing warmer air to work into the region. We could have some snow showers lingering in the morning but conditions should improve as the day goes on.

Sunday We will be watching a disturbance in the southern sub tropical jet crossing to our south. The pattern is split and very progressive. So this will be moving fast. The biggest impacts from this will be later in the day on Sunday into President's Day Monday.

The 500 mb height anomaly courtesy of tropical tidbits

Looking at these images You can see basically the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are running more or less west to east. The flow is very fast. All of this is what I mean when I say the pattern is progressive. There is no real blocking except well out into the north Atlantic So there's nothing to really slow these systems down and give them a chance to develop. 

As I've been saying for the last few days the northern and subtropical jets are not going to phase and so we're not going to get any kind of big storm blowing up off the East Coast.

Here is a look at some of the models courtesy of tropical tidbits

GFS

EURO

NAM

This could bring some rain to Maryland, Delaware into far southern New Jersey with a chance for some snow showers or a few flurries on the northern fringe of this across southern Pennsylvania Into New Jersey. We're also going to have that northern component that could bring some snow showers too far northern parts of New York State and northern New England. But again we're in that split flow progressive pattern So the northern component is going to be galloping right along as well. For everyone else there shouldn't be much going on and it should be fairly tranquil.

Over glass several weeks I've been talking about the warm up that will be coming in over the weekend and especially next week. 

Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days next week. What do the reasons I've been talking about, It won't be a torch What temperatures will be slightly above average for this time of year.

I'm still looking for us to see things cooling back down as we move into the 4th week of February heading into March.

For large part of this winter the polar vortex Has been weak and in flux and has been projecting a lot of arctic cold into the eastern half of the United States. For the next couple of weeks We are going to see the polar vortex project most of the cold into  Eurasia. But then as we get close to the last week of February most likely around the 22nd or 23rd. We're going to re-enter a cold period here for our region The euro ensemble does show this idea in the image above. I don't think the cold that will be settling in will be quite as cold as we have seen earlier this month for this point in the winter. We're entering that time of the winter where we start to see a lot of volatility in the pattern with wild swings between cold and warm. Along with that we are going to see storms develop and possibly move up the coast. I still don't think we're done with snowstorms at this point. Historically the  Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic have seen big storms for the end of February and through March. The pattern surely supports this type of setup possibly happening.