If you like sultry weather, you’re going to be happy!

 The summer pattern has been all over the place, we’ve had rainy stormy periods and dry tranquil times. The temperature roller coaster has been in full effect. Canadian wildfire smoke and also added to the mix.

 

The surface chart and satellite show high pressure is still in control, but it is starting to slide east. We can also see yesterday’s stationary front, has started north as a warm front. Radar is showing isolated rain showers are working north ahead of the warm front. Temperatures and humidity are on the rise.  

 

As the warm front continues to move north, temperatures will continue to climb, tonight will be a warm and muggy.

 

The rest of this week and weekend will be quite hot and humid.  We could see some isolated showers and a few embedded thunderstorms make it into the New York State Southern Tier and southern New England this evening into Thursday early morning.

The surface chart and radar also show that approaching weakening cold front up over the Midwest and Great Lakes. As this moves through Tomorrow and Friday, it will bring scattered rain and thunderstorms.  This front will completely fall apart by the weekend.

I want to emphasize rain and storms will be scattered, so not everyone sees them. The risk for widespread severe weather is very low. But a few strong to severe storms can’t be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk tomorrow for severe weather stretching from Maryland up into Southeast New York State.  The main risk will be damaging winds and extremely heavy rainfall. Frequent lightning will also be a concern. A lot of rain could fall over a short time, leading to localized urban and flash flooding.

Saturday through Monday will see these troughs hanging around keeping things unsettled.  Not everyone will see them, but scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be around. Again, storms that form, could create strong gusty winds and heavy rain.

We will be watching a stronger cold front approach the region Monday night and Tuesday. Ahead of the front widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be moving west to east across the region. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The actual front will move through later Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind the front much cooler and less humid air will move in, allowing slightly below average temperatures to set up.   

 I’m going to be releasing another El Nino update later today.

Have a great rest of your day!