A dry and fairly comfortable Sunday.

 This will be a quick post that covers the overall weather setup for this week.

Today the temperature is a little cooler, and humidity is way down from what it was!

 

 

Surface chart and radar.

We can see that upper-level low over central into eastern Canada. With a strong ridge over the Southeast extending toward the Southeast US.  

That heat dome in the Southwest is going to move into the Plains.  As has been the case all summer, thunderstorm complexes are going to rotate around that high pressure ridge. The flow between the two dominate features, is going to direct these complexes into the northern Plains and then drop south and east across the Midwest.  The setup means that the Northeast is going to be sitting under a trough during this week.  

 

Tonight we’re going to see a very large thunderstorm complex (MCS) develop in the upper Midwest this will drop down into Indiana and Ohio. Tomorrow morning this could clip southwest Pennsylvania.  There will be the chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, damaging winds, and frequent lightning are going to be the primary concerns. Tomorrow that cold /stationary front is going to push back north as a warm front, bringing with it a shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures will climb and humidity will start to climb. Then a cold front will drop in and will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

 

Another complex of storms looks to drop into Western Pennsylvania on Tuesday. bringing the threat of damaging wind and heavy downpours leading to localized flooding.  Those with the greatest chance of seeing scattered thunderstorms and isolated severe storms will be across Pennsylvania, into the Southern Tier of New York State and across Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey.

 

Wednesday will see the cold front stall over the region with increasing clouds and showers and storms will fire Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. As will be the case tomorrow and Tuesday, those with the greatest chance for seeing severe storms will be across Pennsylvania into the rest of the northern Middle Atlantic.

Across New York State and New England, the weather will be unsettled for Monday thru Wednesday, widespread severe weather is unlikely, but there could be some isolated strong storms.

For Wednesday into the coming weekend, it will remain a bit unsettled. But a trough is going to drop into the region, allowing for below average temperatures and lower humidity.

 

 Tropical Atlantic

There are a couple of areas in the eastern and central Atlantic that the NHC is watching. The first wave has a 20% chance for development over the next 7 days, while the 2^nd coming off of Africa has a higher 50% chance.

Conditions are somewhat favorable for the next 48 to 60 hours.  Then we’re going to see wind shear, Saharan dust and dry air in the mid-levels develop. SSTs are below average, but there are pockets where SST are closer to 82°F. As this approaches the Caribbean conditions are going to be very unfavorable.

However, the first wave could indirectly influence the environment ahead of the second disturbance set to move off Africa early next week.

As the First wave moves through the Atlantic, it could clear out some of the dry air and dust allowing the environment ahead of the second wave somewhat more favorable. That will depend on how far north will be as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Both tropical waves are going to continue moving westward across the Atlantic, the overall setup doesn’t bode well for them, but it that second wave develops quick enough it has a shot as some development.  The ridging over the Southeast into Middle Atlantic could pull this toward the East Coast, then it would likely be forced north and east around that Northeast Ridge.  We will see how all of this goes, but I’m not expecting much out of these tropical waves.