October and Halloween are in the rearview mirror, with the days getting shorter and nights getting crisp. Meteorological Winter is here, and everyone is wondering what’s in store for us.
I’ve been
posting on this winter a lot leading to this point; I’ve even done a couple of
super detailed winter outlooks.
This year
we’re in a very strong El Nino event: Pacific Ocean temperatures are at record highs;
all this is going to make for an interesting winter from a meteorological
standpoint. The outlooks pointed out that we’re going to see a milder than
winter in the Northeast, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have snow. In my opinion
the Northeast is the most unpredictable and difficult area of the country to
forecast. So, because of the warmth and active storm track the Northeast going have
higher amounts of precipitation. But, while we’re going to see more rain and
mixed events, we’re also going to see snow at times, while interior parts of
the region will likely see below average snow amounts, a large part of the
northern Middle Atlantic could see above average snow amounts.
It’s the 1st of November, but the El Nino storm pattern is already in high swing. Because of the Pacific setup, a huge moisture plume (atmospheric river) is bringing increased precipitation into the Southwest. This will result in excessive runoff, flash flooding and mudslides for the desert Southwest. In the coming weeks the Subtropical Jet is going to become active and supercharged as these Pacific disturbances move along it. This is also going to result in a severe weather outbreak in the Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the same time, we’re watching the evolving shift in the polar vortex. This is going to be a major disruption in the PV. Normally this would bring cold air southward, but this time the problem, is that the air in northern Canada is not all that cold. This has to do with that Negative PDO and western QBO, Ive been talking about so much.
As the moisture
plume works east with the frontal system. It is going to be pulling a lot of
moisture up the East Coast. All of this is going to result in another early
season nor’easter that will develop off the East Coast. This is going to bring
heavy rain to parts of the Middle Atlantic Region and into New England for the
weekend into the first part of next week. These nor’easters are a result of the
El Nino pattern I’ve been talking about for quite some time. As we move farther
into the winter season, we’re going to see more of these coastal disturbances
develop. Winter 2026-2027 is going to end up seeing a lot of nor’easters, what
we see out of them will depend on the temperature profile at the time. This nor’easter
is going to be pulling down enough colder air, that at least some accumulating
snow is going to fall across the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites during the
first part of next week.
While it won’t be arctic air, we’re going to see slightly below -average to below average temperatures across the Northeast for the first the coming weekend into the 2nd week of November. But the chilly temperatures won’t last. Much of the rest of the first half of the month is still expected to be above-average seeing as we’re under El Nino’s influence.
This is reflected in the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10-day and 8–14-day outlooks, which have the chances of above-normal temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast northwestward to the Great Lakes at 60%-70%.
Today will
be slightly warmer that Saturday with clear skies This week we’re going to be
watching a cold front advance across the CONUS, so the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes could turn much colder starting around Wednesday into Thursday. For our
region Monday and Tuesday look to be partly sunny and mostly dry; but election
day could see a few showers across northern New York State and Northern New
England during Tuesday, but they look to be fairly light and scattered in
nature. We’re going to have a leading warm front and that trailing cold front
bringing the next real chance for rain Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday will
end up being the warmest day of the week. From Thursday into next week, were going to
see widespread rain develop, as I said above a northeaster moving up the coast
will enhance rain amounts and even lead to snow for some of y’all.
