How February into March looks to unfold?

 

I’ve been getting a lot of questions and request in regards to the general pattern for February into March. So here is a post that will cover that.

 

December went the way the winter outlook said it would. The outlook also said temperatures would likely become below average during the 2^nd half of January, that too has come to pass. We have been seeing snow, New York City, Philadelphia Baltimore and Washington DC have broken the snowfall drought.  So, for the most part, the outlook has done very well so far.

 What about the rest of Winter?

Sea Surface Temperature

 

The strong El Nino has likely peaked, as we move toward Spring it should gradually weaken. We could see the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) become neutral by June. But the atmosphere will keep the memory of El Nino alive for a couple of months past that.  

The ECMWF, is signaling for a strong Winter weather pattern, for the eastern CONUS during February and likely into March.

 

When I looked at the 500mb pattern going forward, it showed colder signal for the central and eastern CONUS. So the overall pattern for February, favors a ridge over the Western United States and a trough over the Eastern CONUS. This is a good sign that winter isn't over yet by a long shot. 

  

The Polar Vortex is split into three parts, the weak vortex is the reason we’ve been so cold.

We have another sudden stratospheric warming event starting. But we won’t feel the effects from this until at least the end of January and first week of February.  Depending on how strong it gets we could end up with at least couple weeks of arctic air.

 

The MJO is going to move through the warm phases of 4,5 and 6, but then as we get into February the MJO heads for and moves into phase 7 and then phase 8. Phase 8 is a cold phase for February

 

The MJO going into phase 8 and supports what looks to be going on in the stratosphere. If the MJO can make it into phase 8, this should allow for a favorable setup for more in the way of cold air impacting the region past mid-February.

 

After the short warm up and relaxing of the active pattern. The cold will return and the pattern will become active again, especially for the 2^nd half of February. There is no reason to think there won’t be snow chances during February. The overall setup will support snow.

I’ve been seeing people complaining that all we’ve been seeing is Great Lakes Cutters, but this isn’t true. There have been a few cutters, several Alberta Clippers, shortwave storms that moved off the Coast, there have also been a few nor’easters.  Outside of the storm on December 11^th, that brought heavy wet snowfall to northern New York and central and northern New England, there haven’t been any real block buster storms, but there have been moderate to weak events, across the region, including the I-95 over the last two storms. There have also been a couple of major lake effect events downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Yes, many areas are running snowfall deficits. But it has been snowing.

With February looking to be generally chilly to cold; I don’t think we’re done seeing arctic air invading the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic Region. With the pattern looking to be active; there is going to be snowstorms. The idea of a block buster snowstorm during February, isn’t farfetched.

General thoughts for February

Temperatures on the whole for February should end up overall slightly below average

Total precipitation on the whole for February should end up overall slightly below average. But snowfall should end up overall above average.

I have every reason to believe, that the outlook I laid out in the Fall, is looking good, and should end up at least in the general ballpark.

Part 3 of the winter outlook.