January 14th, 2025

 

I’ve been very busy today, so this is a little late in getting posted. 

The mild air is gone with cold air starting to push in, temperatures do warm up Thursday into Saturday, before the return of true arctic air next week.

The current surface chart shows, low pressure off the Maine Coast and southeast Canada, with the attached cold front off the Coast. Radar is showing heavy lake effect snow falling downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Away from the lakes there are scattered snow showers across parts of New York State and northern New England.

Today is cool and blustery. Downwind of Lake Erie a foot to a foot to a foot and half of additional snow is possible today, with those downwind of Lake Ontario seeing another 1 foot to a foot and a-half to three feet of snow by this evening. Elsewhere those who see these snow showers could see 1-3 inches with higher amounts in the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, where 3-8 inches will be possible. The Catskills into the Poconos will see some snow squalls that could drop 2-6 inches. Most of the rest of the region should stay generally dry. The gusty winds will be blowing the snow around, creating poor driving conditions. The winds will make it feel even colder. The lake snows will be shifting southeast of Big Lakes tonight bringing 3-6 inches of snow for those downwind.

Tomorrow it will stay cold and blustery., The lake bands will be hanging around southeast of the Lakes during the day bringing another 3-6 inches of snow, then ahead of an approaching trough, they will slowly move back north and weakening Wednesday night.  By Thursday that approaching fairly weak and disorganized trough will move through but any snow should stay on the lighter side and keep any lake effect limited.

The cold will last for Thursday, then a southwest flow will warm us up for Friday into Sunday with temperatures becoming seasonal. Saturday a cold front will approach and move through. It will be warm enough on the onset for rain, then as cooler air filters in rain will change over to snow across northern Pennsylvania, New York State and northern and central New England, the change over will start first in the high elevations then work its way down into the lower elevations by Sunday. Southern Pennsylvania, the Middle Atlantic and along the coast should stay primarily rain with some mix. A Clipper and a second cold front will come through on Sunday, behind this a true arctic airmass will move in for Sunday night, the arctic air will be in place for Monday. Sunday some southern energy will bring some southern moisture up the Coast.  On Monday we look to see low pressure develop off the Middle Atlantic Coast east of the Delmarva.  As this develops it will bring a rain/snow mix to the Coast and light to moderate snow across the interior. This will be a fairly quick mover so much of the region should see snow ending Tuesday, with the snow still falling across northern New England behind the departing storm as it heads for Atlantic Canada. How far west and north and who sees what and how much will depend on the exact track and how strong the storm becomes. So we will see.

Behind this storm, we will once again see a series of troughs work through. These will reenforce the cold and once again allow for lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes.  Next week will probably be the coldest air we’ve seen so far this winter.

Yesterday I asked who hasn't seen any snow yet this winter. as far as I can tell the entire region including the I-95 have seen at least some snow. So those who were in a snow drought last winter, are out of it now, but the up and down temperatures have made holding on to a snowpack very difficult for many areas in the region, while other areas have very deep snowpacks. So while the snow drought from last year is over, there are areas that have lost their snow. But I'm sure there will be more chances for snowstorms moving forward.

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