The parade of
clippers continues.
This weekend
hasn’t been super cold, but temperatures are still slightly below average. We had
a warm front lift into the region yesterday, so temperatures today are a bit
warmer than yesterday. West winds will pick up today, these winds will be
10-20mph, with widespread gust of 30 to 40 mph. For those closer to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario, the winds could gust even higher with gust of 50-60 mph
possible.
The flow is
causing lake effect snow to fall downwind of Lake Eire and especially Lake
Ontario, due to the fact that Lake Ontario is virtually ice free, while Lake
Erie is almost iced over. The 10-15 % of Lake Eire that is unfrozen, is still
enough for weaker and more localized lake snow bands, so a few inches will be
possible. For y’all downwind of Lake Ontario, those under the most persistent
bands will see another 6-12 inches of snow with locally higher amounts by
tomorrow morning. The lake effect should
taper off tomorrow morning.
Tuesday we
will see an arctic front approach ahead of another clipper system. As the cold front rolls through on Tuesday, it
will kick off snow showers and some snow squalls, these squalls could drop a
quick inch or two of snow. The clipper system moving over the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, will be moisture starved but could bring a few inches of snow for
parts of New York State, and northern and central New England.
The places
most likely to see a few inches of snow during the first half of the week will
be across Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York State including the Finger
Lakes and northern New York State (north of I-90) and across northern into
central New England. Those downwind of the Great Lakes will likely be dealing
with more lake effect snow. Those across southern New England back into much of
Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic could see a few snow showers or flurries
with little to no accumulation.
Behind the
clipper much colder air will work into the region for Thursday into Saturday. lake
effect snow will again be an issue for those downwind of the Big Lakes. The
below average temperatures will stick around for the end of the week into early
next week. But then milder air looks to work in during later Saturday into the
first week of February. This stretch of cold, doesn’t look to be quite as cold
as the recent bout we’ve had. When we get around the 2nd or 3rd of February;
a disturbance looks to move near or over our region. Precipitation type will
depend on temperatures, but IMO ice could end up being a concern.
Moving
forward, the general storm track looks to be further west than it has been.
This would mean snow storms would be more likely over the central and northern
Plains into the Great Lakes. If this occurs, our region would be on the warm
side of these systems leading a greater likelihood of rain/mix events. But
there are hints that the overall cold pattern could make a comeback by the
middle of February. I do think February will see a lot of back and forth.
I hope we get some more big snow storms.
ReplyDeleteThank you. Have a great Sunday!
ReplyDeleteTanks
ReplyDeleteWhen we had the cold needed for snow there were no storms.Then the word Nor Easter graced my page and sure enough there was no blocking in Greenland,AO Positive,NAO positive but as the storm took shape and initial accumulation maps were coming out 6-9 was not that bad,then 8-12” and the Facebook Snowlovers started coming out of the woodwork.That was it,I knew as hard as the meteorologist work tearing through maps and models,sitting in front of their monitors until their necks are killing them and the pillow on the chair is not doing enough,I knew just as the past 4 years I knew that we werrre not going to.see anymore than half the first number in the first prediction.That number was 6 so 3 it was.I most certainly hoped I was wrong a foot of snow has not fallen here in years,not since the 3 Nor'Easters hit here in March of 2019.Last year was so warm that people were falling through the ice at a record clip.People,Snowmobiles.4wheelers,even Trucks.It started again this year,Trucks,People,Dive team members going through.But we were saved with some cold days and much colder nights.I hoped that the foot or more would not happen because I knew warm weather was coming and quite possible some rain.Even at 16 below ice will not get as thick as if there is 3”What a delema,I want snow,feet of itseveral feet,31” is our record,break it,go down to 10 below zero with 25 mile an hour winds and gust up to 40. Then after a few days of that another 15 to 18 inches of snow with wind, howling and back lashes like we used to get. then back to below zero getting dressed up and go on ice fishing there really is nothing like it. Last year we didn’t get a foot of snow while we may have some storm started off as snow but when we measured them in the morning, there was no snow left. It was 45 and raining. I have a bat that we will not exceed 15 inches of snow this year. Back inthe late 90s we had a winter to be all winters. Every major city on the East Coast beat their record for snow during the season. This area got bombed power along with the nights and days that were below zero it was a perfect winter snow that was to turn to rain never did and it just snowed for 15 or 20 hours one night. I left work at 11 o’clock and got a phone call at two to come down and get on the bucket loader to do some plowing in three hours. There were 7 inches of snow and I couldn’t even see 5 feet in front of the bucket. I remember those winters because I believe it was easier on the meteorologist three or four days before a storm. They give us the information and an initial prediction and it never changed if they said 9 to 12 then we got 9 to 12 these days the meteorologist don’t have it so easy. There are so many things going on in our climate and in our atmosphere that they have to put all that into the equations. It must be hard doing that job now and for that I say thank you
ReplyDeleteI take the top number a cut it in half then ise thay as the high end amount works most of the time example 4-8 =2-4
ReplyDelete