January Monday 13th, 2025

 

 

Today sees the mild temperatures continue, but looking at the surface chart we see a cold front approaching with a series of troughs behind it, that will allow cold air to return putting an end to these warm temperatures for a bit.

Behind the strong cold front, we’re going temperatures tumble leading to a flash freeze. Along and ahead of the front much of Pennsylvania, New York State and north and central New England will see snow showers and squalls move through leading to quickly accumulating snow, with the squall line a quick T-3 inches of snow will likely fall, leading to reduced visibility and poor driving conditions. Those in southern New England into parts of southern Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic will see snow/rain mix. With the frontal passage winds will crank up with 10 to 25 mph winds, with gust up around 45 mph possible. The winds will stick around for Tuesday and Wednesday, adding to the cold feel in the air.

A series of troughs will work through over the next couple of days, bringing the chance for snow showers and squalls, while most of us away from the Great Lakes will stay generally dry.  Parts of northern Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into Central New England could see a trace to 3 inches of general accumulation. With the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites seeing a chance for 3-8 inches through Wednesday.

With the arrival of the cold, lake effect snow is going to start up. Winds will be out of the west tonight into Tuesday, leading to heavy lake effect snow bands off the east end of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Then the winds will shift to out of the northwest later Tuesday into Wednesday pushing the lake bands southeast of Erie and Ontario.  Those under the most persistent bands will see snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour, with the winds, blizzard like conditions can be expected at times. Those who look to see the most snow will be in parts of the Boston Hills and Chautauqua Escarpment off of Lake Erie, where one to two feet of snow is likely. Off of Lake Ontario the Tug Hill looks to see two to four feet, with locally higher amounts possible.

High pressure will build into the region for Thursday into the Weekend, with winds diminishing by Friday A southwest flow will allow temperatures to warm. Then we will be watching a couple of disturbances. Saturday low pressure with a cold front will approach. This will roll through the region late Saturday and Sunday, with the warmer temperatures, this will be a rain maker for many of us. But across northern Pennsylvania New York State and Northern into Central New England the air could be cold enough for a rain/snow mix especially in the higher terrain.

Images from Tropical Tidbits

True Arctic air will move in for next week, putting an end to the short warm up. This will encompass the entire region.  For Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday, we will likely see low pressure develop off the coast. How close this ends up tracking will be one key into who sees what, how much the northern and southern streams interact, along with how much available moisture, will be another key. But accumulating snow is possible across a large part of the region, including the coast. With the arctic air in place snow ratios could be higher, leading to higher accumulation amounts. There is a lot to work out so we will see how things trend and work out.

I've seen a few post saying that a large part of our region is still in a snow drought. I didn't know this, as I thought over the course so far, the entire region has seen at least some snow. I do know that parts of Pennsylvania, most of New York State, and a large part of New England do have a snowpack. So I don't know why some are saying no snow has fallen in parts of the region. Y'all know your local area better than I do, so please let me know if you haven't seen any snow yet this winter.