This morning
was quite cold, but the arctic outbreak is starting to lose its grip. The surface
chart shows high pressure is in control, providing the sun and clouds. The
radar shows some snow showers over the region as a shortwave moves through. These
showers will have more bark than bite, so not much in the way of accumulation,
those downwind of the Great Lakes could see some lake enhancement that could
cause a couple of inches of accumulation in those areas, higher amounts will be possible closer to the lakes. The vast majority of y’all
should stay dry today.
Tomorrow and
Saturday should generally be a rinse and repeat of today’s weather. But temperatures
will be getting warmer. Sunday a shortwave disturbance that’s a little stronger,
pass to our north, this will bring snow showers and squalls across New York State
into parts of northern Pennsylvania and northern and central New England, lake
effect snow will likely start up downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
As we move
though next week the same unsettled weather pattern will be in place with
temperatures becoming a bit milder becoming what we would expect for this time
of year. Each day will see a disturbance pass to our north resulting in snow flurries
and snow showers across the northern areas, with basically dry conditions for
the southern areas. Thursday will see a disturbance
approach, this will likely bring rain to Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic, depending
on the temperature this rain could encompass northern areas as well.
Details on
the general pattern for February
The La Nina
is weakening; so, it will likely be very short lived. This will keep its influence
muted. So other teleconnections will have more input into the pattern.
The MJO is
an eastward moving disturbance that propagates (moves) across the Earths equatorial tropical
regions then returns to its starting point. It has a great impact on the30- to
90-day variability in the temperature and precipitation patterns. We track its movement
on the MJO phase chart as it moves through 8 phases. Each phase has an impact
on different parts of the Planet. These impacts vary depending on the time of
year.
Over the
last 10 days, the MJO quickly moved through phases 8-2; this time of year,
these phases are typically cold phases in the central and eastern CONUS. We’re
now in phase 3; this time of year, phases 3-4 are considered warm phases. The
MJO will move across these phases over the next 7-10 days. Then it looks to
move into the center (null) circle on the phase chart. When it’s inside the
circle, the MJO influence on the pattern is greatly reduced. The MJO looks to move
into phase 1 around the middle of February, then from there into phase 2 over
the rest of the month.
These charts show the temperature and precipitation anomalies as the MJO propagates through the phases.
Based on all
of this, February is going to continue with this roller coaster temperature
pattern. The arctic air is going to try and push into the region and that
southeast ridge is going to try and come north. So, we should see cold air at
times, but I don’t think the temperature anomalies will be as cold as they have
been.
As far as
winter storms in general. The pattern going forward for mid-February the
primary storm tracks look to be the Middle Atlantic into the Southeast. While
not impossible major blockbuster storms coming up the Coast will be hard to
come-by, with the AO and NAO staying generally neutral to positive; the
prospect for strong blocking is fairly low.
The pattern
has been active for much of the winter. I don’t see this stopping. So, most of
the storms moving forward, should be weak to moderate events, that will depend
on how the northern polar jet and southern subtropical jet interact. There is
plenty of cold air still in the pattern. If the timing works out and some of
that southern moisture can come into play, moderate snowstorms in the Middle
Atlantic up into New England will be possible. One or two of these could be
larger if the timing and setup is perfect.
Thank you. I’m happy the cold is over for now.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome!
DeleteThank you
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome!
DeleteThis has been a sad winter (for snow not cold) for southern New England. Seems like it will continue. Hopefully we get some of those moderate storms
ReplyDeleteWe will see. I don't know if you read my Winter Outlook, but it outlined how Southern New England should end overall slightly below average. So far that seems to be on track.
DeleteA number of disappointing winters for eastern NY. Accumulations and blizzards in places like Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Florida… climate change in full effect. I fear that the storms we get up north will continue to be mild until they’re blockbuster from time to time, punishing the unprepared. Nothing we can immediately do to change the patterns. I see it already the way people drive here when we do get snow. It’s like we’ve forgotten how to dive in normal winter weather. What else are we forgetting to prepare? That’s the stuff that will catch us off guard and we can’t forget about or we’re going to resolve to how southerners are in snow (which isn’t to say they’re doing anything wrong… it’s just not supposed to snow there… and it’s always a dangerous event because the tools aren’t available. I think the only thing we can do is be prepared for the unexpected so we’re not halted to a standstill when we do eventually get a weird blockbuster blizzard (or other dangerous weather event)
ReplyDelete