A Very Chilly But Nice Fall Day!

 Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

Today

It’s bright and sunny but still very cool. The high pressure is in control, and we have a northwesterly breeze adding to the chill. So, most of y’all will need a sweater or jacket today.  Radar is showing the region is dry. The vast majority of the region is cloud free. But there are a few high attitude clouds over Northeast New York State, Vermont. With more in the way of clouds over northern New Hampshire into Maine.  

The rest of the week.

These same general conditions will be with us for the rest of this week. But we will start to warm tomorrow with southwesterly winds. Thursday and Friday will see a slight chance for a few widely isolated showers, other than that we will stay dry right into Saturday. On Sunday, whatever remnants of what is now 92L will be approaching, rain will move into Southwest Pennsylvania Sunday later morning into the Afternoon. Then this will advance north and east.  Sunday night rain will be moving over New York State and southern New England. For Monday the rain will continue to advance into far northern New York State and northern New England. General rainfall amounts look to be 0.50 to perhaps 1.5 inches; so no really big deal. All of this will be pushing away on Tuesday.

Tropical Atlantic  

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now identifying this disturbance as Invest 92L

Over the next couple days, this should gradually become better organized. As of this writing, the NHC has the odds for development at 90 percent. The odds of this becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow is very high. Over the next day or two 92L should drift eastward

The sea surface temperature under Invest 92L is currently almost 88 °F, with SST in the northern Gulf running at around 84 °F all more than enough to support a tropical storm or a hurricane.  Wind shear over the western Gulf is moderate, it drops off a little out over the Central Gulf, but wind shear in the northern Gulf is considerable. So right now, 92L has a good chance of becoming the season's first hurricane. There is a deep heat content over the central Gulf. This will give this a chance to undergo some rapid development. So, a Major Hurricane is not out of the question.  But once it turns toward the northern Gulf Coast, it would have to contend with the significant wind shear.  Those in Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi into the Florida Pan Handle will most likely see this landfalling on Saturday.  Down the road, our region will see some rain out of this, but that’s really it as far as direct impacts.

 

The next name on the list is Isaias