Will we see the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026?

Tropical Atlantic  

Last evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) raised Invest 92L to Tropical Depression Nine; Then this morning TD #9 became Tropical Storm Isaias.

Isaias has max sustained winds of 40 mph, a central pressure of 1004mb, tracking east northeast at 8 mph. Isaias is likely to intensify in the central Gulf of Mexico to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. 

The models show likely soon to be hurricane Isaias becoming a Category 2, with a chance of making it to a Category 3, once over the central Gulf. After that as he heads for the Central /Northeast Gulf Coast that higher windshear should weaken this before a landfall New Orleans LA and Panama City FL Late Friday or overnight Friday.   

The models show likely soon to be hurricane Isaias becoming a Category 2, with a chance of making it to a Category 3, once over the central Gulf. After that as she heads for the Central /Northeast Gulf Coast that higher windshear should weaken this before a landfall New Orleans LA and Panama City FL Late Friday or overnight Friday.   Isaias will weaken over land. Here’s a look at the hurricane spaghetti models

 

Region Weather  

 

After a very frosty start, we have a southwest flow (10-15 mph), bring in warmer temps.

We still have high pressure impacting the region. Today southern parts of the region will be beautiful, with plenty of Sun and dry conditions. Northern parts of the region will see more in the way of clouds, with a very slight chance for a shower.  Temperatures will be warmer than they were yesterday. Tonight, into tomorrow a Canadian disturbance with a weak cold front will move across New York State and northern into Central New England, bringing a better chance for rain showers later tonight into Thursday across those areas. The cold front will continue to push through the rest of the region on Thursday, but with little to no rain. Behind the front winds will shift to the northwest, allowing temperatures to drop for Friday into Saturday.   Saturday is looking to be tranquil and mostly dry. Then remnant moisture from Isaias will move in for Sunday into Monday, as high pressure departs.   The rain will spread across the region Southwest to Northeast. This won’t linger and will move through very quickly.

Tuesday a strong cold front will move through, bringing widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Behind this front the coldest air so far this season will invade the region for our Wednesday.