A quick post on the longer range!

 

Over the next few weeks we look to see ridging over the middle of the United States pushing possibly into Canada. This would set the stage for some troughing for the Northwest US into California and troughing into the Northeast US and Middle Atlantic region. We have seen  plumes of moisture (Atmospheric River) coming across the North Pacific into the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada. I think we're going to see more of these atmospheric rivers coming off the Pacific. With the pattern remaining very active in the northern jet stream, We're going to be dealing with waves of fast moving frontal systems, moving across southern Canada and the northern United States. This is going to create a cornucopia of different weather types across the northern tier of the United States.

While over the next couple of weeks a large part of the US is gonna become mild, for the Northeast US it will be a bit different It will be a bit different. While we're going to have shots of warmth We're also going to be seeing cold outbreaks as well. For our region I think overall we're gonna end up overall on the cooler side of things than not. 

The CPC is showing the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic somewhat cooler over the next 2 to 4 week. I just think it's going to be cooler than CPC is thinking.

I've been talking about the time around Christmas and a possible storm around that time.

GFS is a little faster than the EURO. The GFS shows a possible storm impacting parts of our region on Christmas day. Whereas the EURO has a storm impacting parts of the region Christmas night into the day after Christmas. 

Based on what's going on It's starting to look like Christmas Eve will be cold and dry. Also there's a chance for some snow, mix, rain later Christmas Day. The timing looks to be changing enough that a storm is possible. for the day after Christmas.

There is a chance for some kind of ice event for Pennsylvania Into the northern Middle Atlantic. With snow more likely across parts of New York State into northern and central New England.

So we could see a storm from the 24th through the 26th. It's going to come down to timing. 

12/18/2025

 

Looking at the surface chart, radar and infrared satellite.

High pressure continues to exit the region as a very strong cold front approaches the region. Ahead of the front a strong southwest flow is going to develop hiking temperatures to above average levels for today into tomorrow morning. Currently temperatures are mild and the region is dealing with a mix of sun and some clouds.

On the radar and satellite we can see the disturbance moving up out of the Midwest into the Great Lakes. As well as another disturbance in the southern stream over the Southeast US. Both of these features are going to slightly interact, which will help enhance impacts in our region.

Ahead of the cold front rain will be very heavy at times. We're also going to be seeing Embedded thunderstorms. A few of these thunderstorms could possibly be strong to severe. Due to the chance of winds mixing down to the surface 

Winds  of 10-30 miles an hour With gust of 40-50 even as high as 60 or 65 miles an hour. could bring down some trees and or power lines leading to scattered power outages and perhaps some damages. General rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.0 inches with localized higher amounts possible can be expected.  Moderate to heavy rain could lead to ponding on roadways and some localized urban flooding due to clogged drains. The cold front is going to come through the region moving west to east and should be moving across Maine Friday evening and exiting the region tomorrownight.

Behind the cold front Temperatures are going to crash. They will likely fall 30-35 ° F in a few hours.  This will likely lead to a flash freeze, causing wet surfaces to ice up and turn into black ice.

on Friday, Lake effect snow first sets up east of the  lakes Erie and Ontario and then as the system pulls away these bands will shift south and east. Those who get under the most significant parts of the band could see several inches of lake snow.

After this storm leaves the region We are going to stay in an active and volatile Pattern For the next couple of weeks, As these frontal systems come through everyday or two bringing a temperature rollercoaster with chances for rain, mix and snow. I'll be posting a small update on the long range pattern later today.

Christmas Storm ... Maybe!

 

The arctic air has moved back north with mild air taking its place.

Looking at the north American 2 meter temperature anomaly we can see all the cold air is now pushed north up over central and western Canada.

As I posted earlier today We have this week cold front coming through today And then we're going to have another much stronger frontal system for late Thursday And Friday. After that We are going to have an active pattern Several of Fast moving Frontal systems coming through. Allowing for rollercoaster temperatures and chances for some snow/ice/ rain showers, but nothing too major, As the storm track is pretty far north and these systems are moisture starved. Outside of areas near the Great Lakes where they will have to deal with some lake effect, Accumulations across the rest of the region should be fairly light. 

The question is going to be about Christmas Eve and Christmas Day! I've been talking about this possible Around Christmas time event for a little while now. 

Behind a clipper system on Tuesday We're going to have high pressure build in over the region for Christmas Eve Wednesday. This will allow cold air to be moving in and over much of the region.

Both the GFS and the EURO are showing high pressure up over southeast Canada

The GFS and  EURO show that the 2 meter temperatures across New York State, New England into Pennsylvania are cold enough for snow.

Christmas Storm

The American GFS has shortwave energy moving across the middle of the United States.  With the cold air in place over the region, As this continues to slide east It would bring a chance for some snow over part of Pennsylvania into New York State and New England. The GFS is showing a moderate storm moving across the Middle Atlantic region. On the other hand,  the European EURO currently does not show the shortwave over The US. Instead it's keeping the storm track further to the north and the overall storm weaker. This would mean little to no snow for the Northeast into the Middle Atlantic. But the EURO does show a shortwave disturbance moving across the Plains Just after Christmas.

We're 6-7 days out and it's typical for the models to go back and forth and waffle this far out. So right now, the pattern does support the idea of a storm. But it's going to depend on timing and track of the shortwave disturbance. For now it could go either way!

I will have more on this as we continue to get closer.

12/17/2025

 And so it starts!

The warm up has started. If you're not a fan of cold then you're very happy. But if you don't like the warmth you're not very happy at all!

Current temperatures

Here's a look at the 24 hour temperature change.

The surface chart and radar show high pressure is in control, with not a lot going on.

The surface chart also shows that area of low pressure just north of the great lakes dragging a cold front towards the region.  The infrared satellite shows clouds are pushing in Ahead of the cold front.

Today is going to be becoming milder and the region will stay generally dry, But a few scattered snow/rain showers will be possible during the afternoon. As high pressure pushes east End of cold front approaches, winds will be increasing during the day, with gust of 20-30 miles an hour. With the temperatures warming We will see some snow melt bringing the possibility of localized fog this evening and during the overnight tonight. As that weak cold front Moves through tonight Temperatures will cool back off a bit. Leading to the possibility of some black ice; so be careful if you're out driving around. The infrared satellite also shows a disturbance up over the Rockies That will be impacting our weather Thursday late afternoon and Friday!

Ahead of this we're going to see a strong southwest flow warm our temperatures up quite a bit, Temperatures will be above average for the first time in a few weeks. Winds of 10-30 miles an hour will be across the region With gust We've gust of 40-50 miles an hour, There could be even locally higher cost 60-65 miles an hour especially in the higher elevations. With the strong wind will be the danger of some localized power outages. Ponding on the road and some urban flooding is going to be likely with the snow melt and warm temperatures.

The strong area of low pressure Is going to push across southern Canada; ahead of the strong cold front widespread moderate to heavy rain will roll west to east across the region, with the front we will likely see some embedded thunderstorms, So don't be surprised if you hear some thunder. The front should be exiting Maine by Friday evening. 

Behind the cold front much colder air is gonna stream back into the region for Friday afternoon and Saturday. Winds will also still be very gusty. As the temperatures tumble wet surfaces will become coated with ice; so black ice will once again be an issue. This is a fast moving system So most won't see Much in the way of accumulating snow, with just scattered snow showers and flurries around. But downwind of the Great Lakes lake effect snow is gonna start back up again. With several inches possible under the most persistent bands.

12/16/2025

 

This week most of the CONUS  is dealing with a zonal flow. So our region is going to be generally milder for the next few days. 

The surface chart shows high pressure is nosing in out of the Ohio valley. Satellite and radar is showing away from the Great Lakes most of the region is seeing a lot of sun and is dry; around great lakes they are experiencing clouds and the lake effect has pushed north and is mostly in Canada or out over lake Ontario. If you step out today you will notice the temperatures are a bit milder than they have been.

The region has been so cold So long, that today and tomorrow it's gonna feel like beach weather. But in actuality these temperatures are considered seasonal across the region for this time of year. Wednesday the high pressure is going to be moving off shore.

Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front a strong southwest flow means temperatures are going to finely climb to above average. But these warm temperatures aren't going to stick around for long.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Rain is going to start late Thursday afternoon and work it's way west to east Thursday night into Friday morning. Don't be surprised if there are some embedded thunderstorms as well.  This is gonna be a fast moving system so it'll be pushing out of most of the region Friday morning into the early afternoon. With Maine dealing with the rain during the day, with rain ending Friday evening. General rainfall amounts across the region will be 0.5" - 1 .0". But there could be localized lower amounts of maybe around 0.25" and localized higher amounts that get up around  1.5" to 2 .0". The mild conditions along with the rain will lead to snow melt. While I don't expect a lot of flooding; there could end up being some ponding on the roadways or even some minor street and urban flooding due to clogged storm drains. Another thing to keep in mind is the possibility of heavy localized fog due to the melting snow.

The one thing we have to be on the lookout for Strong winds that could even be damaging in some areas. Winds of 10 to 20 miles an hour with wind gust of 30-50 miles an hour and localized wind gust of maybe as much as 60-65 mph will be possible. Behind the cold front Temperatures are going to plunge. With the wet roads black ice is gonna be a concern, as temperatures freefall.

It will continue to be windy on Friday; along with a chance for a few snow showers and or flurries away from the Great Lakes. Those around the great lakes would be dealing with more lake effect that could drop several inches of snow. Saturday Is looking like a more in the way of a tranquil day but lake effect will continue to be an issue for those downwind of the big lakes.

Sunday we will see another clipper move across Canada. This will drive another cold front allowing temperatures to once again get very cold Sunday night and Monday. With the front there will be a chance for a few snow showers and flurries. Then on Tuesday a stronger cold front comes through bringing snow showers and or rain showers.

For Christmas week 

A large part of New York State; as well as northern and central New England will continue to see shots of cold air Scooting across the region. But for Pennsylvania Maryland Maryland Delaware, New Jersey And into southern New England temperatures will average a little warmer, as you will be closer to that southern ridge. It's not going to be what I would consider a blowtorch. But it will be warm enough for rain or a mix. There is a good chance that y'all who do not have a deeper snow pack are going to lose most or all of your snow I would say this would be a especially true for those who have less than a 6"  snow pack

For Monday into Tuesday we will have a cold front bringing a shot of colder air. Then for Tuesday into Wednesday we're going to have another cold front approach and move through. This is going to allow colder air to move into the region. Just after this cold air comes into the region we are going to see a short wave disturbance heading north and east towards our region. How far north does disturbance track is the big question. If it tracks far enough south With the cold air in place There is a good chance for a snowstorm Christmas Eve and or Christmas Day. If the storm track is further north Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic would have less of a chance of seeing snow. So for now, I think A large part of New York State and northern and central New England have a fairly decent shot at seeing some kind of fresh snow on the ground  around Christmas Day.

12/15/2025

 A warming trend is on the way!

Sunday was cold and breezy. Today the cold is going to continue with clouds increasing as we go through the day. 

Surface chart and radar

We're going to have a weak clipper with a couple of shortwave troughs drop out of Canada, then move over the lower Great Lakes as it drops south and east. The clipper is getting a little boost from being over the great lakes.  But as it gets away from the lakes It is going to become weaker and much less defined. So away from the great lakes this is just going to bring some scattered snow showers that will be capable of dropping a trace to maybe an inch  across parts of the region. We will see winds picking up to 10-20 miles an hour with higher gust possible. This is going to be a fast moving system, So it's impacts won't be too bad!

The cold air moving across the still relatively warm great lakes is going to kick off lake effect snow downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. This lake effect should be weakening as we get into this evening and tonight. Winter weather advisories are up for those downwind of lake Erie . With lake effect snow warnings up for those east of lake Ontario.

Tuesday is looking like it's going to be dry with temperatures starting to moderate. Most of the region should be dry with lake effect often lake continuing to push north weakening and dissipate

Wednesday we're going to see temperatures continue to warm as high pressure starts to exit the region. Allowing temperatures to become fairly seasonal for this time of year. We are going to be having a system moving east up in Canada. What outside of a chance for Some light snow showers and flurries it shouldn't amount to much. With the warming temperatures We should have some snow melt that could lead to some fog.

Thursday we're going to be having Strong Low pressure up over the great lakes along with a cold front approach. Out ahead of this cold front, a stiff southwest flow is going to continue to pump up our temperatures. We're going to see widespread rain approach ahead of the front moving  west to east late afternoon into Friday. Rain could be locally heavy at times. General rainfall amount look to be around 0.5 of an inch to an inch. The warm temperatures and rain is going to chew up some of the snow. Snow will melt and if you have 5 inches or less there is a chance that you could lose most or all of it. With  the snow melt fog will again be an issue. I'm not  anticipating any big flooding issues . But the risk for strong wind gust is a concern

With the frontal passage winds are going to become quite breezy. Then behind the front much colder air is gonna start moving back into the region, for late Thursday and Friday, as temperatures plummet Any leftover rain should turn over to snow. This will be especially true over a large part of New York State into northern and central New England.  Expect to deal with lake effect.

For Saturday It will be very cold with most of the region staying dry. But we will have a system up in Canada That could bring some snow to northern parts of New York State and northern New England especially in those higher elevations. Along with some lake effect Falling down wind of the big lakes

Sunday will see temperatures become a little warmer; Is high pressure briefly moves in overhead. There will be a chance for a few snow showers and or flurries. For Monday we cool back off, As a cold front Moves back through the region. With the front We will see scatterbrained snow showers and flurries.

As I said yesterday these warm shots are gonna be transitory.

Hope you have a great day!

12/14/2025

 Yesterday I made a post that went into a little bit of detail on the teleconnections and what they're hinting at as we move towards and beyond Christmas. So I hope you get a chance to look that over. My daily weather post will often build on or reflect on what I previously said. So at least for me it's important to keep up-to-date on what I've been posting!

The storm that brought that snow to the northern Middle Atlantic and I-95 corridor region is pulling away. Radar is showing that the snow is done across the Middle Atlantic in to much southern new England But there is some leftover residual snow that is falling across far south east England including the Cape and off-shore islands. The low will continue to track towards Atlantic Canada where it will be blowing up into a big storm. So the Canadian Maritimes will be dealing with a lot of snow and wind today and tomorrow 

Behind the storm we're dealing with cold and breezy conditions across the region. Along with some lake effect flying downwind of  Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

These cold conditions will extend into tomorrow. As I said yesterday  across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic it has been very cold with temperatures running well below average for this point in the winter. Starting late Monday high pressure will start nosing in but we will still be dealing with a few weak shortwave troughs, keeping things a bit unsettled, Wave lake effect also falling downwind of the Great Lakes those under thntense  intense parts of the region of the snow band could see several inches of snow. Temperatures are going to start to slowly moderate for Tuesday. As the southeast ridge starts to expand northward. On Wednesday the high pressure will start to exit to the east. This will allow for strong southern flow to bring warmer air into the region.. For Wednesday and especially Thursday temperatures are going to become much warmer than they have been. But this won't be the blowtorch that i've seen some talking about. Instead temperatures are going to end up around seasonal to slightly above average for this point in the season.  For Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will be warm enough for the vast majority of the region to see rain showers.

Starting midweek we are going to see a weak shortwave moving across the southern prairies of Canada. As this tracks eastward it is going to be strengthening, For later Thursday and Friday this is going to drag a cold front across our region allowing chillier air to move back in. With the front we will see rain change over to snow (Especially in the northern and higher elevational areas) as the cold air filters in.   The lake effect machine will once again start to crank up downwind of the Great Lakes.

Over the next 7-10 days The region is going to be warmer than it has been. The jet stream Is going to be just to our south or just to our north meandering another back and forth,. So because of this,  we're going to see about some warmer temperatures intermix with some cool downs. Those who have limited to a moderate snow pack will be at a higher risk of losing their snow before Christmas. I covered my thoughts on all of this yesterday; so again I encourage you all to read it!

Here is a look at the CPC's 8-14 day temperature outlook. Showing what their thoughts are During the next couple of weeks. They were showing a lot more warmth but now they've adjusted to a cooler look.

A little snowstorm for the I-95 corridor, then what?

 

I've been laying out the storm setup for the northern Middle Atlantic and the I-95 corridor into southern New England for several days. My thoughts on that haven't changed. In fact all of the models have come into a very good agreement that corresponds to what I've been talking about and saying. So if you want to know about my ideas and general accumulations You can go back to yesterday's post and read about them. Instead this post is going to talk about what comes next as far as the pattern!

A look at sea surface temperatures.

Image credit tropical tidbits.

Looking at the image a few things stand out, 1st thing we can see is the cool water anomalies across the eastern into central equatorial pacific.  So even though the La Nina is weakening it is still sticking around! The 2nd thing that stands out, is how warm the water temperature anomalies are in the Atlantic Basin. The 3rd thing that we can see is the water temperature anomalies in the North Pacific right into the Gulf of Alaska.

In the winter outlook and pattern update post since then. I've been talking about the ENSO and how the La Nina is going to be very weak this year and how it would be short lived. That is indeed what is occurring.

The North Pacific

Comparing the temperature anomalies Across the north pacific We can see The warm blob That we had in the fall And we saw some cooler water anomalies enter the Gulf of Alaska. But since then those cool SSTs in the Gulf have been warming back up. As I said in the winter outlook the temperature anomalies in the North Pacific Indicate a good chance for a weak polar vortex and arctic outbreaks working into the central and eastern United States.

September 11

November 16th

It's been cold no doubt about that in fact this is the coldest December the region has seen in several years.

Image credit prison group with Oregon state university

With the cold and the active pattern of back to back clippers; a large part of the region has been building a snow pack.

 

The deep snow pack across Canada is helping the cold air slide down the ridge into the northeast and middle Atlantic. By keeping it from modifying. The cold conditions and setup Have led to a fairly deep snow pack across Tug Hill (the Tug is really adding to that this weekend) along with the Adirondacks into the Greens and Whites. Other areas have a moderate snow pack. And then many areas have a light snow pack. With the I-95 corridor Seeing their 1st snowstorm of the season tonight and tomorrow The vast majority of the region will have seen snow before Christmas.

what about going forward?

Those very warm SST temperature anomalies in the north pacific are a strong indicator that we are not done with cold air intrusions going forward

Madden Julian oscillation

The MJO

The MJO has left phase 8 and is now moved into the neutral Circle.

The CFS

The ECMWF

 

So with it being in the neutral phase This would be a sign that temperatures will moderate over the next several days. But the euro and some of the other models are showing MJO migrating back out into phase 8 after the middle of the month heading towards the end of the month. If this is indeed the case; that would mean heading back into cold weather around Christmas and  likely into January. If all this sounds familiar it is because I've been saying this for the last few weeks.

Eastern Pacific Oscillation

EPO

The EPO Is currently negative But it is trending towards positive. But then the models have a trending negative as we get closer to Christmas.

The EPO is a very important teleconnection to watch Because it's an important driver of cold air for the East Coast. When the EPO is positive we tend to see the pattern send warm air into Canada. Which in turn directs warm air down into the United States. When the EPO is negative,  the exact opposite happens, We see higher pressures in the East Pacific which allows the pattern to send cold air in Canada down into the Eastern and Central United States.

Where the EPO looks to be uheading  is a strong signal for a pattern change as we get around Christmas. This supports what the MJO is hinting at for the end of December into January.

The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation.

The AO and the NAO are very important as well. 

AO

When the AO is in the negative phase We tend to see the polar vortex stay weak. Looking at the arctic AO we can see it's been predominantly negative Since at least the middle of November During that time  the vortex has been very weak. This explains the Stratospheric warming events and arctic cold outbreaks across the region

NAO

When the NAO is negative we tend to see a better chance for phasing to occur between the northern and southern streams of the storm track. Over the last few weeks the NAO has been predominantly positive. This is the reason for the lack of phasing and partly the progressive nature of the pattern. 

Going forward over the next 10-14 days. Neither the AO or NAO support the idea of a lot of cold air over our region. The NAO does look to trend negative as we approach Christmas, But that remains to be seen. It's important to know that the EPO can override the phase of the NAO. So based on the idea of how the EPO looks to be trending and the idea that the MJOs is likely going to move back into phase 8 later in this month; is where I'm basing my idea of it getting colder towards the end of December into January.

If you've been reading my post you know we're going to be warming up. The warm up means that some will lose Most of your snow or all of it, over the next few over the next several days next week. If this occurs It could ruin some of y'alls prospects for snow on the ground for Christmas Day. Those with the deeper snow pack will likely hang on to enough snow to ensure snow on the ground for Christmas. Not to give false hope but there are signals in the pattern that suggest a possible storm around the time we get to into Christmas Eve and or Christmas Day. The models are suggesting and the teleconnections I've just gone over show that as we get near Christmas There is likely going to be a pattern change and we could see cold air moving back into the region. Does that mean a snowstorm for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day? Maybe! We will have to wait and see how the pattern and setup evolves over the next 10 days. Right now  it could go either way. But a chance is better than no chance.

12/12/25

 

Looking at the surface chart radar and satellite We can see a couple of shortwave troughs moving over the area and areas away from the Great Lakes is seen mainly a mix of sun and clouds and will be mostly dry. Lake effect snow is falling downwind of lake Ontario, With some weaker bands coming off of lake Erie. Winds are still gusty today And we're seeing cold temperatures But they're not as cold as it was yesterday. These lake bands will sit in place today. Then this evening into tonight These bands will drift northward as the wind direction changes. This current session of lake effect should end tonight.

 

Tomorrow we're going to have another clipper approach and move over the region

This clipper Will have a warm front lifting and followed by a cold front. Scattered snow showers Could a company the warm front And then when the arctic front comes through we could see a squall line develop moving across New York State. For most of New York state into northern and central New England 1-3 inches of general snowfall is likely. 

Weak lake effect will develop off lake Erie north of buffalo this evening. Off of lake Ontario widespread weak lake effect will develop Saturday morning. During the day tomorrow The lake effect off of Erie will drop down through buffalo and head for the South Towns and ski country into the finger lakes. The lake Ontario band will lift north consolidate and set up over northern Oswego into northern and central Lewis and south Jefferson into Saint Lawrence counties.  Bands off both lakes will become quite intense; under the heaviest parts of these bands snow rates of 3-4 inches an hour will be possible. Off of lake Erie Saturday into Sunday a foot and a half  to two feet of snow will be possible south of buffalo. While east of lake Ontario especially the Tug Hill  will end up with 2-3 + feet by Sunday afternoon, along the edge of the main lake band and into the western Adirondacks 6-12+ " or so will be possible Then around the edge of that zone 3-6 inches of snow. For the rest of the region conditions shouldn't be too bad.

We have a disturbance sitting over northwest Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba into southern Nunavut. This is going to ride the ridge down into the northern tier of the United States where it will move over the upper Great Lakes and then head towards the Ohio Valley. Then we will see this redevelop off the New Jersey coast. The last couple of days I have been talking about a ridge out west. And how it will help enhance the jet and jet streak over the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. I also said that the progressive nature of the pattern means this will be a positive tilted trough that won't allow this low pressure to dig in. So it will quickly move out to sea.

This won't be a blockbuster storm, It's a fast mover with a sharp cut off on the north and southern sides of the snow shield. But it will bring 1-4 inches of snow to the I-95 Corridor for Washington DC and New York City along with eastern Long Island. This 1-4 inches of snow will also encompass northern New Jersey, southeast New York State (Lower Hudson valley), most of Connecticut, northern Rhode Island into southeast Massachusetts including the cape and offshore islands. There could be an area of higher snow amounts of 3 to maybe 6 inches of snow across northeast Maryland, northern Delaware into southeast Pennsylvania these areas would include Philadelphia and Baltimore, Southern into central New Jersey, western Long Island, Southeast Connecticut into southern Rhode Island. Most of Massachusetts including Boston extending over into the central Hudson Valley and Capital District of New York State, into northeast Pennsylvania (Including the Poconos and Catskills) as well as part of southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire will see a coating to one inch of snow. Near and along the southern coast of Maine there could be an accumulation of less than an inch of snow. Outside of these areas away from the Great Lakes there will be a few snow showers and or flurries. The storm will quickly be exiting by later Sunday afternoon

Monday we will see a weak trough move through bringing a chance for a few rain snow showers and flurries. Monday is going to continue to be quite cold. On Tuesday another little weak trough will move through again bringing a chance for a few snow showers or flurries along with the possibility of some lake enhanced stuff coming off from the Great Lakes. Tuesday we'll see the temperatures warming up a little bit But it's still gonna be quite chilly. Wednesday high pressure will start to exit the region This will set up a southernly flow which will turn our temperatures milder. Thursday we will see a system coming out of the Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of the warm front we are going to have a southwest flow that's going to become quite gusty this will drive our temperatures even higher and they will likely be above average for this point in the season. With the warm front we will see widespread rain across the region. Then for later Thursday into Friday the cold front is going to swing through and temperatures are going to plummet. Rain will change over to widespread snow.

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