Welcome to Monday
The surface chart shows the stationary front setting up off the Coast of New England extending down across southern New Jersey into Pennsylvania. The high pressure sitting up to the north Is allowing the flow to bring in much cooler temperatures and less humid. conditions than we had over the weekend.
Satellite is showing a lot of clouds over southern New England down across southeast New York State, across Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic, With just a few clouds north and west of there. Radar shows not much going on across the region; but there are a few isolated rain showers over parts of the northern Middle Atlantic closer to that frontal boundary. Tomorrow into Wednesday will be a rinse and repeat with cool conditions and a chance for some isolated rain showers. Humidity will be climbing a bit for midweek. A weak disturbance will be moving along that stalled out frontal boundary bringing a slightly better chance for isolated rain showers on Wednesday.
On Thursday Erin will be passing well south and east of New Jersey, long island and the Cape. Southern New England into the northern Middle Atlantic should generally see wind speeds of 20 to perhaps 30 miles an hour. We will have to see if any tropical storm winds could make it to the Coast. There is a chance some of her outer rain bands could make an attempt to at least approach the Coast.
Friday we'll see high pressure build back in as Erin pulls away. Both Friday and Saturday We'll have a chance for some isolated rain showers across the region. Then on Saturday night and Sunday a cold front with a prefrontal trough will approach and move through Bringing more in the way of widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.
Tropical Atlantic
Erin
The National Hurricane Center 11 am update shows her with max sustained winds of 140 mph, central pressure of 935 mb, moving northwest at 10 mph. She has gone through a few eye wall replacement cycles and as a result is much larger than she was, Hurricane force winds extend around 80 miles from her center, with tropical storm force winds extending 230 miles from her center. She is going to continue to grow in size as she tracks north (which is normal) and then once she becomes extra tropical she will become even bigger. These growth spurts not only extend her wind-field but also expand her wave action.
Image credit Tropical tidbits
Currently She is bringing the Turks, Caicos and southeast Bahamas tropical storm conditions and heavy rain.
Image credit Tomer Burg.
Image credit Tropical tidbits Tropical Tidbits
She still looks to track between Bermuda and the Outer Banks. Currently she is a category 4 hurricane once again. There is a chance we could see some more intensification. But likely not up to category 5. As she moves into an area of higher wind Sheer she should start to slowly weaken and will likely become a category 3 through at lease Wednesday.
As I said, She is a much larger system than she was a couple of days ago, So For Wednesday and Thursday Tropical Storm force winds and some of her outer rain bands could make an impact on the Outer Banks. Hatteras island is already being evacuated. Due to the big swell and wave conditions moderate to high beach erosion is quite possible.
Elsewhere along the East Coast there is a chance that tropical storm force winds could make it into parts of the coast, but that isn't a sure thing. we'll see some coastal flooding and those inlets could have some light to perhaps moderate beach erosion due to some storm surge.
For the East Coast her biggest impact is going to be large ocean swells,so high surf and dangerous rip current. So even though it might not be the wisest decision, take care if you get into the water.her
Image credit NHC
The worst of Erin's conditions should be west of Bermuda. But tropical storm conditions are possible.
Friday and Saturday She looks to brush Newfoundland and the Avalon peninsula, The worst of her Impact should be south and east of Saint John's. But any wobbles could bring sub-tropical storm conditions onto the peninsula.
Invest 99L
On satellite 99L is fairly disorganized So we will have to keep an eye on it over the next day or so to see if it can get its act together .
The NHC has the 7 day development odds at 50%..
99L likely should track south of Erin's track. This will give it a much better chance of making it into the Caribbean. This should be getting close to the leeward islands by the end of the week.
A few weeks ago I said as we got around August 15th we would see The Atlantic wake back up and we would see a lot of activity start up in the Atlantic basin. And that has definitely been the case. We are now at that point in the season where we will quickly build towards peak, we're also definitely in Capo Verde season, Where we see tropical waves move off of Africa then work there way from the eastern Atlantic into the western Atlantic, becoming name storms.
Many thanks, as usual. Today, it just doesn't feel like Summer here 30mi/50km W of Boston. Perhaps this just a start of the beginning of the end. Good riddance as I can't stand the heat!
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