At the 8:00 am update, Erin has maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, minimum central pressure of 935MB and is moving west northwest at 20 miles an hour.
It is possible she could reach category 5 at some point, today or tomorrow. Category 5 hurricanes have a maximum sustained wind speed of 157 mph or higher.
Image credit Tomer Burg
As was feared She did indeed undergo rapid intensification. Yesterday at this time she had winds of 70 mph, She has now doubled her maximum wind speed to 145 miles an hour at 8 am this morning, making her a strong category 4 hurricane.
Here is a look at infrared satellite showing Erin is looking healthy with a very well defined. Her outer rain bands beginning to impact the islands in the northwest Caribbean.
Her overall forecast remains generally the same
She has wobbled a little bit to the south and west. These kind of wobbles are normal. She is moving through that weakness between the strengthening and growing subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and that strong area of high pressure over the United States. It still looks like she is going to pass between the US East Coast and Bermuda.
As the trough builds into Southwest Canada and the Northeast. She will start to recurve out to sea. While it's extremely likely She is going to stay well off the East Coast of the US and stay away from Atlantic Canada. As well as staying west of Bermuda. This will keep her worst impacts out over the Atlantic. But, She will bring dangerous surf and rip tides to the East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada and Bermuda.
I saw a report that said that there isn’t even a 5% chance of Erin impacting the coast with anything except high surf and riptides.Do you agree,I realize that your forecast agree but I talking about the less than 5% statement.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if I'd go as far as to say less than 5%. But the odds of ERIN making a landfall anywhere on the east coast of the US is extremely low. She is a powerful category 5 hurricane. One side of the coin says she is strong enough that she will feel that pull to the north and want to follow it. But the other side of the coin says being as strong as she is She's going to want to try to keep going in the same direction, she is like an ocean liner going full speed ahead. Stuff like that just can't turn on a dime. She's on a roadway laid out between the high pressure over the US And that strengthening Bermuda high sub tropical ridge. She can't completely get away from that type of steering current. Also she is going to have to go north and east at some point due to that trough that is going to be setting up over the Northeast into Southwest Canada. Depending on how much she wobbles and the timing of that trough will be a big part of how far west she can come. It's possible she could get close enough to bring some wind action to the Outer Banks, Long Island, Cape Cod and Nantucket. We have a few days to watch and see how all this is going to set up, so we will see!
ReplyDeleteGreat reply,some friends heading down too N.C..Today with the eye wall replacement we heard a bit of a retraction and it was as you said.Erin looks too increase in size and become much larger so some of the outer rain bands may drop some rain and it may get somewhat breezy but that the steering would force a move to the Northeast but that they would be watching too see how far West the the Western edge was when she restrengthened. Guys Not in your class.
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