08/15/2025

 

Well we made it to Friday

I received several responses to the question I asked yesterday. About how in depth y'all want these forecast outlooks to be? So far all the responses have favored keeping things as they are and diving into a bit of detail with these forecast. I do think a little meteorological knowledge is a good thing for the general public. When I was storm chasing I saw the result of people making foolish decisions Because they just didn't understand What they were being told. So for that reason, I started the facebook weather pages and this blog, to try to instill a little education into the subject, Thereby keeping all y'all a little bit safer.

Anyway on to today's forecast.

The surface chart and radar show high pressure building  with not a lot going on across Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. But surface chart tell show troughling developing over central Canada,  that will have implications next week on Erin.

Today the overall temperatures and humidity are fairly seasonal and comfortable. With only a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers or rouge thunderstorms. These same general conditions should continue for Saturday as well. Late Saturday as that system to our west gets closer a cold front will be approaching. Ahead of this temperatures and humidity will start to increase over New York State and Pennsylvania. The cold front and a prefrontal trough will move into New York State and northwest Pennsylvania Sunday morning, bringing a chance for scattered isolated  rain showers and non severe thunderstorms. This looks to reach central New York State, western into central Pennsylvania around midday.  The areas ahead of the front will continue to be warm and somewhat humid. Then the cold front will be moving into Northern New England eastern New York state and eastern Pennsylvania during the afternoon into the evening. Then into eastern New England Add northern Middle Atlantic Sunday night into Monday morning. Behind the  cold front temperatures for the 1st half of next week are going to be generally below average with low humidity.

Tropics

Image credit National Hurricane center

Invest 98L

There is still a crack in the window that could allow 98L to become a tropical depression But regardless Of this, 98L will be moving ashore and is moving inland over northeast Mexico and Southeast Texas, in the next 12-18 hours. Bring a lot of heavy rain to Northwest Mexico and Southeast Texas. This will lead to the possibility of flash flooding.

Erin

Erin Struggled during the overnight. But she has gotten her act together and became a hurricane this morning, making her the 1st hurricane of the Atlantic 2025 season. Currently the National Hurricane Center has her with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, minimum central pressure of 996mb. She has started that anticipated turn northward, currently she is moving west- northwest at 18 mph.

Image credit Tomer Burg

This should keep her away from the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. But she will get close enough for some impact. So Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Leeward Islands.  She also looks to stay several hundred miles east of the Bahamas and Florida.

Image credit Tropical tidbits

On satellite She has robust heavy convection around her center, as upper level outflow continues to improve. The hurricane hunter reconnaissance is also reporting a closed eye wall. She is currently moving over  Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) that are around 82°F But she will be moving into waters that are generally 84-86°F. Wind shear is lessening and should become fairly light during the weekend into early next week. She is also vertically stacked which means her low level center and upper level center are on top of each other, Along with of her having good outflow, all these conditions mean she is poised for quite a bit of intensification and strengthening moving forward. 

Over the weekend she will continue to  strengthen, and will likely become a major hurricane by Sunday, as I've been saying possibly even a category 4. There is still a chance that she could go through a phase of rapid intensification, which is defined by an increase in wind speed of 35 mph over a 24 hour period.

Image credit Alex Boreham/CyclonicWx

She still looks to start more of a northward turn east of the Turks and Caico's, staying a few hundred miles from the Bahamas and Florida. She should continue to slowly make that turn northward, as she moves around that strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge, before turning more sharply north and east by mid next week, due to the location and orientation of the trough that will be over Southeast Canada into the Northeast. I'm still expecting her to stay away from the East Coast, Passing between the Coast and Bermuda. Those from the Carolinas up into New England as well as Atlantic Canada,  and especially Bermuda should still closely monitor Erin's progress.

Image credit Weathermodels website

Despite staying well east of the East Coast. She will still bring a lot of heavy swell and high waves along with dangerous rip currents all along the East Coast.