January 30th, 2025

 

Behind the Alberta Clipper we have quiet conditions. Winds have subsided and temperatures are rather cool. High pressure centered up over the Adirondacks is going to drop south and east. Southwest winds all cause temperatures to climb today and tomorrow.

We have an upper-level low exiting the southern Plains headed for the Ohio Valley. Looking at the satellite image we can see a lot of precipitation and convection (thunderstorms) ahead of the low pressure. The setup is such that this will be weakening a little before it approaches our region. Precipitation will move into southwest Pennsylvania, tonight, then this will move across the rest of the region during the overnight into Friday. With the warm temperatures this will be primarily a rain maker for much of Pennsylvania Middle Atlantic, Southeast New York State, into Connecticut, Rhode Island into southeast Massachusetts.  These areas look to see a general ¼ to ¾ of an inch with locally spots seeing 1 to 1.25 inches. Those with the best chance for mixed precipitation across the Twin Tiers of Pennsylvania and New York State into Massachusetts into southeast Maine. There could be just enough cold air in parts of the Poconos, Catskills, Lehigh Valley, across southern Hudson Valley into the Hudson highlands and parts of the Helderbergs to see some ice. Ice could add up to around a 1/10 of an inch. These areas could see a dusting to an inch of snow. North of I-90 in New York State as well as Vermont, New Hampshire into parts of Maine, it looks to stay primarily snow, a general 1-3 inches of snow is possible, along with a chance for some mixing. Parts of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens into the northern Berkshires could see 3-6 inches of snow with some higher amounts possible. Cold air will come in behind the storm, allowing for cold for Friday into Saturday as high pressure sets up.  We won’t be able to hold on to the high for long, as another area of low pressure approaches on Sunday, bringing a chance for snow/mix/rain. The active pattern along with up and down temperatures will be with us for next week.

January 29th, 2025

 

We have the Alberta Clipper centered a little north of Lake Ontario. With the front we have a warm front draped over New York State and southern New England, with an approaching strong cold front from the west. Ahead of the front temperatures are seasonal across northern areas and slightly above average for southern areas. As the clipper continues to move east, it will deepen and winds will increase. During the afternoon into tonight winds of 20-30 mph with gust of 40 to 50 mph will be possible. The clipper has brought several inches of snow to western and northwestern New York State. As the snow continues to push south and east snow amounts will fall as the snow more or less falls apart, but there will be scattered to isolated snow showers.  Lake effect snow bands east of the Great Lakes will drop south and east tonight bringing a few inches of snow southeast of the lakes, especially Lake Ontario. The bands will sit there during the overnight before lifting back north and weaken during the day.

The system will pull away tonight into tomorrow, as high pressure builds in, it will it will cool down as a brief burst of arctic air moves in overhead, temperatures over northern areas being below average with the southern areas seeing temperatures drop back to seasonal. Away from Lake Ontario the rest of the region should be quiet. Thursday night low pressure will be approaching, with the warm temperatures this will be a rain event for much of the region. Rain will move into Southwest Pennsylvania later Thursday evening, these rain showers will work there way east during the overnight, reaching the Middle Atlantic Friday morning, then moving into southeast New England by Friday afternoon.  During Friday Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Southeast New York State and Southern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts this will likely stay all rain. Those north of I-90 could see a mix/snow. Then as the colder air comes in behind the system, rain and mix will see a change over to some snow across northern Pennsylvania New York State and across northern New England into northern Connecticut.  There going to be a chance for some ice for the Catskills, Poconos, into parts of the southern Hudson Valley and northwest New Jersey.

The weekend will be cold as high pressure sits overhead. Sunday the high pressure will start to push east, ahead of another area of low pressure approaching, the clipper looks to be weak. High pressure moves in for Tuesday, than another area of low pressure will move through for Wednesday. 

 

 

January 28th, 2025

 

 

 

The squall line that brought high winds and several inches of snow to parts of western and northern New York State as well as parts of northern New England, weakened as it pushed south and east bringing snow showers and some squalls as it went. Ahead of the front we have southwest winds bringing in warmer air, with much colder air coming in behind the front on northwest winds, these northwest winds will gradually lessen as we move through the day. Those ahead of the front will see a few isolated shower showers, with little to no accumulation.

Another Alberta Clipper currently over the Upper Great Lakes will come through tonight into tomorrow morning. The clipper will create breezy conditions. This will pass over southeast Canada and northern New York State into northern New England. This will bring a general coating to 3 inches of snow across New York State and northern into central New England, those in the Greens and Berkshires as well as the Catskills could see 2-5 inches. Northern Connecticut could see a dusting to maybe an inch.  Those in northern New York State could see 5-8 with locally higher amounts possible the clipper will be pulling away tomorrow morning with lingering snow showers around, as colder air quickly moves back in. Parts of Pennsylvania and New York state could see a flash freeze.

 

For the end of week, a system currently over the Southwest CONUS, will move toward the Ohio Valley, Friday ahead of the system, temperatures will warm across the region. With the warm air, this looks to be primarily a rain/mix event for Southern New York State Pennsylvania, the Middle Atlantic into southern and central New England. North of there a snow mix will be possible. Colder air will try and move into the Region for late Friday into Saturday, this could turn rain/mix over to snow for a large part of Pennsylvania and New York State. How far south and east this cold air will push will depend on the location of high pressure off the Coast.

 

 

January 27th, 2025

 

January has been very wintery. We’ve had several Clippers and a few moderate snowstorms, including one that brought snow to the I-95. It’s also been the coldest January in several years. Here is a look at the Prism temperature averages and temperature anomaly for January.  Many of us have seen quite a bit of snow overall. This is especially true in the Snowbelts where well above average snow has fallen. But there are a few areas, that typically see snow, that haven’t seen to much. But overall, this has been a great month for snow lovers.

 

 

This active pattern looks to continue at least for the next couple of weeks bringing snow to the region, especially the northern tier of Pennsylvania, New York State and northern into central New England.

 

 

Today is seasonally mild with lots of sun. Winds are light now, but that will be changing.  We have a few shortwave troughs and two clippers that will drop out of Canada with stronger cold fronts that will roll through tonight through Wednesday.  Ahead of the first front southwest winds will pick up later today into Tuesday. Winds of 10-25 mph, with gust of 35-45 mph, across a large part of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England. The winds will be even stronger for Northern New York State where gust of 50-60 mph will be possible. This will lead to white outs and likely scattered power outages.

When the arctic front passes through it will bring snow showers and snow squalls. The front will bring Much of the region snow showers with a dusting to 3 inches possible, those who see the squalls will likely see another 1-3 inches of quick falling snow. Areas closer to the lakes and across northern New York State and northern New England could see 3-6 inches, areas to the south will see a rain/mix. The 2^nd arctic front will roll through later Tuesday into Wednesday. This will act similar to the first one, bringing a few inches of snow to northern Pennsylvania, much of New York State and Northern into Central New England. Area’s south of there will see rain with some mixing possible.

Behind each of these fronts there will be lake effect falling downwind of the Big Lakes.

Thursday turns colder with below average temperatures, but temperatures will start warming again for Friday. The coming weekend into next week is looking to be warmer as the cold air shifts west for a bit, but by next weekend it will make a return.

 

 

 

January 26th, 2025

 

The parade of clippers continues.

This weekend hasn’t been super cold, but temperatures are still slightly below average. We had a warm front lift into the region yesterday, so temperatures today are a bit warmer than yesterday. West winds will pick up today, these winds will be 10-20mph, with widespread gust of 30 to 40 mph. For those closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, the winds could gust even higher with gust of 50-60 mph possible.

The flow is causing lake effect snow to fall downwind of Lake Eire and especially Lake Ontario, due to the fact that Lake Ontario is virtually ice free, while Lake Erie is almost iced over. The 10-15 % of Lake Eire that is unfrozen, is still enough for weaker and more localized lake snow bands, so a few inches will be possible. For y’all downwind of Lake Ontario, those under the most persistent bands will see another 6-12 inches of snow with locally higher amounts by tomorrow morning.  The lake effect should taper off tomorrow morning.

Tuesday we will see an arctic front approach ahead of another clipper system.  As the cold front rolls through on Tuesday, it will kick off snow showers and some snow squalls, these squalls could drop a quick inch or two of snow. The clipper system moving over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, will be moisture starved but could bring a few inches of snow for parts of New York State, and northern and central New England.

The places most likely to see a few inches of snow during the first half of the week will be across Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York State including the Finger Lakes and northern New York State (north of I-90) and across northern into central New England. Those downwind of the Great Lakes will likely be dealing with more lake effect snow. Those across southern New England back into much of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic could see a few snow showers or flurries with little to no accumulation. 

 

Behind the clipper much colder air will work into the region for Thursday into Saturday. lake effect snow will again be an issue for those downwind of the Big Lakes. The below average temperatures will stick around for the end of the week into early next week. But then milder air looks to work in during later Saturday into the first week of February. This stretch of cold, doesn’t look to be quite as cold as the recent bout we’ve had. When we get around the 2nd or 3^rd of February; a disturbance looks to move near or over our region. Precipitation type will depend on temperatures, but IMO ice could end up being a concern.

 

Moving forward, the general storm track looks to be further west than it has been. This would mean snow storms would be more likely over the central and northern Plains into the Great Lakes. If this occurs, our region would be on the warm side of these systems leading a greater likelihood of rain/mix events. But there are hints that the overall cold pattern could make a comeback by the middle of February. I do think February will see a lot of back and forth.  

 

 

January 24th, 2025

 

Radar shows not a lot going on across the region. We have a frontal boundary over the region causing a few snow showers with most staying dry. But we still have those bands of lake effect falling downwind, a general 1-3 inches for those under these bands, with those closer to the lakes seeing perhaps 3-6 inches.

We have seen a fairly long stretch of arctic air. This Siberian air is starting to weaken and will slowly slide north and east today through the weekend. Over the Weekend, temperatures will become seasonal. We will have a clipper to our north accompanied with a cold front come through later Saturday into Sunday. This will bring snow showers to parts of the northern tier of Pennsylvania, as well as New York State, northern and central New England. those south of these areas should stay mostly dry. The front moving over the Great Lakes will kick off some lake effect snow for Saturday night into Sunday, a foot or two will be possible for some.

Temperatures will stay seasonal for most of next week. The overall pattern is looking to stay generally like we’re dealing with today. Clipper systems passing to our north, keeping the weather unsettled over northern areas and generally dry for southern areas. If the clippers track farther south, the snow would move south with it. The best chance of this happening, looks to be on Tuesday into Wednesday. We turn colder on Thursday. We will be watching a system approach later Thursday and Friday; could we see more in the way of widespread snow/mix from this in parts of the region? Maybe

The last couple of days, I’ve been laying out my overall thoughts for February. Showing how we still have plenty of cold air in the pattern, as well as chances for more cold air outbreaks. Depending on storm track and timing between the cold and warm incursions we could see more snow/mix events during February. So winter isn’t over just yet.  

January 23rd, 2025

 

This morning was quite cold, but the arctic outbreak is starting to lose its grip. The surface chart shows high pressure is in control, providing the sun and clouds. The radar shows some snow showers over the region as a shortwave moves through. These showers will have more bark than bite, so not much in the way of accumulation, those downwind of the Great Lakes could see some lake enhancement that could cause a couple of inches of accumulation in those areas, higher amounts will be possible closer to the lakes. The vast majority of y’all should stay dry today.

Tomorrow and Saturday should generally be a rinse and repeat of today’s weather. But temperatures will be getting warmer. Sunday a shortwave disturbance that’s a little stronger, pass to our north, this will bring snow showers and squalls across New York State into parts of northern Pennsylvania and northern and central New England, lake effect snow will likely start up downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

As we move though next week the same unsettled weather pattern will be in place with temperatures becoming a bit milder becoming what we would expect for this time of year. Each day will see a disturbance pass to our north resulting in snow flurries and snow showers across the northern areas, with basically dry conditions for the southern areas.  Thursday will see a disturbance approach, this will likely bring rain to Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic, depending on the temperature this rain could encompass northern areas as well.  

  

Details on the general pattern for February

 

The La Nina is weakening; so, it will likely be very short lived. This will keep its influence muted. So other teleconnections will have more input into the pattern.

 

The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance that propagates (moves) across the Earths equatorial tropical regions then returns to its starting point. It has a great impact on the30- to 90-day variability in the temperature and precipitation patterns. We track its movement on the MJO phase chart as it moves through 8 phases. Each phase has an impact on different parts of the Planet. These impacts vary depending on the time of year.

Over the last 10 days, the MJO quickly moved through phases 8-2; this time of year, these phases are typically cold phases in the central and eastern CONUS. We’re now in phase 3; this time of year, phases 3-4 are considered warm phases. The MJO will move across these phases over the next 7-10 days. Then it looks to move into the center (null) circle on the phase chart. When it’s inside the circle, the MJO influence on the pattern is greatly reduced. The MJO looks to move into phase 1 around the middle of February, then from there into phase 2 over the rest of the month.   

 

These charts show the temperature and precipitation anomalies as the MJO propagates through the phases.  

 

 

Based on all of this, February is going to continue with this roller coaster temperature pattern. The arctic air is going to try and push into the region and that southeast ridge is going to try and come north. So, we should see cold air at times, but I don’t think the temperature anomalies will be as cold as they have been.

As far as winter storms in general. The pattern going forward for mid-February the primary storm tracks look to be the Middle Atlantic into the Southeast. While not impossible major blockbuster storms coming up the Coast will be hard to come-by, with the AO and NAO staying generally neutral to positive; the prospect for strong blocking is fairly low.

The pattern has been active for much of the winter. I don’t see this stopping. So, most of the storms moving forward, should be weak to moderate events, that will depend on how the northern polar jet and southern subtropical jet interact. There is plenty of cold air still in the pattern. If the timing works out and some of that southern moisture can come into play, moderate snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic up into New England will be possible. One or two of these could be larger if the timing and setup is perfect.

 

January 22nd, 2025

 

The system that brought the record-breaking snow from Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida into the Southeast is pulling away, but not before clipping areas like the Jersey Shore with some very light snow.

We have high pressure taking charge, providing the vast majority of the region with clear skies. The lake effect snow is still falling, the bands are weaker and should taper off during the afternoon. I ended up with a total of 6.4 feet for the event. There is even a bit of ocean effect snow falling in parts of the Coast like Cape Cod.  We’ve been dealing with this arctic blast for a few days, but that is going to start lifting out of here later this afternoon into tonight. So, we will see temperatures much closer to seasonal tomorrow and over the weekend. The breeze will calm down over the next couple of days, making it feel fairly nice.

We have a few shortwave troughs out over the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, these are going to rotate through the region over the next few days, bringing a few snow showers and flurries, any accumulations should be generally very light, there will also be lake effect and lake enhanced snow coming off the Great Lakes, but this will also be light, and nowhere near what the snowbelts have just gone through.  The biggest disturbance will move through on Sunday. Low Pressure will pass to our north, ahead of this, southwest winds will increase temperatures a to slightly above average for this time of year. Monday a trough will be pushing down out of Canada. This will keep a storm system to our south. But northern Parts of the region could see a few snow showers as the trough dips south.  Tuesday and Wednesday will see more shortwaves move through keeping the threat for a few snow showers around. Wednesday will see a disturbance pass to our north; milder temperatures will be pushing in from the south. So, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and southern New England will likely be rain with the higher elevation seeing a mix. For those north of there, some snow/mix can be expected.  Pass midweek, the pattern is going to change to one that is much milder for the start of February. During winter 2024-2025 we have seen several polar vortex events where it stretched, bringing several cold air invasions. We’ve seen the high latitude blocking and PV duke it out several times, which has led to these back-and-forth weather conditions we’ve seen. The AO is looking to become positive. Which will make it much harder to get much in the way of blocking. I don’t think we’re done seeing the PV stretch trying to bring in colder during February; but the question will be the blocking; I think blocking will be hard to come by during February. So, while we could see some more cold events during February, I don’t think they will be the super cold outbreaks we’ve seen at times this winter.  I don’t see any major storms over the next 7-10 days. Could we see a major storm or two during February? Yes! But that will very much be depending on timing of the systems, trough axis and extent of blocking at the time.

Snow on the Gulf Coast beaches.

 

Amazing snowstorm for the deep south!

Here is a picture out of New Orleans.

 

Here is a look at where all of this cold air in the Northeast is coming from. Tonight the cold and wind will make for brutal and dangerous conditions. So, dress appropriate if going outdoors for even a short time. 

 The cold has made it all the way to the Gulf Coast. 

This has set up a severe temperature gradient between the dry cold air in the teens to low 20’s, and the tropical warm moist air out over the Gulf. So, winds are very strong, leading to windchill. As I said earlier, this is going to be hugging the Gulf and southern East coasts.

 

The snow, sleet and Ice is flying on the Gulf Coast. This is an historic snowfall for the Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast many places have seen 4 to 6 inches of snow so far, with a good chance for another 2-4 inches of additional snowfall across that region.

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This is a near to record-breaking snowstorm for southeast Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. For the first time ever, the National Weather Service in Lake Charles issued a blizzard warning for portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The snow will continue to move east, bringing snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern Florida into the Southeast. The snow will pile up across Pensacola, with significant ice falling across Jacksonville. Then all of this will be heading for Savanna, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington and the Outer Banks.

Those in parts of New England might be a little jealous.

 

 

 

 

January 21th, 2025

 

Today is very cold with the breeze bringing low wind chills.

The extremely cold air is pushing to the Gulf Coast. The storm forming will ride the boundary and bring, the Gulf Coast, across northern Florida and up toward the Outer banks of North Carolina significant snow; parts of this region could see 8-10 inches of very heavy snow, with ice being a major concern as well. For the deep south this will be an historic storm.    

This storm is looking to hug the Southeast Coast, the storm is going to be stronger than it looked to be, so the northern extent of this could bring very light snow into parts of southern Maryland, southern Delaware and southern New Jersey, there is a chance this light snow could clip Cape Cod.

We could see a chance for some snow showers and flurries with the cold front as it continues to approach and push its way south and east. But little to no snow accumulation is expected. Today the frigid air will continue to settle into the region, with the fresh snowpack assisting keeping things cold. Most of the Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic will be dealing with a mix of clouds and sunny skies. But for those downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario it’s going to be a different story.

Radar shows heavy lake snow bands downwind of both lakes. These bands will continue today. Those downwind of Lake Erie could see another foot or two before the snow band weakens and winds down tomorrow morning. Up here on the Tug Hill, I’ve been getting hit hard. As of this writing I have seen 2.5 to 3 feet of snow. The snow is going to continue to fall into tomorrow afternoon. Bringing another 2-4 feet of snow to the Northern into Central Tug Hill. Some of the Lake snows will reach into the western Adirondacks. These bands will be wavering a bit so those south of the band could pick up a few inches of snow today. Snow should wind down during the afternoon tomorrow.

The gusty winds will be blowing the snow around quite a bit, with snow rates of 2-3 inches per hour, white outs and blizzard like conditions will make driving difficult to impossible.

The brutal cold will stick with us for tomorrow, but winds will be lighter so it might not feel as brutal.  

A weak disturbance will roll through Thursday into Friday, but any snow will be very light. The farther north you are the better your chance of seeing any snow. This disturbance will help push this arctic mass out of the region for Thursday and especially on Friday. Thursday will start cold but temperatures will start to warm during the day. Friday and the weekend will see temperatures closer to seasonal, but they will likely still be below average. Sunday into Monday another weak disturbance will roll through, bringing another risk for general snow showers for parts of the region.

 

As we get into the last few days of January, the pattern is going to be changing, as troughing looks to develop near Alaska and then drop into the Western CONUS. This will change the northern storm track allowing storms to move over the Northwest CONUS, instead of dropping down out of Canada. The trough ridge pattern will set up for a west to southwest flow across the CONUS. This will allow for ridging to start building into the Northeast. So, as we get into February, we could see temperatures become milder.  But this is very long range and things could change, so we will see.

January 20th, 2025

 

The yesterday’s storm is heading out toward the Canadian Maritimes. Radar shows the snow move with it; most of the region is seeing dry but breezy conditions; with the exception for those closer to the Great Lakes, where lake effect snow bands are developing. Please let me know how the snow ended up for where all y'all are.

The lake snow developing ahead of the arctic blast will be fairly light today. Today will see muti-bands, but has the setup gets more supportive these will become one band this afternoon. As the winds continue to shift north the bands will set up east of the Lakes, this will set the stage for a few days of heavy lake effect snow, primarily south of Buffalo and areas east of Lake Ontario, off of Lake Erie general snow amounts of 1-2 feet, with 2-to 3 feet under the most persistent band. Off of Lake Ontario a general 2-4 feet of snow is likely, with parts of the tug hill seeing 4-6 feet when all is said and done.

The lake snows will be winding down off of Lake Erie during Wednesday, with the Lake Ontario band beginning to wind down Wednesday evening into Thursday. Snow rates of 2-4+ inches per hour and the gusty winds will create white out and blizzard like conditions, making travel very difficult to impossible.

The next few days are going to see the coldest air of the season. Here are 2-meter, 850 mb and 500 mb GFS temperature charts, from Pivotal Weather, showing the extent of the cold arctic air mass. The cold is going to make it to the Gulf Coast and Florida. We’re going to see low pressure develop in the Gulf just south of Texas, with the cold southeast Texas will see snow and some ice, while southern Texas seeing more in the way of ice. This low will move east, bringing snow and ice to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida, snow will be possible even on the Coast. With the strong arctic high to the north, this storm should stay suppressed well to the South, keeping the storm from coming up the Coast, instead it will head out to sea.

GFS's idea on wind chills for the next couple of days

After Wednesday we will start to warm up, with temperatures getting closer to seasonal by the Weekend. But the general below average temperature pattern will be with us for the rest of January. Once the cold starts to lose it grip over the weekend, we could see chances for snow to return Saturday night and Sunday.

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January 19th, 2025

 

Radar shows the snow moving north and east across the region. We have a trough pushing east across Pennsylvania and New York State, with low pressure over the Carolinas, which is transferring its energy to the Coast. This will ride up the Coast.

Snow looks to reach Boston around 5-6 PM and then for Maine 8-9 PM

Here is my latest and final snowfall map for this storm. These are general amounts so there could be lower or higher amounts in parts of these areas. But I think there is a greater likelihood for the amounts to be on the lower side rather than the higher side. The track has changed a little. But we have dry air overhead, it will take awhile for that to moisten up, before steady snow falls, with the cold air, this will be overall a fluffy snow, with perhaps a little bit of wetter snow to start. So forecasting snowfall is tricky. 

NWS watches and warnings

This is a fast-moving storm and it will be pulling away tomorrow morning.

Dry air on the onset, which would eat up snow before it hits the ground. (If it doesn't hit the ground, it isn't measured, and it doesn't count)

Colder surface temperatures, which you can usually squeeze out a lot of moisture from.

We have an arctic airmass moving into the region, due to arctic high pressure in the Plains with a lobe of the Polar Vortex just to our north in Canada. This airmass originated in Siberia so the temperatures will be very cold, with a good chance for daily record high/lows being broken for many of us. As the storm ramps up, winds will become very gusty into Wednesday. This will make for dangerous windchills. So remember your cold weather safety rules. The cold could also lead to some power outages across the region, so have a plan in place incase that happens.

Lake Effect snow, with the arctic air moving over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, those east of the Lakes will likely see another significant lake snow event with feet of snow falling Monday through Wednesday.

Here is a forecast map from NWS Buffalo for the Monday through Wednesday lake effect event.

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