Wet and stormy today with a look at the long range.

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

Today

On the surface chart we can see low pressure. This is going to strengthen and travel over the St. Lawrence Valley. We have that attached warm front lifting through the region, bringing milder air out of the southwest but also widespread rainfall that occasionally heavy, there will be a lull in the activity this afternoon. This will allow the atmosphere to destabilize more and create the risk for some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe, the with main risk being damaging winds. Outside of the thunderstorm risk there will also be a risk for isolated strong and gusty winds ahead of the approaching cold front. Which will bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Those with the highest risk for seeing of damaging winds, severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two will be across eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New York, where the SPC has a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. There is a chance that western Connecticut gets into some of this. The best time for any severe weather will be midafternoon into 9-10 pm.

 

Behind the cold front winds will be gusting to 30-50 mph, as a blast of cold air moves into the region. This is going to be the coldest air so far this season. These northwest winds will drive in well below average cold air. So tonight, and tomorrow will be quite chilly. Tomorrow will be chilly with the temperatures barely recovering from their morning lows.  With wind gust of 20-35 mph making, it feel even colder.  I still expect the higher elevations of the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, to see some snow showers overnight into Saturday morning most across northern New York State and northern New England will see little to no accumulation. But a slushy inch or two is possible in the higher spots, perhaps a bit more than that for some living in the peeks.

To the northwest, temps will fall into the 20s. Locally, we will struggle to drop below 40, but the wind will make it feel closer to freezing here.

The strong wind will begin to diminish as we get into Saturday night as high pressure builds into the region.  This area of high pressure will have some staying power. Leading to moderating temperatures becoming near average and generally dry weather for Sunday.  We will have some low pressure to our south and east on Monday, but other than a few showers along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Coast, the day should stay dry.  This warming trend and dry conditions will continue into Thursday with temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday 10-20 degrees above the historical average.  On Thursday low pressure once again looks to be sitting south and east of the region, bringing a chance for some rain showers for those closer to the coast, again everyone else should be dry.  Friday will see high pressure build back in pushing the low out of here leading to a very nice Fall Day.

Long Range

The very strong El Ninno is forecast to be the main driver of weather across the United States this winter, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said Oct. 15 in their annual winter outlook.

NOAA’s Updated Winter Temperature Outlook

NOAA’s temperature outlook favors warmer-than-average conditions across much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

NOAA’s Winter Precipitation Forecast

NOAA favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern United States, including California, the Southwest and portions of the southern Rockies. The wetter signal also extends across much of the Southeast and along the East Coast.

 

You can see that southern storm track I talked about in the Winter Outlook. 

El Nino

SST anomalies in the four El Nino zones are Nino 4 at 0.2ºC, Nino 3.4 at 2.4ºC Nino 3 at 3.4ºC and Nino 1+2 at 4.4ºC. This shows we’re definitely in a very strong (super) El Nino.

This is the reason for that strong active Subtropical Jet

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

As I’ve been saying for the last several months; we’re in a negative PDO. This is the first time in recorded history a Super El Nino has seen the PDO in this phase. The temperature difference between the northern Pacific and the cold near to the Arctic Circle, is leading to these near continual Aleutian lows setting up.  The air rotates around them, directing warm moist air into Northwestern Canada, cutting off a lot of the cold air from moving south.

Both of these are the reason for the pattern looking the way it is.  

As I’ve discussed since I released part one of the winter outlook, the long wave pattern is becoming active and very amplified.  We have these strong storms crossing the Anadyr Gulf and Bering Sea and slamming into Alaska; so, the Pacific Jet is very active. Because of these strong Aleutian Lows The storm track will adjust southward and more of these storms will impact California; depending on the longwave pattern at the time, some of these storms will move into the Plains and hook back into Canada, but others will move along the Subtropical Jet across the Southern and Southeast, with some of these moving up the East Coast. During the upcoming winter a lot warmer than average air will be hanging around the northern tier of the U.S. But not all the time. As I was saying in the winter outlook, there could be quite a few nor’easters this winter.  This topsy Turvey pattern is going to be the predominate pattern for winter 2026-2027.  Warm and cold spells will impact the lower 48. This could lead to a winter pattern that will surprise many. The outlook does cover all of this in great detail. So, if you haven’t read it, you should. I will release part 2 in a few weeks.

 

 Have a great weekend