08/21/2025

 

The surface chart Shows the stalled out frontal boundary acting as a traffic cop, directing Erin out to sea. She currently has winds of 105mph. Making her a category 2 hurricane. Her minimum central pressure Is 945MB And she is starting to make that turn to the northeast and is currently moving north-northeast at 17 mph. 

Today will remain cool And as Aaron continues to pull away She is going to bring enhanced wave action, dangerous rip currents, light moderate coastal flooding and some beach erosion as well as very breezy conditions to the coast. These conditions will extend into tomorrow.

Today we'll see a lot of clouds But as high pressure approaching later today and tonight We will see skies start to clear. This will relieve lead to a nice Friday and most of Saturday. Over the weekend We will see temperatures climb a little bit and humidity start to increase. Then for Saturday night and Sunday A cold front will be approaching That will lead to the chance for some rain showers and thunderstorms for Sunday into Monday. Behind this cold front we will cool back off for most of next week. Next week we will also be dealing with a series of That will come through the region Keeping things a bit unsettled with isolated rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Tropical Atlantic.

Erin

She stayed about 250 miles East of the Outer Banks. As I said above She is going to continue to # the middle middle Atlantic and northeast coast Today and tomorrow. And then Atlantic Canada through Saturday

Image credit Tomer Burg

Soon to be Fernand 

Invest 98L has current 7 day odds of development at 70% by the national hurricane center. With no high pressure blocking To the north 98L will undoubtedly Turn away from Leeward islands and follow in Erin's wake tracking north. This has a better chance Tracking perhaps east of Bermuda. If this does end up being the case Then she will stay very far away from the East Coast of the US.

Invest 99L

99L Has a 40% of development over the next 7 days. 

We also have a A robust Tropical wave that will be coming off the west coast of Africa This will bear keeping an eye on.

There is that spot in the middle of the northern Atlantic That the national hurricane center is giving 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. This is tracking east And will have no impact on the US.

Tomorrow I'm taking a day off so there will be no post. So have a great weekend and unless something major happens, I'll see you on Monday.

08/20/2025

 We have that cold front With the upper level trough moving across the region today This will provide scattered rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

As the cold front And the tropical moisture streaming northward away from Erin there will be scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over southern new England back down into the middle Atlantic region. Some of these showers or thunderstorms will be capable of tropical downpours, if you get caught in one of these downpours you could see quite a bit of rain. That could lead to some urban or flash flooding.

Erin

Image credit Tomer Burg

Image credit Pivotal weather

Erin is Starting to feel that upper level trough dropping south and east. This is going to shield us from any direct impacts. As she starts to make that final turn that will carry her out to sea.

She did re-intensify to a category 3 hurricane earlier today. But currently she's a category 2, with maximum sustain winds of 110 miles an hour,  a minimum central pressure Of 943 mb , tracking north at 13 mph. She will likely briefly re intensify a bit sometimes later today. Not much has changed since I posted yesterday. She is still going to pass between Bermuda and the East Coast. Then she's gonna turn north and east. Staying well off the East Coast. But due to her increased size she will brush parts of the Coast with tropical storm conditions.

Impact

She is going to brush the Outer Banks with tropical storm force winds, as well as a storm surge of 2-5 feet along with wave heights of 12-15 feet, some could be upwards of 20 feet.

Maryland Delaware and Chesapeake bay Wave height of 10-15 feet, New Jersey and up into long island 6-10 foot wave height. Along the south shore of southern New England and cape cod we can expect 4-8 foot wave heights, for Nantucket Wave heights of 8 to as much as 13' will be possible, and then Along the east coast of Massachusetts up into the sea coast of New Hampshire  wave heights of 2-5 feet. For the coast of Maine It's looking like wave heights of 4-8 feet and maybe even 10 feet in spots. As far as winds go the worst will be right along the coast where tropical conditions are possible with wind gust of 30 mph to perhaps as much as 40 mph. Nantucket will likely see wind gust of 35-50 miles an hour. For the Mid Atlantic and long island as well as the south shore of New England. The worst conditions will be Thursday into Friday. Then for Maine the worst conditions will be Friday and Saturday. For the Avalon peninsula and Saint John's Friday and Saturday will feature wind gust of 30-45 Km an hour, wave height of 2.5 meters to 3.5 meters. Along with this, parts of the Mid Atlantic, New England and Canadian Coast could see light to moderate coastal flooding and some beach erosion.

Rip currents are going to be a big issue. There have already been hundreds of water rescues due to the high surf and rip currents over the last few days. So don't be a statistic stay out of the water.

The cold front is going to push Erin out of here later Friday into Saturday. High pressure will build in for Friday into Saturday Providing a mainly dry day but it still will remain a little cool. Later Saturday The high pressure will start to push off the coast. This will change the flow enough to allow temperatures to start to climb. Then Saturday night into Sunday we will see a cold front dropping through the region bringing back the chance for rain showers and some thunderstorms. Monday will see the cold front pushing away But For Monday Tuesday and Wednesday we will be dealing with a series of troughs that will be moving through keeping the weather a bit unsettled with a chance for scattered rain showers and Isolated thunderstorms, much of next week will be cool.

08/19/2025

 Those who like cool weather should be very happy!

The surface chart shows high pressure to our north and the stalled frontal boundary to our south and east.

Today it is coolish with very low humidity giving a real fall like feel  to the air. Radar shows isolated showers over the region, with widespread rain showers in Canada and over the Great Lakes. All that rain is associated with a system approaching the Great Lakes with an attached warm front and a strong cold front.

As the approaching system gets closer, western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania will have a better  chance for isolated showers later this afternoon. Western New York State and western Pennsylvania We'll see the rain showers become more widespread and scattered With isolated thunderstorms this evening into tonight. The scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will move south and east across the rest of New York State  and Pennsylvania later tonight into Wednesday morning. The rain will be working Western New England during the overnight and then into eastern New England and Middle Atlantic tomorrow morning.

As the colder dryer air associated with the cold front Interact with that warmer moisture air streaming north ahead of Erin. Parts of southern new England back down into the northern middle Atlantic could see heavier rain develop tomorrow.

Erin

Image credit Tomer Burg

Currently  Erin is a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, minimum central pressure of 961mb, tracking  northwest at around 9 mph. 

That cold front approaching from the west Is going to create a barrier that will keep Erin's center well away from the east coast, large swells, high surf and dangerous rip current along the East Coast, hitting the outer banks of the Carolinas. For Thursday and Friday wind gust of 20-35+ mph  will be possible closer to the coast and along the coast of the Middle Atlantic and into southern New England. Nantucket Could see wind gust of around 50 mph. Long Island, The south shore of new England Long island And up through the coast to Maine will likely see waves of 4-8 feet. 

Image credit WeatherBell

Those along the Middle Atlantic Coast will be subject to at least some tropical downpours. It is unclear if her outer rain bands will make it into southern New England, So we just have to see how she tracks. The large swells and surge could create light to moderate coastal flooding and some erosion, especially for those south facing inlets and beaches.

On Friday as Erin is starting to pull away from New England high pressure will be building in. High pressure will be in control for Saturday providing mostly dry Conditions with temperatures and humidity creeping up a little bit. Then for Saturday night and Sunday a cold front will be moving through the region bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday. For Tuesday we will have high pressure approaching. But we will likely still be dealing with a couple of troughs that could cause some isolated showers. The 1st half of next week is looking to stay relatively cool.

In the Atlantic 98L is at a 60% chance for tropical development and newly designated 99L is at a 30% chance of development.

08/18/2025

 

Welcome to Monday

The surface chart shows the stationary front setting up off the Coast of New England extending down across southern New Jersey into Pennsylvania. The high pressure sitting up to the north Is allowing the flow to bring in much cooler temperatures and less humid. conditions than we had over the weekend. 

Satellite is showing a lot of clouds over southern New England down across southeast New York State, across Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic, With just a few clouds north and west of there. Radar shows not much going on across the region; but there are a few isolated rain showers over parts of the northern Middle Atlantic closer to that frontal boundary. Tomorrow into Wednesday will be a rinse and repeat with cool conditions and a chance for some isolated rain showers. Humidity will be climbing a bit for midweek. A weak disturbance will be moving along that stalled out frontal boundary bringing a slightly better chance for isolated rain showers on Wednesday.

On Thursday Erin will be passing well  south and east of New Jersey, long island and the Cape. Southern New England into the northern Middle Atlantic should generally see wind speeds of 20 to perhaps 30 miles an hour. We will have to see if any tropical storm winds make it to the Coast. There is a chance some of her outer rain bands could make an attempt to at least approach the Coast.

Friday we'll see high pressure build back in as Erin pulls away. Both Friday and Saturday We'll have a chance for some isolated rain showers across the region. Then on Saturday night and Sunday a  cold front with a prefrontal trough will approach and move through bringing more in the way of widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical Atlantic

Erin

The National Hurricane Center 11 am update shows  her with max sustained winds of 140 mph, central pressure of 935 mb, moving northwest at 10 mph. She has gone through a few eye wall replacement cycles and as a result is much larger than she was, Hurricane force winds extend around 80 miles from her center, with tropical storm force winds extending 230 miles from her center. She is going to continue to grow in size as she tracks north (which is normal) and then once she becomes extra tropical she will become even bigger. These growth spurts not only extend her wind-field but also expand her wave action.

Image credit Tropical tidbits

Currently She is bringing the Turks, Caicos and southeast Bahamas tropical storm conditions  and heavy rain.

Image credit Tomer Burg.

Image credit Tropical tidbits Tropical Tidbits

She still looks to track between Bermuda and the Outer Banks. Currently she is a category 4 hurricane once again.  There is a chance we could see some more intensification. But likely not up to category 5. As she moves into an area of higher wind Sheer she should start to slowly weaken and will likely become a category 3 through at lease Wednesday.

 As I said, She is a much larger system than she was a couple of days ago, So For Wednesday and Thursday Tropical Storm force winds and some of her outer rain bands could make an impact on the Outer Banks. Hatteras island is already being evacuated.  Due to the big swell and wave conditions moderate to high beach erosion is quite possible.

 Elsewhere along the East Coast there is a chance that tropical storm force winds  make it into parts of the coast, but that isn't a sure thing.  we'll see some coastal flooding and those inlets could have some light to perhaps moderate beach erosion due to some storm surge.

For the East Coast her biggest impact is going to be large ocean swells, high surf and dangerous rip current. So even though it might not be the wisest decision, take care if you get into the water.

Image credit NHC

The worst of Erin's conditions should be west of Bermuda.  But tropical storm conditions are possible. 

Friday and Saturday She looks to brush Newfoundland and the Avalon peninsula, The worst of her Impact should be south and east of Saint John's. But any wobbles could bring tropical storm conditions onto the peninsula.

Invest 98L

On satellite 98L is fairly disorganized so we will have to keep an eye on it over the next day or so to see if it can get its act together .

The NHC has the 7 day development odds at 50%.

98L  likely should track  south of Erin's track.  This will give it a much better chance of making it into the Caribbean. This should be getting close to the leeward islands by the end of the week.

Image credit NHC

A few weeks ago I said as we got around August 15th  we would see the Atlantic wake back up and we would see a lot of activity start up in the Atlantic basin. And that has definitely been the case. We are now at that point in the season where we will quickly build towards peak, we're also definitely in Capo Verde season, Where we see tropical waves move off of Africa then  work there way from the eastern Atlantic into the western Atlantic, becoming name storms.

08/17/2025

Overlook on the week ahead  and Erin.

The surface chart and radar shows the cold front approaching and the  line of isolated thunderstorms and scattered rain showers moving across New York State and Pennsylvania. The chart also shows the system out west that will be bringing us widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for midweek.

The weekend has been warm and quite humid. As the cold front continues to drop south and east this afternoon into tonight, It will be losing some of its punch and generally falling apart; the scattered showers and thunderstorms will move ahead of it across the region. Thunderstorms will be non severe; but they will be capable of dropping moderate to heavy rainfall at times. The cold front isn't going to be moving all that fast And as it moves into Southeast New England, Southeast Pennsylvania into the I-95 Corridor say 8-9 pm, rain should become much more spotty as we lose the sun.

Behind the front cooler and less humid conditions will move into the region as dryer air sets up overhead. These conditions hang around for Monday into Tuesday. Then we will see  a trough with a cold front move in during Tuesday into Wednesday. This cold front will stall and then we will see a weak short wave disturbance move a long it. This will produce widespread but scattered rain showers, and non severe thunderstorms. 

High pressure will be building in for the second half of the week, keeping things quiet with comfortable temperatures with only a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Then over the weekend a cold front will approach and come through reintroducing the chance for scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms.

Erin

Yesterday She was a category 5 hurricane with 160 mph. But as is typical of very strong powerful hurricanes they have a hard time maintaining that power.

Image credit Tropical Tidbits

Currently, the national hurricane center has her with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph with a minimum central pressure of 946 mb, tracking west northwest at 13 mph. The weakening is the result of her currently undergoing a eye wall replacement cycle. As the cycle continues and the new eye wall takes over she should start to re-strength later today. She is also going to become much larger as a result of the EWR.

Image credit Tomer Burg

She is poised to start making a turn more to the north; as she navigates her way through that weakness between high pressure over the US and that strong Bermuda high sub tropical ridge over the Atlantic. 

She will pass close to the Turks and Caicos, Bringing Tropical Storm force wind gust. She looks to pass north and east Of the Bahamas. Then she should be tracking north by the time she approaches the latitude of the border between South Carolina and North Carolina, tracking between the East Coast and Bermuda, her center will stay well east of  the East Coast. But with her increasing size, her outer rain bands could reach parts of the East Coast. She also could bring enough surge that would bring light flooding to some of the inlets along the coast. She likely will  bring a breezy wind to the Outer Banks, Long Island, Cape Cod and places like Nantucket. Her most severe impact along the East Coast will be in the form of large swells and dangerous rip currents. The East Coast will really start to feel the larger swells and stronger rip currents by Wednesday.

As the trough sets up in the Northeast into Southeast Canada she will sharply recurve north and east, away from New England. As she's heading out she should stay south and east of Nova Scotia but she could pass close to Newfoundland, Avalon Peninsula and Saint John's, bringing  the danger of some coastal flooding and rain. Those in Bermuda will be on the east side of Erin so they could experience conditions that are a bit worse and those are to the west of her track.

In my opinion Erin has signaled her intentions very well and I've been happy with the forecast I've been talking out for the last week. My forecast has been very consistent. But we must remember most hurricanes aren't so kind about telegraphing their intentions so well.

Very quick post on Erin

At the 8:00 am update, Erin has maximum sustained winds  of 145 mph,  minimum central pressure of 935MB and is moving west northwest at 20 miles an hour.  

It is possible  she could reach category 5 at some point, today or tomorrow. Category 5 hurricanes have a maximum sustained wind speed of 157 mph or higher.

Image credit Tomer Burg

As was feared She did indeed undergo rapid intensification. Yesterday at this time she had winds of 70 mph, She has now doubled her maximum wind speed to 145 miles an hour at 8 am this morning, making her a strong category 4 hurricane. 

Here is a look at infrared satellite showing Erin is looking healthy with a very well defined.  Her outer rain bands beginning to impact the islands in the northwest Caribbean.

Erin 's windfield, has hurricane force winds extending 30 miles from her center with tropical storm force winds Extending out 125 miles from her center. Over course of the next few days She will likely be going through eye wall replacement cycles. So she will likely at least double her overall size during that time. These eyeball replacement cycles Are a normal feature in  intense hurricanes. The eye wall of a hurricane Contains The most heavy rainfall and highest wind speed. Has this ring of the highest winds Intensifies and reaches its maximum limit. We often see an outer eye wall start to begin Which cuts off the inner eye wall allowing it to dissipate. Often we will see some brief weakening in the hurricane during this process. The new eyeball will take over. Many times this process will  increase the hurricanes overall size.

Her overall forecast remains generally the same

She has wobbled a little bit to the south and west. These kind of wobbles are normal. She is moving through that weakness between the strengthening and growing subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and that strong area of high pressure over the United States.  It still looks like she is going to pass between the US East Coast and Bermuda. 

As the trough builds into Southwest Canada and the Northeast. She will start to recurve out to sea. While it's extremely likely She is going to stay well off the East Coast of the US and stay away from Atlantic Canada. As well as staying west of Bermuda. This will keep her worst impacts out over the Atlantic. But, She will bring dangerous surf and rip tides to the East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada and Bermuda.

08/15/2025

 

Well we made it to Friday

I received several responses to the question I asked yesterday. About how in depth y'all want these forecast outlooks to be? So far all the responses have favored keeping things as they are and diving into a bit of detail with these forecast. I do think a little meteorological knowledge is a good thing for the general public. When I was storm chasing I saw the result of people making foolish decisions Because they just didn't understand What they were being told. So for that reason, I started the facebook weather pages and this blog, to try to instill a little education into the subject, Thereby keeping all y'all a little bit safer.

Anyway on to today's forecast.

The surface chart and radar show high pressure building  with not a lot going on across Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. But surface chart tell show troughling developing over central Canada,  that will have implications next week on Erin.

Today the overall temperatures and humidity are fairly seasonal and comfortable. With only a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers or rouge thunderstorms. These same general conditions should continue for Saturday as well. Late Saturday as that system to our west gets closer a cold front will be approaching. Ahead of this temperatures and humidity will start to increase over New York State and Pennsylvania. The cold front and a prefrontal trough will move into New York State and northwest Pennsylvania Sunday morning, bringing a chance for scattered isolated  rain showers and non severe thunderstorms. This looks to reach central New York State, western into central Pennsylvania around midday.  The areas ahead of the front will continue to be warm and somewhat humid. Then the cold front will be moving into Northern New England eastern New York state and eastern Pennsylvania during the afternoon into the evening. Then into eastern New England Add northern Middle Atlantic Sunday night into Monday morning. Behind the  cold front temperatures for the 1st half of next week are going to be generally below average with low humidity.

Tropics

Image credit National Hurricane center

Invest 98L

There is still a crack in the window that could allow 98L to become a tropical depression But regardless Of this, 98L will be moving ashore and is moving inland over northeast Mexico and Southeast Texas, in the next 12-18 hours. Bring a lot of heavy rain to Northwest Mexico and Southeast Texas. This will lead to the possibility of flash flooding.

Erin

Erin Struggled during the overnight. But she has gotten her act together and became a hurricane this morning, making her the 1st hurricane of the Atlantic 2025 season. Currently the National Hurricane Center has her with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, minimum central pressure of 996mb. She has started that anticipated turn northward, currently she is moving west- northwest at 18 mph.

Image credit Tomer Burg

This should keep her away from the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. But she will get close enough for some impact. So Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Leeward Islands.  She also looks to stay several hundred miles east of the Bahamas and Florida.

Image credit Tropical tidbits

On satellite She has robust heavy convection around her center, as upper level outflow continues to improve. The hurricane hunter reconnaissance is also reporting a closed eye wall. She is currently moving over  Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) that are around 82°F But she will be moving into waters that are generally 84-86°F. Wind shear is lessening and should become fairly light during the weekend into early next week. She is also vertically stacked which means her low level center and upper level center are on top of each other, Along with of her having good outflow, all these conditions mean she is poised for quite a bit of intensification and strengthening moving forward. 

Over the weekend she will continue to  strengthen, and will likely become a major hurricane by Sunday, as I've been saying possibly even a category 4. There is still a chance that she could go through a phase of rapid intensification, which is defined by an increase in wind speed of 35 mph over a 24 hour period.

Image credit Alex Boreham/CyclonicWx

She still looks to start more of a northward turn east of the Turks and Caico's, staying a few hundred miles from the Bahamas and Florida. She should continue to slowly make that turn northward, as she moves around that strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge, before turning more sharply north and east by mid next week, due to the location and orientation of the trough that will be over Southeast Canada into the Northeast. I'm still expecting her to stay away from the East Coast, Passing between the Coast and Bermuda. Those from the Carolinas up into New England as well as Atlantic Canada,  and especially Bermuda should still closely monitor Erin's progress.

Image credit Weathermodels website

Despite staying well east of the East Coast. She will still bring a lot of heavy swell and high waves along with dangerous rip currents all along the East Coast.

08/14/2025

 The heat and humidity is on it's way out But for how long.

The surface chart shows the cold front moving across the region. Radar shows not a lot going on across the region. This is due to the fact that that yesterday 's prefrontal trough zapped the atmosphere and took a lot of the energy with it. Today will feature a chance for isolated Rain showers and perhaps a few rogue thunderstorms here and there As the cold front glides through. Behind the front temperatures are cooler and less humid. Ahead of the front there is still some heat and higher humidity. But drier air is going to slowly work in today as the cold front continues to slowly push east. The main problem with the thunderstorms that pop up this afternoon and evening will be the chance for locally heavy rains.

Tonight and tomorrow, the cold front will either wash out or push to our east and out of the region. Taking the heat and humidity with it. Tomorrow high pressure will be approaching;  we will have a few weak troughs sitting over the region, these could kick off a few isolated showers or perhaps a rogue thunderstorm But the vast majority of us should stay dry. Saturday will see the high pressure Move in overhead This will be sitting Closer to northern new England and southeast Canada. So it will create a flow that will allow some of that heat and humidity to try to come back into the region. But, Saturday overall will just be a rinse and repeat of Friday with a chance for a few isolated showers or perhaps a rouge thundershower. 

On Sunday a cold front will be approaching out of Canada and the Great Lakes. This will bring the chance for widespread scattered rain showers and scattered thunderstorms, across northern New York State down through into Northwest Pennsylvania. The cold front will continue to drop south and east during the day into Monday morning, with the scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms moving with it. Temperatures will be cooler For at least the 1st half of next week. Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday we will see a stalled frontal boundary waffling around overhead, This will bring the chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.

Erin and Invest 98L

I-98L Is at a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression.  There is an extremely small window for this to become a depression before moving inland over Mexico.

.Erin Is looking much more vibrant and is getting stronger.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has her maximum substained winds at 50 mph, a central pressure of 999MB, moving west at 17 mph.

Image credit Timer Burg and NHC

As I said she is looking stronger; on satellite we can see deep convection (thunderstorms) consolidating around her center. 

She is going to brush the islands in the northwest Caribbean She could bring tropical forest winds Into places like Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands.

She has been trending a little further west for the last few days. This has been especially true on the Euro model. 

Image credit Brian Tang

I touched on all of this yesterday When I said that as long as she stays weaker She will have a tendency to come further west. She has been dealing with those cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic as well as some dry air. But now that she's pulling into the central Atlantic SSTS are going to be much warmer. As she strengthens she is going to feel that pull northward, As she exploits that weakening between the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and the high pressure that will be sitting over the central US. So as she strengthens she is going to feel that pull to the north and she will start to shift her track north and west. 

So she will become a hurricane soon and then likely become a major hurricane. A strong category 3 or maybe a category 4 hurricane are definitely in the cards. She has been behaving like I've been discussing over the last several days and I still expect her To stay away from the East Coast of the United States. But the question right now is just how close will she come to the coast. In previous post I have discussed the influences that are going to affect her track; these are still going to be the case. We have that strengthening high that's going to be sitting over the Southern Plains and the subtropical ridge sitting in the Atlantic to her east, is going to allow her to start to move north and east. Then depending on the exact location and timing of troughing that will be sitting up over southeast Canada, She will be tugged north and then deflected north and east. 

Image credit Timer Burg

I've had a few discussions with people on the models flipping back and forth on Aaron's track. This model behavior is very normal. Yesterday the euro was much further west than the GFS Today the models have flipped with the euro to the east and the GFS to the west But still the vast majority of the models are showing her staying off the East Coast and eventually recurving back out into the North Atlantic. So I don't expect any direct impacts on the East Coast of the US. But those from Carolinas up through New England and even Atlantic Canada are still going to want to keep an eye on this, just in case she does end up wobbling further west.  This westward trend in the models could be good news for Bermuda if she passes between Bermuda and the East Coast.  It is a given that she is going to bring very rough surf and strong rip currents along the East Coast.

Some of y'all are complaining that my post are just too detailed and long. I think it's better to try to explain why things are happening and show this to all y'all. But if you don't want me to do this, I will just post what is currently happening and leave the details and science out of it. Let me know what you want.

Erin and a look at the long range

 National Hurricane Center's Cone of Uncertainty.

The National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Erin with maximum substained winds of 45 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb, moving west at 17 mph.. Erin has been struggling the last couple days due to a bit of dry air with Saharan dust and moving over Sea surface temperatures (SST) of 78-80 °F. Later today and tomorrow She will be moving into warmer waters. She has also been flying west, but  she is now starting to slow her forward motion. Both of these things should allow her to strengthen, possibly with rapid development.

Image credit Tomer Burg

She is moving around that subtropical ridge. So she should start to make a turn more to the north Over the next couple of days, As she tries to exploit a weakness between the high pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure to the west, that will be retrograding west. The timing of all this will be another key to her track.

Right now, Erin looks to track just north of the Leeward islands. She will likely be a hurricane by Friday. Then  as she tracks north of the northeast Caribbean islands she should be a strengthening hurricane as she starts to pull north and west.

Image credit Tropical Tidbits

She could be a strong category 3 hurricane by the time she is moving north.  But how far west she gets and how close she gets to the US Coast will depend partly on the orientation and strength of that ridge over the northern US and also her overall strength. The weaker she is the greater her chance  to come further west.  

Images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits and Tomer Burg

Right now she is looking like she will stay well east of the US east coast before heading north and east and out to sea, This will be due to a trough that will  be sitting over southeast Canada.  So even though Erin looks to stay east of the US mainland; those along the East Coast and in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on how she's faring and tracking. Those in Bermuda should also be keeping a very close eye on Erin.

A little on the long range

The climate prediction centers CPC 8-14 day outlook is favoring cooler than average temperatures over the Northeast into the Great Lakes and northern Middle Atlantic.

The CPC is also showing over the next 8-14 days Our region should be seeing average to below average precipitation.

Why this should occur

Looking at the upper level pattern over Alaska and into northwest Canada. We can see troughing building in out of the arctic into Alaska and Canada. 

 

Image credit Tropical Tidbits.

This is going to promote general troughing Great Lakes, Northeast,  into the northern Middle Atlantic. Over the last few weeks, I have been posting quite a bit of how we look to be trending as we head towards winter 2025-2026. Currently the a jet stream is to our north But over the next few weeks we are going to see the jet stream push south. Which will allow that colder air working into northwest Canada and Alaska to come down the trough axis and head into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic region. This doesn't mean that this is the end of the hot weather, as we should see more variability in the strengthening northern polar jet as we move closer to winter, so we can expect bouts of heat and cool as we move forward.