The last few days have surely felt like Fall.
Image credit Tropical tidbits
We have troughing up over Alaska into British Columbia. This is going allow colder air to move over into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Then this will slide down that trough axis into the Midwest and East Coast.
Next week is looking to be overall cool. The climate prediction centers 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook does support the idea of general coolness across the region.
We're in the process of a very impressive pattern flip.
The Bermuda high is very close to the Azores. This is going to have a big impact On the steering flow pattern over the western Atlantic into the Gulf of America and over the central and eastern United States.
Image credit tropical tidbits
This along with a strong pacific jet, is going to help pump cooler and dryer air into the central United States, Great Lakes and Northeast into northern Middle Atlantic. So over at least the next couple of weeks; we're going to see persistent troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic region. This will likely keep overall temperatures below average over the next 7 to 14 days. This idea is reflected in the images I showed above from the Climate Protection Center.
The Euro EPS two meter temperature anomaly chart shows that by the time we get to the end of August heading into September just about everywhere east of the Mississippi is seeing cooler temperatures.
Image credit tropical tidbits
As I said above The air is going to be coming out of Canada is going to be dry overall
Image credit tropical tidbit
Over the next week or two we are going to have rain chances. But, I do think the rain showers and thunderstorms are going to be scattered in nature Rather than widespread over the region. So some areas will do well other areas not so much. The CPC is more generous with precipitation Then either the euro ENS or the American GFS, who are showing overall below average rainfall.
What can we expect for October and September.
Current global sea surface temperatures (SST)
September through October analogue years.
These years are the closest matches to what were seeing currently in the global SST anomaly
1999, 2006, 2012, 2020, 2022
Image credit NOAA physical sciences laboratory.
Based on analogues and current data, temperatures for the western half of New York State most of Pennsylvania Into the northern middle Atlantic looks to be slightly below to below average for September and October. Eastern New York State and most of New England Looks to be around average with Maine looking to be slightly above to above average.
This doesn't mean we won't have not days, but the heat lasting several days in a row, should be over.
As far as precipitation, I don't think we're going to be as dry as we have been over the last 30-45 days. Most of the region looks to see Slightly above average For the month of September and October.
The 2025-2026 winter:
El Nino Southern Oscillation
The ENSO is still considered neutral, meaning neither El Nino or La Nina is present. But the climate prediction center has officially issued a La Nina watch.
As I've been saying in these winter updates over the last few months. The ENSO does look to be trending towards a weak la Nina. If this does occur It could help bring in a cool to colder and snowier winter in the Midwest into the Northeast.
Current snow pack and sea ice extent.
As I said a couple of weeks ago, Compared to this time last year, the sea ice extent is a little further south and pushed up along the northern coast of Alaska. The ice is still going through it's yearly melt. Based on long-term average, We're still a month or so from the minimum yearly ice extent due to melting. Currently the arctic sea ice is melting at a slower rate than it was at this time last year.
While having more sea ice in the bering strait means there's a greater chance for cold air intrusions to work away from Siberia Into North America. But, it also can cause the polar Jet to become stronger. Thereby having a greater chance to lock up the cold air around and closer to the North Pole. So it's a two edged sword.
We also have those well above average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Pacific.
Those very warm SSTs will interact with a colder air to the north, Will help create a strong pacific jet helping to create a strong pacific jet that will direct systems into the northwest and Canada. This could also help lock up some of that cold air to our north.t
But based on the fact that it's looking like we're heading for a weak La Nina And some of the other data I went over in my previous winter outlook discussions.
Based on the current data on hand at this time The upcoming winter here in the Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic Is looking to have overall temperatures to be slightly below average to below average. As far as snowfall that too is looking to be generally slightly above average to above average. As we get closer we will see if this idea changes as more data becomes available.
You do know how I Love when you use the word Snow and then use the words above average with it.Then Cold and Below Average.I'm going to pretend I did not read about the Polar Jet but can’t the Polar Jet dig South into the U.S.or would it be zonal due too the the other pieces of Data you have.( Warm SST in the Northern Pacific,and where the sea ice is) Why can Sea Ice control how the jet reacts.
ReplyDeleteTypically during a La Nina the polar jet tends to dip south Into the Midwest and Northeast. A weak la Nina Increases the odds for high pressure sitting in north pacific And low pressure sitting over Alaska And southeast Canada Our chances for seeing some cold air outbreaks. La Nina is also A greater likelihood for Sudden Stratopheric Warming event That can lead to Shifts in the polar vortex. Possibly increasing our odds for some cold air. But we have the cold air to the north and is extremely warm SST in the North Pacific. This temperature gradient could make for a strong pacific jet That could shoot over the ridge over western Canada And possibly help lock up some of that cold air with a stronger polar vortex. There is also a chance The cold air out of Siberia and over Alaska and bring it down into the northern United States. So it's really too early to know for sure how things are turn out. But the pattern is hinting At a greater chance for colder and snowier conditions here in the Northeast.
ReplyDeleteWhere you wrote And Low pressure sitting over Alaska and Southeast Canada Our chances for seeing some Cold air outbreaks.It seems that a word is missing either between Canada and Our or between Outbreaks and La NiƱa.
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