A Severe Sunday!

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for severe storms, across Western New England, New York State, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms over Eastern New England.

 

The surface chart shows the location of the slow-moving strong cold front getting ready to move across the region this afternoon through tonight. Ahead of and along the front rain showers and thunderstorms will move through region for northwest to southeast.

Unlike Friday, the wind profile is going to be more supportive for the development of severe thunderstorms, including the possibility for a few discreet supercell thunderstorms.

The biggest threats will be locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. There will also be the risk for hail, frequent lightning and even the risk for an isolated tornado or two.

The greatest chance for severe weather across the region will be between 2 PM and 11 PM today. General rainfall will be half of an inch to an inch. But those who get under severe thunderstorms could see rainfall of 2 to 3 inches, which could lead to Isolated to scattered localized flash flooding due to torrential downpours.   The timing of the front looks to be enough that the severe threat southern New England will be less, rain and thunderstorms will move through between 9 PM and 4 AM. There is a chance some of these could be severe with gusty winds and the possibility for heavy downpours.  

Here’s a look at the SPC’s excessive rainfall outlook. 

The map shows northern New York state, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and a large part of Maine under a 10-20% chance of flash flooding. With the rest of Maine, western New England, New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey at a 5-10% chance of flash flooding.

Behind the cold front cooler and lower humidity will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday will see temperatures start to climb, but it will still be comfortable. The chance for higher temperatures will increase for Wednesday into Friday, along with rain showers and thunderstorms, late Wednesday and Thursday could see more severe weather.

Stay weather aware today and have a way to be warned if severe weather approaches your area.