Thursday, June 11, 2026

Something tropical in the Atlantic Basin to talk about

 

Tropical Write UP

Energy that crossed over Mexico from Cristina is interacting with a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula.  This is going to move over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days.  

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Bay of Campeche are 83° F -84° F which is warm enough for tropical development.

Image curtesy of the National Climatic Data Center




Images curtesy of the NHC

But other parameters like moderate to high wind shear and dry air make for fairly unfavorable development conditions



Images curtesy of the University of Wisconsin

So, any development will be quite slow. The National Hurricane Center has given the system a 10% chance of forming within the next seven days. as it moves onshore the coast of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. So, any window this has to become a named system is going to be very small and quite short.  But if it becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name “Arthur”.  Regardless of this becoming a tropical storm, it will likely be a gusty wind and rain maker which would lead to localized flooding as it moves ashore in Mexico. 



1 comment:

  1. Wow,been Hot for two days and the dew point snuck up to 70 by 9:00 last night,We were miserable.Today was 94 same as yesterday but the D.P.is at 64 and the New A/C is cranking,so let that Dew Point creep up again but I don’t think it will.YThe last drought map showed my area in White.Today we went for a ride,the kind where we try and get lost.We went by a major river and it was the lowest it has ever been.We drove up too the Dam and the water level was 20 feet or more below normal.This dam holds water back for the hydro electricity it makes.They aren’t making much (any) now or in the foreseeable future.We drove to the Western Tributary,completely Dry.The Southern Tributary,completely Dry.These Mountains are in the Southern Part of the Green Mountains.I never have seen the two tributaries dry before.The Southern Greens received a lot of snow this past winter so the brooks coming out of that area should not be dry.

    ReplyDelete

Thank you for taking the time to comment, I will answer as soon as I can.