A Tropical Disturbance And Severe Later This Week!

 A quick look at Wednesday and Thursday.

Cloud cover will thicken overnight ahead of a weakening frontal system approaching the region. This will move through the region Tonight and Wednesday. Rain Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late tonight through the overnight for western New York State and western Pennsylvania. The frontal boundary will move through on Wednesday, kicking off the chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. There could be an isolated downpour, but everything will be hit and miss, and many might not see anything. For the most part any thunderstorms should be non-severe, but far western Pennsylvania could end up with a few thunderstorms on the strong side.

Thursday will see heat and humidity return as we deal with a strong southerly flow keeping things quite breezy.  Then a strong area of low pressure and a cold front will approach and move through making showers and storms likely. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. The greatest danger from these storms will be strong damaging winds and heavy downpours.

Friday as the cold front settles into our south conditions will slowly dry out and we will cool off and turn less humid once again, there will be west-northwest breeze lingering for Friday and Saturday.

 Tropical Write UP

The disturbance I’ve been following (Invest 90L) is now Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (called this because it doesn’t have a well-defined center) Its apparent center is currently located over southern Texas, drifting eastward toward the Gulf.  There is potential for this to become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm as it tracks over the northwest Gulf. So this has a short window to become Tropical Storm Arthur.

Sea-surface temperatures in that part of the Gulf are around 29°C (84°F). with moderately favorable atmospheric conditions. All of this could support the development of a brief tropical system.

A look at the surge forecast.

Storm Surge possibilities from PTC #1, Surge of up to 4 feet is possible

Where will PTC 1 track?

It looks to track just off the central and southeastern Texas coastline later today before tracking more to the north northeast toward the Golden Triangle of Texas or southwest Louisiana

Regardless of this becoming a weak tropical storm, the primary impact is going to be tropical rainfall with amounts of six inches to eight inches, with locally higher amounts possible across Southeast Texas through Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.