The furnace is about to kick on!

 

After today it will get uncomfortable for most.  I’ve been talking about this upcoming heat for several day, so it shouldn’t be a big surprise.

 This will be a short post, as there is really nothing new to talk about

We have high pressure in control overhead providing a lot of sun and dry conditions. Temperatures are going to be warm, but humidity will stay under control.

We have a warm front approaching the region, this will roll into the region tonight into tomorrow. As that strong upper-level ridge continues to build its way east, along with very warm to hot temperatures and high humidity with dewpoints in the Mid 60s to upper 70s.   By Wednesday the entire region is going to be under the influence of the heat dome.

Surface chart, Satellite and Radar

 

Tuesday and Wednesday the storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather, over parts of our region, the risk will include damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and even a tornado is possible on both days. Starting Tuesday, the region can expect a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will be isolated to scattered, and not everyone will see them, but they could pop up anywhere. As I said yesterday don’t expect any real heat relief from these storms.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

What about these complexes of storms.

Image curtesy of Earth Nullschool

We have a strong high over the north Pacific and a strong Bermuda High in the Atlantic, both of these are controlling the trough ridge pattern over North America. Looking at the 500 mb pattern over North America, we can see that deep trough over the western US and the steep ridge over the eastern Plains into the Midwest, due to the strong area of high pressure sitting over the Tennessee Valley. The jet is wavy with several shortwaves moving along it.  

 

Images courtesy of AG Weather 

These shortwaves are going to become ridge running storm complexes as they run along the edge of the heat dome. Weakening complexes are likely going to start Tuesday as they slide into New York State and New England out of Canada and the Great Lakes.  Wednesday and Thursday will have a similar setup for these complexes. 

 As we get into the 4^th of July Weekend, the heat ridge is going to start slowly retrograding back to the west. As this happens the risk for storm complexes will increase over the Northeast. Those in Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic Region will also see their risk increase.

While the Upper Midwest will have the greatest risk for powerful Mesoscale Convective Systems; the Northeast and Middle Atlantic will also have a chance to see these move through parts of the region.

Have a great day!