Yesterday was beautiful but the rain is back.

 

Surface chart and Radar

 

 

Today

High pressure is slowly exiting the region as we have a weakening frontal system approaching the region. Temperatures will be around seasonal today, with humidity not feeling too bad. On the surface chart and radar, we can see the leading warm front lifting into the region, scattered showers and some thunderstorms will accompany the front This looks to reach eastern New York State Mid to late afternoon.  Then into western New England, eastern Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic this evening.  At first this will start as isolated showers west to east, then it will become widespread ahead of the cold front.

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Severe weather over western into central Pennsylvania and New York State. The main risk will include damaging winds, heavy downpours, and hail. The tornado risk is low but can't be ruled out.

Friday

This is going to continue into New England during the overnight into Friday. Keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms mainly across eastern New York State and New England.  But across eastern Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic showers could linger into Friday morning.

 

The SPC has part of eastern New York State and central into southern New England at Marginal Risk for severe weather. The main risk will include damaging winds, heavy downpours, and hail. The risk for a tornado is very low.

That area of low pressure up over the Great Lakes is going to move east over New England. This is going to lead to the cold front stalling out.  As high pressure builds into the region.  The high pressure will help block the rain and storms to the southern part of the region. for Friday night.  

 

The Weekend

 

 

Along that frontal boundary we’re going to have an area of low pressure moving across it. This should keep most of the rain and storms associated with it down over Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, around New York City into Long Island and the Cape.  If high pressure sets up a little farther north the rain could move north a bit.  would budge just a tiny bit, it may increase the rain chances down the Cape on Saturday. Most of the rest of the region should be mainly dry. But far northern New York State northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and Maine, will be dealing with a few weak disturbances keeping the threat for a few showers and thunderstorms in the picture for Saturday and Sunday. Those away from that southern boundary won’t see it rain all the time, and not everyone will see these showers. So those graduation parties should stay aware for an isolated chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm. The best chance for more in the way of widespread rain will be across Pennsylvania, New Jersey and points south. The weekend will see temperatures slowly getting warmer each day.

 

Next Week

High pressure sets up for Monday bringing mostly dry weather and scattered clouds. The warming trend will continue is that high pressure ridge sets up over the Midwest. On Tuesday the high pressure will start to shift east, this will allow for a southwest flow, directing heat and humidity in from the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. The heat and humidity will be in force for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. with highs near 90 and higher humidity to go along with it, isolated shower and storm chances will be around for both days. On Thursday the warm front will be pushing north, how far that warm front gets will determine temperatures across the region, heat and humidity will be oppressive south and west of the front, while those north and east of the front will be cooler.

Have a great day. And remember to share this group with your friends!