The week start out cool, but the heat might come back!

 Surface chart and radar.

 

 

Week overview

That high pressure ridge is going to build a little farther west and hang over the Southwest for much of this week, then as we get into the end of the week, this is going to start shifting eastward. Over the weekend and especially next week, a deep trough will develop out west, while ridging over the East, allows a lot of heat into our region, this will be especially true for the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic Region.

Today

The cold front is slowly moving through New England. Behind the cold front temperatures are very cool, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below average. Dew Points are also going to be very comfortable. The front will continue to push east today. At the same time the upper-level low moving across Canada will bring the chance for a few rounds of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across northern New York State and northern into central New England, there is a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, this will be especially true across Maine. The thunderstorms that develop could produce strong winds and hail; the tornado risk is low. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk over far northern Maine.

With the Great Lakes remaining relatively warm, this northwest winds with cooler air, will likely bring lake-effect rain showers and storms downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening.  Rain and rumbles of thunder will continue into the overnight over northern parts of the region.

Over Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey scattered clouds and some isolated showers will be around for the afternoon and evening.

Rest of the week

Tomorrow will be a continuation of today, as that ULL continues meander.  

Wednesday high pressure will be building in and sit overhead, providing a lot of sunny sky. The vast majority of the region should stay dry, but temperatures and humidity will start to rise, as this troughing start to lift out. The dip in the Jet Stream will continue to push out of here on Thursday, during the second half of the week, a series of fronts will move across the region. Thursday and Friday will see much warmer temperatures and higher humidity.  All of this will bring back the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  As the cold front moves through for later Thursday into Friday, it could kick off some strong to severe storms.

Behind the cold front troughing will hang around keeping the risk for isolated showers and a few thunderstorms for later Friday through the Weekend.  The weekend won’t be a washout.

Tropics

 

Invest 95L, is located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. The NHC has giving 95L 50% odds to develop into a depression or storm, but the window for this to occur is very limited. Right now, I really don’t think this will develop into a tropical storm as the strong upper-level winds will likely rip it apart. If this does end up becoming a weak tropical storm, will be like Cristobal and die a few hours after it was born.  Right now, this looks to miss a landfall on Bermuda, but it will bring rain, 95L will move toward Atlantic Canada by Wednesday. Right now, it looks to bring heavy rainfall to eastern Newfoundland.

We have that tropical wave that just emerged into the eastern Atlantic. The NHC has 2-day odds at 20% and the 7-day development odds at 60%.  As this tracks west Over the next few days at 15-20 mph, it will be dealing with some windshear and dry air, So the atmospheric setup is only marginally favorable for slow development.  Due to the El Nino, the Atlantic has been plagued with fronts this season. These may weaken the Bermuda high and allow to shift west. If this happens it will delay this from curving northward.  But with the high-pressure ridge shifting east over the weekend, this could help the Bermuda high to break down and push back east. This could allow for a window, that would allow this to begin tracking north and east north of the Leeward Islands.  Conditions in the western Atlantic are more favorable for some development, so this could slowly develop into a tropical storm or even a hurricane down the road. Many of the Global models what to develop this into the first hurricane of the season. It too soon to know for sure what this is going to decide to do. Those in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, should pay close attention to this. While at the moment the Bahamas and East Coast are at a low risk, they should still keep an eye on this.  

 

 Have a great day!