Unsettled week ahead!

 Today

We have the backdoor cold front I talked about last week, dropping south and west out of New England, and is currently setting over New York State and Pennsylvania. the front will produce variable cloud cover with scattered showers.  Tonight the front will stall over the region with the continued threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for strong storms over western New York State

The winds will become southernly, this will allow for warmer and more humid conditions across the region.

Rest of the Week

 

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the dew points will continue to climb. This will increase the thunderstorm risk, for tomorrow thru Thursday. The temperatures and humidity will feel like Mid-August, in spite of it being meteorological fall.   

For Tuesday and Wednesday, we will be dealing with a semi-stationary frontal boundary. Both days will feature variable clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. Here’s a look at the SPC convective outlooks for both days. 

The primary threats will be strong damaging winds, large hail, along with the threat for heavy downpours, bringing a localized flooding risk.  There will also be a low-end tornado risk.  

 On Thursday scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a cold front clearing through Thursday. Some of these storms will be severe. The severe risk will extend into Friday for southwest Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. As a trough sets up over the region and pushes the storm track south. Again, the main risk will be damaging winds and hail.  The farther north you are (New York State and New England) the better your chance of seeing partly to mostly sunny skies. SPC day 4 and day 5. 

Behind the front we will see a drier and comfier pattern setup for the Labor Day holiday weekend. We will be dealing with some troughing for Saturday and Sunday, which could bring some isolated showers. But right now, both days are looking mostly dry and pleasant. High pressure looks to move in overhead for Sunday night and Labor Day Monday.

 Tropics

Remnants of Dolly

We still have the remnants of Dolly out in the Caribbean. There is a chance what’s left of Dolly will move into the eastern Gulf for Wednesday into the end of the coming week. Where it would have a chance to develop. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 10%

Invest 97L is now Potential Tropical Depression 5.

 It looks very impressive on satellite imagery, but it is still a tropical wave that is still developing, The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day odds of development at 80%. #5 is tracking west northwest in the direction of the Upper Texas Coast at 5 mph. The Min pressure is 1013mb, max sustained winds are 35 mph. The lack of a center means, the actual track is uncertain.  So, the upper Texas coast southwest Louisiana will have to keep a close eye on #5. Right now, this is a disturbance producing a lot of rain.

#5 looks to make a landfall tomorrow into early Wednesday

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

There isn’t going to be a lot of time for development, but a tropical storm or even the slight possibility of a hurricane can’t be ruled out. The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding with 3 to 6 inches likely and the potential for 6 to 12 inches of rain for some. 

The next name on the list is Edouard

 Have a great rest of your day!