Staying unsettled

 We have the stalled cold front sitting over northern and western New York State. This will slowly drop across the region with increasing clouds and rain showers with isolated thunderstorms.  Southwest winds ahead of the boundary will allow temperatures and humidity to increase ahead of the frontal boundary.  Then for Friday into Saturday Canadian High pressure will build in with below average temperatures and lower humidity.

 

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

 

Today

Temperatures and humidity will make it feel quite muggy. Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms will be dropping south and east during the afternoon into tomorrow morning. A few showers could be heavy at times. Which could lead to ponding on roadways and lead to some poor drainage flooding. As the front slowly advances skies will slowly clear behind the front with conditions becoming drier. the cold front will move through across New England and the northern Middle Atlantic tonight, with scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. 

Friday

 

The cold front will slide off the coast, and skies will clear as high pressure builds in. northwest winds will drive out the heat and humidity, the day will be chilly with low humidity

 

The weekend

High pressure will be setting over the region on Saturday. Sunshine should be abundant, with temperatures across the region being below to slightly below average.  The daytime hours should be dry. But an approaching warm front could allow rain showers to return Saturday across southern parts of the region, depending on the speed of that front. The warm front will continue to advance through the region on Sunday, with seasonal to slightly above-average temperatures. The front will stall over the region, meaning cloudy skies and periods of rain for our Sunday. 

Next Week

The stationary boundary will be hanging around for Sunday into Tuesday with periods of showers. Localized areas could see enough rain, that some flooding will be a concern.  Temperatures will be average to slightly above average for early Fall, as the frontal boundary finely clears the area by Wednesday.

High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday, with temperatures turning chilly once again. Then on Thursday low pressure with a cold front will move through with widely scattered showers.

The Autumnal Equinox is next Tuesday at 8:05 PM.

 Drought Conditions.

Per the Northeast Regional Climate Center

 

“September 17, 2026 - Conditions deteriorated again this week in Maine, where extreme drought was introduced and severe and moderate drought grew in coverage. In addition, moderate drought expanded in northern New Hampshire. There were only minor improvements in the region. This included a reduction in severe and moderate drought in southeastern Massachusetts and shrinking coverage of abnormal dryness in small sections of central Massachusetts, northern Connecticut, and western and central New York. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 17 showed 1% of New York and New England in extreme drought, 4% in severe drought, 31% in moderate drought, and 18% as abnormally dry compared to 0%, 5%, 25%, and 27%, respectively, last week.”

The Atlantic

The disturbance spinning several hundred miles east of Bermuda is now labeled Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center. The NHC lowered the odds yesterday. But improving conditions has allowed I-98L to become slightly better organized. So, the NHC has raised the odds back up to 40%

I-98L isn’t in the most favorable environment right now. But conditions will improve enough over the weekend that will give 98L a window to slowly develop. After that dry air will cause some issues.  Those with Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor 98L.  but for now, the odds of significant strengthening are low. 98L poses no threat to the U.S, as it will turn north and then northeast next week.