Mesoscale Discussion 2218

 

Mesoscale Discussion 2218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...western
   Maryland...and far northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...

   Valid 032016Z - 032215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells across eastern Ohio and northwestern
   Pennsylvania will likely grow upscale and pose a more substantial
   wind threat downstream into central Pennsylvania through the
   evening. Downstream watch issuance is expected soon.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells are evident in
   regional radar imagery across northeast OH and northwest PA with a
   few instances of severe hail noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs
   continue to sample elongated hodographs favorable for splitting
   supercells with an attendant threat for large hail for the next hour
   or so. Given the propensity for splitting cells and tight clustering
   of convection, upscale growth into one or more organized lines
   appears probable over the coming hours. As this occurs, the
   potential for severe wind should increase as convection moves into
   central PA where air mass recovery has been ongoing through the
   afternoon (MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg per recent
   mesoanalysis estimates).

   ..Moore.. 09/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41068148 41388079 41698017 41397732 41157698 40807689
               39967720 39607747 39487796 39527869 40278123 40498158
               40728172 40888169 41068148 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN