An overall nice Labor Day Weekend!

 

The Northeast will have an overall nice weekend, but it will be a touch cool.  Also, there will be a few passing showers or thunderstorms for some of y’all across the region.

 

Surface Chart and Radar

 

 

Today

As the cold front slides slowly south and out of the region, the showers and storms should be across Southern Pennsylvania and Central and Southern New Jersey and points southward. The farther north you are the more sun you will see. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has southwest Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, into New Jersey at a Slight Risk for the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms. Strong, damaging wind gusts (Wind could gust above 70 mph) and heavy rain will be the primary hazard within these storms, though isolated hail, frequent lightning. With the heavy downpours localized flash and urban flooding is very possible.

 The Holliday Weekend

Things are looking to be mostly dry Labor Day weekend with slightly below to seasonal temperatures and lower humidity. But we will have an Upper-Level-Low sitting south of Atlantic Canada. The trough will see weak disturbances rotate around the ULL, bringing the chance for very isolated brief showers. But most of the time from Saturday through Monday the region should be dry. Those will the best chance of seeing these showers will be in New England

Next Week

A front dropping out of Canada will pass through Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring scattered rain showers during the overnight into Tuesday. We will also see cooler temperatures move in as well. Then on Wednesday high pressure will setup briefly as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will slide through on Thursday producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

The September 2nd severe outbreak

Image curtesy of Aaron Gillies

A mothership supercell moved through Western New York, producing six tornado warnings and widespread wind damage.  The name come from the massive, rounded, low‑hanging cloud base and distinctive layered, UFO‑like appearance.

The National Weather Service storm survey teams on Thursday to assess damage caused by severe thunderstorms and have so far, have confirmed 5 tornadoes.

NWS Binghamton confirmed an EF1 near Waterloo in Seneca County, NY. It had max winds of 95 mph with a track of between 6 and 7 miles with a max width of 250 yards.

 the other was an EF2 tornado near Fayette also in Seneca County. It had winds up to 115 mph and tracked 7.76 miles with a max width of 200 yards. 

NWS Buffalo confirmed an EF-1 tornado was confirmed in Medina, Orleans County, NY. It had estimated winds of 105 mph and tracked 1.20 miles with a max width of 200 yards.

Another confirmed tornado was an EF-1 east of Alexander Genesee County, NY. It had estimated winds of 110 mph and tracked 3.78 miles with a max width of 150 yards.

EF-1 tornado was confirmed in Olcott, NY, Niagara County, NY. It had estimated winds of 105 mph and tracked 0.67 miles with a max width of 70 yards.

Both offices also confirmed several microbursts.

I expect more data and information to be released today. 

Drought Outlook

Looking at the side-by-side map, conditions continued to improve in the Mid-Atlantic Region and southern New England but deteriorated over parts northern New England and sections of upstate New York State. The good news is that we can see extreme drought was erased from the Northeast and severe drought was removed from New Jersey, while moderate drought and abnormal dryness shrank in the region’s southeastern corner. However, severe and moderate drought expanded in Maine, while abnormal dryness grew in coverage in Maine, New Hampshire, and northern into Central and western New York State.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released yesterday showed 0% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 3% in severe drought, 15% in moderate drought, and 25% as abnormally dry compared to less than 1%, 2%, 14%, and 23%, respectively, last week.