Everything will go downhill from here!

We've been busy getting ready for winter and getting hay in. So, the post have been later than I would like.  

This is going to be a long duration coastal storm….

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

We’re watching low pressure develop off the East Coast, with strong high pressure in place over eastern Canada.

Water has been piling up in the Chesapeake Bay and along the Jersey Shore. These areas are already dealing with tidal flooding. In addition, dangerous rip currents are impacting the Jersey shore. This is ahead of the impact of the nor'easter.

As it develops it will become cut off from the jet stream and meander around as it slowly moves up the east coast. So, we’re going to see rounds of rain develop Friday afternoon from North Carolina to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The rain will become steady, at times heavy, and these northeast winds will prevail through the weekend continuing to pile up the water.

Wind gusts run 30-60mph, with a chance for localized wind gust approaching hurricane force at the coast, especially across Southeast Massachusetts. With leaves on the trees the risk for tree damage and scattered power outages increases.

Saturday through Monday, windy rain showers will be off and on from New Jersey to Maine.

The storm looks to loop toward New England, So the strongest winds and heaviest rain look to stay away from New York City down into the Middle Atlantic. But this means, the strongest impacts look to occur Friday night through Saturday night along Rhode Island, central and eastern Massachusetts, eastern Connecticut, southeastern New Hampshire and the southern Maine coast.

Rain totals could reach 2-to-4 inches from New Jersey to southern Maine. Higher totals of 4-to-6 inches could impact Boston, Cape and offshore islands, Rhode Island Southeast Connecticut and Long Island, New York. Rain totals of 6+ inches are possible especially from central Massachusetts to Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard.

Waves of 10-15 feet are likely from North Carolina's Outer Banks to the New Jersey shore through Saturday.  Then from Friday to Sunday, huge waves of 15 to 20 feet are possible from Massachusetts to Maine.

Improvement is instore for the mid-Atlantic this weekend, with things improving by Monday for New England.

Given that the nor'easter will be slowly moving and sitting over the very warm water of the Gulf Stream for two or three days, the storm could become subtropical. But regardless of classification, the storms impact for coastal areas will be the same.

The biggest impacts from this nor’easter will be over eastern New England Friday through Sunday, some rain and wind will make it into western New England… northern and central Vermont (including the Champlain Valley), much of New Hampshire, central Maine into eastern New York State during the day on Saturday. Generally, rainfall looks to be around 1-2 inches of rainfall, with gust of 20-40 mph.  rain showers will make it as far west as Central New York into northern Vermont, far northern New Hampshire and northern Maine over the weekend. Rainfall totals look to be 0.25- 1.0 inches with wind gust of 10-20 mph.

Showers and breezy conditions will linger across Southeast and eastern New England Monday before things begin to improve for by Tuesday and Wednesday.