It’s dry but we need rain.

 Yesterday I was talking about the developing displacement of the Polar Vortex, what’s going on with the PV is extremely earlier than what is considered average. It’s unusual but not unheard of.  The last time this happen was way back in November of 1968. The winter of 1968-69 was quite an interesting winter. It featured a mostly cold December a very mild January, back to a cold and stormy February, with winter hanging on into March.  1968-1969 was a moderate El Nino year with a peak ONI: +1.0°C.  So that El Nino was much weaker than the one we’re currently dealing with. Could what happened in 1968 be a hint of what could happen during winter 2026-2027? Maybe!  As I said in the Winter Outlook this winter will bring a lot of surprises.  The setup in the Pacific is the reason for the strong storms that have been pounding Alaska and Northwest Canada for the last few weeks. Currently we have a storm impacting Alaska with another just off the Washington State Coast. This is resulting in cold air being driven south bringing snow to the Cascades and Rockies where 6-12+ inches is likely at elevations above 3,000 feet This is also bringing the bring the first snow of the season for parts of the northern Plains. While our region won’t see any snow, the time that we will is getting closer.

The Winter Outlook also talked about the El Nino’s impact on the Sub-Tropical Jet. Because of the interaction and enhancement of the Sub-tropical jet a moisture plume is going to direct rain into Southern California and the Southwest U.S. Moisture from Tropical Storm Vance will also move from Mexico into the Southwest, for the back half of the week.  All of this is likely to lead to a powerful storm that will move off the Pacific and impact the Desert Southwest as we get into the first couple of days of November. The sub-tropical jet is going to become and stay active moving forward.  This pattern will bring storms to the Southeast and move north up the Coast. Our November is going to look very different than we’ve seen the past 10-12 days. Just because the PV is going to weaken, is no guarantee that our region is going to experience an arctic airmass and snow. But that doesn’t mean we can’t see some cold and snowflakes.  

 

 Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite

 

 

Today

We have high pressure centered over the Virginias along with a cold front draped to our south.  We also have a low pressure system approaching the Upper Great Lakes with a leading warm front and trailing weakening cold front. Our temperatures are coolish for this time of year. But all in all it’s not too bad. The region is also dry. Which isn’t what some of y’all what to hear, as large parts of our region need the rain.

For the rest of the week

Tomorrow will see the high pressure start to push east; a southwest wind will allow temperatures to climb. Thursday the southwest flow will continue Making Thursday even warmer! as the high pressure continues to push east.  Later in the day on Thursday into Friday a cold front is going to pass through the region. This isn’t going to be a big rain producer. But isolated scattered showers could bring some of us a little rain. How measurable any of this rain will be, remains to be seen

High pressure builds back in for Friday into Sunday. Providing tranquil and dry conditions, making Halloween Saturday fairly mild, so trick or treating should be fairly pleasant. Don't forget after all the ghost, goblins, ghouls and witches are done we fall back at 2:00 am Sunday, so set your clocks back on Halloween night.

Our next chance for scattered rain showers will be Sunday night into Monday as a trough move in. Tuesday will see a warm front approaching.