Welcome to Winter 2024-2025

 

The Winter Solstice arrived at 4:21 this morning.

The surface and radar charts show, the Coastal storm pulling away toward the Maritimes, with an Arctic high building in, Lake effect is falling downwind of the Lakes, with lingering snow over New England behind the departing storm. The Lake and coastal snow will wind down tonight.

Tonight the winds will calm, and temperatures will become very cold tonight. Temperatures won’t recover much tomorrow. The region should generally be tranquil tomorrow into Monday. Then Monday night a clipper currently over southern Alberta, will approach, this will move through on Christmas Eve, bringing blustery winds  and widespread light snow to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern and Central New England into northwest Connecticut. With a mix over southern Pennsylvania, across southern New England, southeast New York State into Long Island and northern New Jersey.  A mix/rain south of there.

So far, this winter has featured a Pacific strong jet stream dominating the North American pattern. This is due to the well above average SST in the northern Pacific, and the cold air up over a large part of northern Canada

A strong shot of arctic air is descending on the region.

Here is a look at the 2-meter temperature anomaly, showing the arctic airmass over the region.

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There won’t be any big storms over the next 5 days, but a clipper coming through Monday night and Tuesday will bring some snow to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into Central New England.

 

This will be followed by a warmup. Then a pattern change looks to bring back the troughing and colder air over the eastern CONUS. I’ve been talking about this pattern for quite some time. I want to show how the pattern looks to trend on the Models. So this shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

 

 

 

Past Christmas we look to have very strong high pressure over the eastern US and Canada, this will allow for warm air transport into the Northeast.

 

 

The 2 meter 5-day temperature anomaly shows the CONUS has plenty of above average temperatures past Christmas.

 

 

 

Looking past Christmas, we can see a high-pressure ridge over both the eastern US and  Canada. The 850mb temperature anomaly is showing warm air over most of North America, with a dome extending up over Canada.

 

 Long Range

This deals with looking at how the pattern looks to set up, and general model trends

 Looking at the EURO extended range, we can see the pattern flipping back to a ridge in the west and a trough here in the east.

 

The GEFS is showing the same general trend, with cold air returning to the eastern CONUS.

 

 

So, for the first half of January, the jet stream pattern looks to support a deep trough over the eastern CONUS. It also looks to support a good chance for cross polar flow events. That could make the first part of January very cold.

During this period, the pattern should stay very active, so we should be seeing more snow events. 

Based on how the pattern looks to evolve and the trends that seem to be setting up. Once we get into the 2^nd half of January, the pattern looks to flip again to one supporting troughing in the west, colder air over western North America, with more in the way of a zonal flow (west to east) and general ridging over the eastern third of the CONUS. If this does happen, then the 2^nd half of January would see more in the way of milder conditions for our region.

My winter outlook laid out the same up and down pattern we've seen so far. A look at the next 4 to 6 weeks, shows that theme looks to continue.

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December 20th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows the Arctic Front approaching from the West, along with an area of low pressure developing off the Coast.  The Clipper to our west will be tracking south and east, where it will transfer its energy to the Coastal Low. The Clipper is moisture starved so it won’t bring a lot of snow with it. Western parts of New York State and northern parts of Pennsylvania could see a general 2 to maybe 4 inches out of this with some seeing as much as 3-6 inches especially in those higher elevations. Those in Southwest Pennsylvania into Western Maryland could see a T to 1 inch.   Those across Central, northern into most of eastern New York State and western Massachusetts and Vermont look to see 1-3 inches of snow. But the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and into the Green Mountains could see 2-4 inches.

The air coming in is going to be very cold, As the Coastal develops and moves north and east toward Atlantic Canada, it will work with this cold and become a powerful nor’easter. But it is enough south and east, to keep its impacts away from much of our region.  But as the cold air moves into the Middle Atlantic and southern and eastern New England it will change rain over to snow. Northern Southeast Pennsylvania (including Philadelphia, New Jersey into New York City, and far western Connecticut could see 1-maybe 2 inches. Central Connecticut into Central Massachusetts a T to an inch is likely but there could be upwards of 2 inches in the higher hills. Eastern Massachusetts (including Boston) 1 to maybe 3 inches is possible, but Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Offshore Islands 2-4 inches with a chance for locally higher amounts. For New Hampshire and western Maine a T to an Inch or so is likely, Eastern Maine could see 1-3 with Down East Maine seeing 3-6 inches.

The storm will be pulling away tomorrow, heading into the Canadian Maritimes, where it will bring blizzard conditions.

As the storm pulls away it will allow winds to switch to the Northwest, winds will be come gusty, with gust of 20-30 mph. This will make the Arctic air feel even colder, it will also allow for Lake Effect snow bands to setup Southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  Those under the most persistent bands could see 3-6 inches with pockets of higher amounts possible.

Over the Weekend into Monday a series of troughs will move through keeping things a bit unsettled, with a chance for a few snow showers and flurries.  

Saturday night and Sunday strong high pressure will move in from Canada. This will shut down the lake effect, winds will diminish, but temperatures will drop even more. Northern areas could struggle to get into the teens, while places like Washington DC end up in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Monday continues with the Cold, with light and variable winds. For Christmas Eve, a weak system will approach and move through, this will bring light snow showers to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those south of there will likely see a mix. The best chance for any accumulation will be over the interior. Christmas Day, the system should be exiting with clearing developing west to east.      

December 19th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

Christmas is getting closer, so the travel forecast is important!

The surface chart shows our 1^st cold front is off the coast with another trying to approach the Coast.  Behind the first cold front we’re seeing a change to sun, with breezy winds and cooling temperatures.  The 2^nd cold front over Northern New England down through Pennsylvania is in the process of stalling out. There are a few hit and miss snow showers over northern parts of the region, with a bit of lake effect falling downwind of Lake Ontario.

Another Clipper currently over the Upper Midwest will be dropping South and East. Tomorrow this will be weakening over Southwest Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia. From here we will see energy transfer off the Coast, where a secondary area of low pressure will develop, For later Tomorrow into Saturday.  Gusty winds will bring in frigid Arctic Air, as these winds move over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, they will allow for lake effect snow to fall downwind of Both Big Lakes. This is going to be the coldest air so far this season for the weekend into the first part of next week.

As the storm develops off the Coast it will be moving North and East heading toward Nova Scotia. This track will keep the bulk of the storm out over the ocean. But as cold air filters in, rain will change over to some snow over interior parts of the Northeast. There are signs that the storm dynamics could allow for measurable snow into southeast Massachusetts, down into New Jersey. An accumulation of a few inches upwards of a foot of snow will be possible over parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and Northern into Central New England. Where the boundary layer between the cold air pushing in the warm air to the east will be very important. Those along the boundary, in Down East Maine, Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Southeast and Southern Connecticut, Long Island including New York City, back into New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania could see the first snow of the season, with accumulations of a trace to a couple of inches. There could be locally higher amounts as well, along that boundary. Who sees what will depend on the exact track the ocean storm takes.

As the ocean storm approaches Atlantic Canada, strong high pressure will push down from Canada, this will bring even colder air for Sunday and Monday. Skies will clear and winds will subside, leading to a very cold Sunday night into Monday morning. The high pressure will also shut down the lake effect snow bands.

Tuesday a warm front will be lifting in, this could allow for snow showers, for Christmas Eve for a large part of the region. Light snow accumulations are possible. Christmas Day, looks to see lingering snow showers. But these shouldn’t cause travel issues. Thursday, another coastal storm looks to develop, this will be another complex setup, with rain, mix, and snow for the region.

 

 

December 18th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

Today’s temperatures are mild

The surface chart and radar show a Clipper system approaching from the west. Ahead of the cold front rain will move over the region late today into tonight, This will change over to wet snow for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into Central New England, this changeover will occur first in the higher terrain.

This is going to be a quick mover, so rain/snow amounts will be light, generally 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch of rain. With those that changeover to snow, seeing a T-an inch in the valleys, then a general 1-3 inches of snow elsewhere, with the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites seeing 3 to around 6 inches. expect brisk winds with the system. The system will be pulling away on Thursday morning, allowing for clearing skies and slowly falling temperatures. Behind the departing Clipper, limited lake effect will be falling downwind of the Great Lakes, accumulations should be light.

For Friday, another disturbance will move through, this will bring widespread light rain and snow showers and windy conditions across the region, again snow amounts will be light, with perhaps a few inches in the highest elevations. Behind the front, limited lake effect will once again be falling. We’re going to see low pressure develop offshore from here it looks to track towards Nova Scotia Friday night into Saturday. The ocean system looks to stay far enough  offshore for the bulk of this to stay to the east. But it could get close enough for a bit of rain/mix/snow over parts of New England. There could even be a few snow showers over the northern Middle Atlantic and I-95 corridor, there is a chance for very light accumulations for eastern north Maryland,  north Delaware, and part of New Jersey into NYC and Long Island.  Any westward shift in the track, could bring more impacts for the region. Behind all of this Arctic air will invade the region. This will be the coldest air so far this season, just in time for the Winter Solstice which starts Saturday at 4:21 am. Saturday will be cold and windy, with Sunday being even colder but with less wind. The cold will stick around for Monday, before starting to lift out. For Tuesday into Wednesday it will be warmer, but temperatures don't look to be as warm as they did a few days ago.  There is a chance for another Clipper like system looks to move through on Christmas Eve, bringing a chance for rain for southern parts of the region, and a chance for light snow along the New York State/Pennsylvania border and northward across New York State and Northern and Central New England. Snow amounts don’t look to be impressive.  Time for this to change so we will see. After Christmas it looks to turn quite mild. But I don't think it will last; as January still looks to be very cold. 

 

 

Will there be a White Christmas?

My winter outlook said, this winter would see a seesaw temperature pattern; so far, that has certainly been the case.  The pattern has been very active. The outlook said how an active December was likely. My outlook also said this winter would see a fight between the MJO and other teleconnections. That too has been the case so far this winter.

Snowfall has hit parts of the region hard, while other areas haven’t seen any snow yet.  The reason for this has to do with that battle between the various teleconnections. The pattern hasn’t supported Major snowstorms coming up the Coast. Instead, we’ve seen a parade of Clipper systems, with the cold air in place these have brought snow to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and Northern into Central New England.  The Outlook said, the typical snowbelts should end up with overall above average to well above average snowfall for the season. So far, the snowbelts downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario have done very well, with snowfall running well above average for this point in the season. The Outlook said, how the Middle Atlantic and I-95 look to see a warmer winter and maybe little in the way of snow.

We’re only in December, so there is plenty of time for more areas to see snow, due to the active pattern looking to continue. Snowstorms of course will depend on available cold (we must have the cold in place before the snow) as well as the storm track.  I can tell you winter isn’t over.

So far, my winter outlook is going very well. The question is, will that be the case come Spring? I have a lot of confidence that the pattern I thought would occur, is indeed happening, so I guess we will see.

White Christmas?

The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn’t have to snow on Christmas Day to have that distinction.

We’re going to be warm tomorrow. But then a system will come through, that will start to cool us off. But over the weekend, temperatures are going to be frigid. The system that comes through Wednesday night and Thursday will produce light snow for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into central New England. As we get into Christmas week, temperatures are going to turn mild again. There is no widespread snowstorm, looking likely, as the storm track looks to push its way near the Canadian border. But a weak system could bring a bit of snow for some.

If there is enough cold air in place (which is a big if), those with the best chance of seeing snow on the ground are going to be across far northern New York State and Northern New England, especially in the higher elevations.   While those south of there will likely be only dreaming of a White Christmas.

 

December 17th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows a weak cold front crawling across the region, with another cold front up over the Upper Great Lakes down through the Midwest.

Ahead of the 1^st cold front winds are a bit breezy with very mild temperatures for this time of year. This cold front will continue to move east today into tomorrow, providing isolated to scattered rain showers.

The 2^nd system associated with a northern disturbance, with low pressure developing along it in the Tennessee Valley. As this area of low pressure moves north and east It will bring rain for most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, into Southern New England. The cold air on the backside will cause rain to change over to a mix and snow in the higher elevations of Pennsylvania. This will also occur across New York State and Northern into Central New England. This will result in a general 2-4 inches of snow/mix across these areas, with the lower elevations and valleys seeing a T-1”. And the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens, and whites seeing 3-6” or so.

The cold front will be pushing east on Thursday, behind the front winds will become gusty, and temperatures will become colder. With the colder air moving over the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will be falling on Thursday, but right now this looks to be limited.

Friday we will see low pressure develop off the coast, this looks to develop too far south and east to bring snow to the I-95 corridor and the Coastal Plain.  This Low will move toward Atlantic Canada Friday night into Saturday. Right now, this looks to stay far enough away, to prevent the Northeast from seeing a major snowstorm. But any westward shift in the track could bring impactful snow to parts of New England into parts of Interior New York State.

For Saturday through Monday, Arctic air is going to move into the region, this will be the coldest air of the season so far. This cold won’t stick around, as temperatures will turn mild next week. But as I’ve been saying cold air will be making a return for January. With the Northern Jet staying active, we can expect more snow chances for at least part of our region moving through next month.  

So far, the pattern I laid out in the Winter Outlook, looks to be playing out as expected.

Remember, winter on the Calendar officially starts at 4:21 a.m. Saturday, with the arrival of the winter solstice.

 

December 16th 2024.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

Our latest system that brought the rain and snow is exiting to the east, other than some lingering rain mix the region is going to be dry. But another system over the Ohio Valley is approaching. This will push north and east and head into Canada, this will allow for a warm front to bring in milder air for the next few days. The trailing cold won’t have much cold air behind it. So, tomorrow and Wednesday will be quite mild.

A disturbance in the northern stream will interact with a weak disturbance with moisture in the southern stream, the leading warm front will allow mostly rain to move across the region, but there could be some mixing in the highest elevations. The trailing cold front will move through later Wednesday into Thursday; this will bring mostly rain for most of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic, with rain changing over to a snow/mix over the Appalachians, higher elevations of Pennsylvania, into New York State and Northern into Central New England.  Mostly rain is likely across southern New England.  Chiller air will start to move in behind this system, so there could be a few snowflakes in the I-95 and closer to the coast, but no accumulation is expected.

We have a system moving onto the Northwest Coast. This will head toward the Upper Midwest, from here it will move over the Great Lakes as it dives south and east. Behind this arctic air currently locked up over Northern Canada, will drop into the Eastern CONUS.  On Friday we look to see low pressure to our south that could develop off the Coast. How this interacts with the arctic front will depend on track and timing.  There is a chance for an impactful winter storm to bring accumulating snow to interior parts of the Northeast. But the timing of all this has to be worked out. One thing is certain much colder air will work into the region over the Weekend into Next week, this could be the coldest air so far this season. The lake effect will be falling behind the system, so those downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, will be adding more snow.  

The Winter Solstice, gets here this Saturday at 4:21 a.m.

 

December 15th 2024.

 

A surprise 2nd post this weekend... enjoy! 

Our approaching weak system is over the Ohio Valley, we have rain/mix moving across Western Pennsylvania into New York State, this system will move East, on it’s way toward the Northern Middle Atlantic, then track south of New England.

This will bring a rain, mix, snow event to a large part of the region. As far as impacts…

Central into part of Northeast Pennsylvania, could see 2-6 inches of snow

New York State, Northwest Massachusetts into parts of Southern into Central Vermont and New Hampshire will be on the cold side of the storm, so these areas in the higher elevations could see 1-3 inches of snow, with T-1 inch in the lower elevations and valleys. Northwest Connecticut could also see a T to less than an inch.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Winter Weather Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for Western Maryland and a large portion of Pennsylvania, part of Southeast New York State into Connecticut due to the possibility for freezing rain. Sleet and freezing rain Freezing rain will be an issue for Appalachians into the Laurel Highlands. Some of this ice will likely be heading into Northwest Pennsylvania and Finger Lakes, there looks to also be some freezing rain for southern and eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island.

Most of Y’all across Northern New York State, Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and Maine will stay dry; but there could be a few flurries at times

Eastern New England might only see a few sprinkles if anything

For Southeast Pennsylvania, Eastern Maryland, Delaware, most of New Jersey, Long Island and along the Coast this should be just a rain event.

A system quickly following this one, will pass up over the Great Lakes into Canada, this will drag a warm front across the region, warming us up Tuesday and Wednesday. Then another system will move through, which will drag back in cold air for Friday and over the Weekend.

Those looking for a snowstorm around Christmas

I talked about the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) the other day, and how it looks to move into the colder phases as we get into January. So I won't get back into that.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are currently moving into positive phases; both of these look to stay positive this week into Christmas. This would setup a zonal (West to East) flow, which would suppress the trough, resulting in a quick parade of clipper type systems, a positive NAO would limit the chance for high latitude blocking, with a positive AO locking the cold air up over the Arctic. This isn’t the type of pattern that promotes major East Coast Snowstorms.

The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and subsurface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific are below average so we look to be on the cusp of a weak La Nina, which would last through the winter. So far, this season has seen the Polar Vortex (PV) being very erratic with swings between a compressed PV and a stretched PV. Some of the analogues I used for this winter’s outlook, also had a similar behaving PV. But this year’s PV has been uncommonly quick with these changes. As we head into Christmas, the PV looks to keep a lot of the cold air locked up in the north, but once we get into January, we look to see more of these bouts of stretching or pieces of the PV breaking off. So, January should end up cold, maybe very cold.   

For the next 10 to 15 days, I just don’t see any major snowstorms, coming up the Coast. Instead, we’re going to be dealing with a series of Clippers bringing in light to at times moderate snow, these clippers will also keep the lake effect machine active. This patten is also the reason, I said in the outlook, parts of the I-95 corridor might end up with little to no snow this entire winter. We will see how things go!

 

 

December 14th 2024.

 

A quick look at the next 5 days.

We have high pressure anchored to the north providing plenty of cold air, in spite of all the sun.

For tonight and tomorrow

Tonight is going to feature mostly to all clear skies, with winds calming down, it’s going to be a very cold night into early Sunday morning.

The pattern is going to be active with a series of warm and cold fronts coming through the region. after our cold overnight and Sunday morning, temperatures are going to trend warmer.

A weak system rolls through on Sunday, with a stalled area of low pressure along the front.  This will bring a mix of rain and snow during the day.

A few inches of snow across Central Pennsylvania into Central into Eastern New York State

 Due to cold air damming, there is likely going to be some freezing rain with this later in the day into the overnight hours; Some Ice in the sheltered valleys is going to be a concern, especially across western into central Pennsylvania and Western Maryland these areas could see upwards of 0.25 of an inch of ice. Some of this ice could make it into the Finger Lakes.

The high pressure will move off the Coast tomorrow, ahead of another system approaching from the west.

High pressure, the reason for Saturday’s sun, is moving off the New England coast Sunday morning.  This means a quick return of moisture ahead of a weak weather system in the Midwest.

Tuesday into Wednesday a cold front will approach and move through the region. As the front moves east, colder air will be moving in behind it. We look to see an area of low pressure try to develop over Virginia into the Carolinas; how this impacts the region will depend on timing between the northern stream and southern stream.  With the front into Thursday winds will be quite breezy.

For Thursday night into Saturday, here is a chance for rain/mix/snow across the region.  who sees what will depend on the track. Right now, there is a chance for Interior snows for the Appalachians up into Pennsylvania as well as the northern tier of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into Central New England, especially the higher elevations. Elsewhere it would be a better chance for rain/mix.

Into next weekend, we could see a Clipper move through, that would bring snow to New York State and Northern and Central New England. This Clipper would also start up the lake effect machine once again.

 

DROUGHT MONITOR...

 

The latest drought monitor map shows there was limited improvement in drought conditions across parts of New York State and Pennsylvania. But other than that drought conditions were relatively unchanged in the rest of the region.   This week only 3.03% of the Northeast was not experiencing drought or abnormal dryness, the fourth-lowest percentage since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on December 12 showed 4% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 19% in severe drought, 42% in moderate drought, and 32% as abnormally dry compared to 4%, 19%, 42%, and 33%, respectively, last week.

 

December 13th 2024.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

The latest bout of Arctic air is making for cold temperatures. The cold blustery winds moving over the Great Lakes brought feet of snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Looking at the radar image the lake effect is winding down off of Lake Erie, with the band off of Lake Ontario shifting southward. Those under the shifting band will likely pick up 3-8 inches of snow, before the band dissipates tonight.

Tomorrow, there could be some lingering lake snow near the Lake Shore of Lake Ontario, everyone else should stay generally dry.  As high-pressure drifts in and things shift east, we will see temperatures slightly warmer, but still below average.  Sunday will see temperatures warm more, with the day starting dry. But changes will be going on.

For Sunday and Monday, a system currently in the Southern Plains will be approaching, as it moves over the Northern Middle Atlantic it will be rather weak.  Thing will likely start as a snow/freezing rain mix over southwestern Pennsylvania Sunday morning, then as it warms this will change to all rain. The mix then rain will work into western New York State during the afternoon, then working into Central New York State and Pennsylvania by Sunday night. This weather will work North and East during the rest of Sunday into Monday.  Depending on how well the system hold together, a snow freezing rain mix to rain could move into New England on Monday.  Those in Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey into Southeast New York State and southern New England this should be all rain.

Most of next week should be fairly mild, with the weather staying unsettled.

Another weak cold front will move through for Monday night and Tuesday, this will keep is a bit unsettled with scattered rain showers and a chance for a bit of a mix in the higher elevations. Wednesday is looking to be warm and basically dry. Thursday a cold frontal boundary will approach, this will allow for cooler temperatures to start to work in.  Then on Friday a stronger area of low pressure will be approaching from the South, how this track will be the factor in who sees what. Another factor will be the timing of available cold. But right now, this looks to bring waves of rain across Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic, the rain will likely extend into Southern New York State and Southern New England Rain could be heavy at times. Those in the Poconos and Catskills will likely see a mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain and snow. Those across Central and Northern New York State and Northern into Central New England there will likely be a rain/sleet/freezing rain mix, depending on timing there could some accumulating snows, this will be especially true in the higher elevations.

 

The MJO is going to be in phase 7 near the end of the month, then losing amplitude as it moves into phase 8. As I’ve said several times these phases are considered cold phases this time of year. But with the MJO not being as strong as it could be, means below average temperatures but it shouldn’t be super cold. 

As I warned in the Winter Outlook, the temperature pattern is going to be up and down.

January could see stretching of the Polar Vortex. Depending on the direction of the stretch at least part of January could be quite cold. The polar vortex is an area of low pressure over the North Pole. When the PV is strong it locks up the cold air over the Arctic, but when it weakens and stretches or have pieces break off, arctic cold is able to plunge into the lower latitudes.  There are early signs that the PV could also make a visit during February as well. Time will tell.

 

 

 

December 12th 2024.

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

Looking at today, away from the Great Lakes there are a few scattered snow showers over New England, with everyone else generally dry. Downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario heavy lake effect is falling. The lake effect will continue off of Lake Erie tomorrow, with the lake effect continuing off of Lake Ontario into Saturday morning. When all is said and done, under the most persistent bands, upwards of 3 feet will have fallen off of Erie, and around 4 feet off of Lake Ontario.

The first part of December has been overall cold.

Over the next few days, we’re going to see several cold fronts with troughs come through the region, these will keep it unsettled and bring scattered snow showers and flurries to parts of northern parts of the region, while southern parts of the region deal with lower elevation rain/mix showers and snow showers in the higher elevations of Pennsylvania.

Next week is going to feature a warming trend, with scattered rain showers for many of us and higher elevation snow showers.  

Right now, we’re in a transition to cold closer to Christmas and especially into January.

Thursday and Friday a frontal system will be approaching and moving through. This will be the begin a transition to cold closer to Christmas and especially into January.

With the pattern staying very active, there will be more snow chances moving forward. With the cold in place for Christmas week, could we see snow around or even on Christmas, maybe!

December 11th 2024.

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

It has been very mild the last couple of day, but that is about to change.

A strong cold front will be moving through allowing much colder air to move in, along with very gusty winds, with 15-30 mph and gust as high as 50 mph over interior areas, with even higher gust of 60-70 mph possible along the coast.

Today will feature waves of rain moving south to north, that will be heavy at times. There will also be embedded thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Rainfall amounts of 1-4 inches are likely, with localized amounts of 5-8 inches possible. The surface chart and radar, show what’s going on overhead with rain changing over the snow across southwest Pennsylvania.

As the day goes on the much colder air will move west to east, leading to a flash freeze, the transition to snow will also continue west to east. The snow/mix will be on the backside, so the amount of time it will be snowing will be rather brief. Snow will start in the higher elevations and then move into parts of the lower elevations. Snow is unlikely to accumulate in the river valleys and coastal plain. But elsewhere, most of y’all will see a T to an inch, with the higher elevations seeing 1-3 inches. Places like the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites 3-5 inches is possible.  

Tomorrow will see the storm drifting away, but winds will still be very gusty. The cold air coming over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes, will kick off lake effect snow downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The lake snows will continue into Saturday, before dissipating.  Off of Lake Erie, the highest amounts look to be south and east of Buffalo along the Boston Hills and along the Chautauqua Ridge where one to as much as three feet will be possible. Those east and northeast of Lake Ontario, in Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis into Herkimer Counties look to see the brunt of it. With the northern into central Tug Hill seeing two to near four feet of snow.

These colder temperatures will stick around into Saturday. Sunday temperatures will warm, as a system approaches. A rain mix will be over western New York State, into Pennsylvania. This will be dropping south and east during the day. Low pressure will pass to our south on Monday, there could be some rain over parts of southern Pennsylvania, into the northern Middle Atlantic.  For Tuesday low pressure will be off the coast, providing a chance for a few rain showers over the middle Atlantic. On Tuesday we will also be watching low pressure and a cold front approach from the west. This cold front will move through on Wednesday, bringing rain, with a higher elevation mix, as colder air streams in behind it.

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

Looking back at the 2024 hurricane season.

 

I’ve been very busy around the ranch for the last few weeks; I’ve also been busy trying to keep all y’all informed about the highly active and stormy pattern. But I did say I would post analysis on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The 2024 Atlantic Basin hurricane season officially ended on November 30th.

Before the hurricane season started, most weather outlets released outlooks calling for a very active hurricane season.  Some were even calling for a record-breaking season. I too was calling for an active season. But I listed several wild cards that would also be a factor during the season; the biggest wild card I talked about was going to be Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the Atlantic. I said “I think we’re going to be ending up dealing with SAL at times; this is going to help curtail development and strength of tropical cyclones that form out of the African waves; this should keep the 2024 season out of the record books when it comes to overall numbers of named storms. For that reason, my numbers will be a bit lower than some of these other outlets”. This turned out to be a big factor.

In my final call, I said… We would end up with 17-25 named storms. 8-12 of these would end up becoming hurricanes, with 4-8 of those becoming major hurricanes, with winds reaching 111 miles per hour or greater. When it came to Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), I said it would end up being 150 to 210…

Over the June 1^st to November 30^th season, the Atlantic Basin experienced 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes, including five major hurricanes. An average season  based on the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020 produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. ACE ended up reaching 162. Based on the 1951 to 2020 mean, an ACE index of 96 is generally considered average. So, to be considered near average, ACE would be within the range of 66 to 111. With the final ACE being 162 (33% above average), it would make 2024 officially a hyperactive season according to the definition used by NOAA.

Some of the seasonal outlooks issued by some outlets busted on the high side. But based on the numbers, my outlook, ended up with-in the range I called for.

 

Some details on the 2024 hurricane season:

Tropical Storm Alberto kicked off the season when he developed on June 19^th. Beryl formed soon after, she quickly intensified into the earliest Category 5 hurricane on Record in the Atlantic Basin. At one point Beryl’s max sustained winds were 165 mph. Beryl was a very deadly hurricane with 73 known fatalities and ending up causing multi-billion dollars in damage. The next storm to form was Tropical Storm Chris. August saw two hurricanes develop. Hurricane Debby form in early August. Then Hurricane Ernesto formed in Mid-August.

The Mid-Season Lull

During the peak of the hurricane season, a lull in activity occurred between the 20^th of August and the 23^rd of September, when no named storms developed. This type of thing is rare, the last time something similar happened was back in 1968.

The reason for this lull, had to due with moderate to high wind shear in the Eastern half of the Atlantic Basin, as well as increased Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust and dry air. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) stayed in unfavorable phased during this time as well. Another factor leading to the lull, was how warm temperatures were in the tropical upper atmosphere. This led to a much more stable airmass than would be expected for the peak of the hurricane season. When the atmosphere is stable, it is more difficult for thunderstorm complexes to develop, which lead to tropical cyclones.

The season after the Lull  

After the lull, the season resumed like gangbusters. with 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes forming before the end of the season.

These named storms consisted of: Hurricane Francine, Tropical Storm Gordon, Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Isaac, Tropical Storm Joyce, Hurricane Kirk, Hurricane Leslie, Hurricane Milton, Tropical Storm Nadine, Hurricane Oscar, Tropical Storm Patty, Hurricane Rafael, Tropical Storm Sara.

Of the 8 hurricanes, Kirk, Helene, Milton, and Rafael became major hurricanes. Hurricane Milton explosively intensified and became the seasons 2^nd Category 5 with max sustained winds of 180 mph and a min central pressure of 897 mb.

A total of 5 hurricanes made landfall in the continental US: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton. Helene and Milton made landfall as major hurricanes.

Most of the deaths during the hurricane season were caused by Beryl, Helene, and Milton, while the vast amount of the damage was caused by Helene and Milton. Of these Hurricane Helene was the deadliest by far and most destructive hurricane of the 2024 hurricane season.

There was one other system of note during the season.  On September 13, along a frontal boundary, there was an area of low pressure developing off the Carolina Coast. On the 15^th of September the system was observed to be detaching from the front; because of this the NHC gave the system the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. But on the 16^th the system weakened; because of this the NHC discontinued tropical storm warnings for the Carolinas.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was exceptionally ruinous with over $200 billion in damages and at least 400 deaths.

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