Drought Outlook, Thursday.

 

2024 has been a year of extremes in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. During the Spring into the Summer the region was very wet, with many areas seeing record rainfall amounts. We saw a lot of heat from Mid-May into August. The heat set the stage for drought conditions here in our region.  Then starting in late August, the region flipped to a dry pattern. Over the last several weeks many parts of the region haven’t received much in the way of rain. For a large part of our region, we saw the driest October on record.    

There is a saying, drought begets drought. There is a lot of truth in this, drought leads to more drought. The heat dries out the ground. As the ground continues to dry out, the air above the ground becomes drier and drier. Due to the dry ground the sun energy goes straight to warming the ground, with out having to waste energy evaporating the water that would be in the ground. As the ground heats up, it warms the air even more. Then the plants get into the mix. Normally plants give off moisture which increases humidity. But when the ground is dry, the plants hold on to the moisture, so the air becomes even drier.   This ends up as a feedback mechanism the results in a feedback loop, that makes things get worse and worse.

Many have asked where is the rain. The feedback loop gets so bad, that when systems have pushed into the region, they run into this bubble of dry air, the rain that start to fall, will dry up before it reaches the ground. This is what has led us to where we are right now.

 

November has continued the dry pattern, resulting in streamflow, groundwater levels, and soil moisture continuing to get worse. As a result, abnormally dry, moderate drought and severe drought has expanded across most of the region.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released earlier today showed 1% of the Northeast in exceptional drought, 6% in extreme drought, 13% in severe drought, 37% in moderate drought, and 37% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 4%, 10%, 23%, and 41%, respectively, last week.

I see the current back and forth pattern with overall dry conditions to continue. November will unlikely end up with overall above average temperatures. So the drought conditions going forward are liable to worsen.

  

It’s so Bipolar!

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

The surface chart shows the cold front moving across the region, with the frontal passage there will be a chance for a few isolated showers, with temperatures slowly falling. We will see another cold front come through late tonight and tomorrow, this will be very moisture starved so isolated rain showers and higher elevation snow showers are all that is expected. But behind the front westerly winds will turn northwesterly, which will bring in cooler temperatures, Friday is going to be very breezy with gust of 25-35 mph possible.

High pressure approaching the region will keep us coolish and dry through Saturday.  A cold frontal warm frontal system moves back through on Sunday and Monday bringing back the chance for scattered rain showers.

The high pressure will sit overhead for Monday through Wednesday, keeping things mainly dry with temperatures near seasonal. Then for Thursday a cold front will come through bringing back rain chances.    

 

Rafael

He hit Cuba as a Category 3, with Max sustained winds of 115 mph. He is now in the southeast Gulf, currently he is a Category 2 hurricane, with sustained winds of 100 mph, central pressure at 971 mb, tracking west-northwest at 9 mph.

He should stay away from the northern Gulf Coast, eventually tracking west out over the Central Gulf. Wind shear is moderate, but there is dry air that should weaken him gradually over the next few days. A system coming in from the west should slow him down before he makes a turn to the southwest. 

The Roller Coaster Continues

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

The surface chart shows the cold front approaching, with increasing southwest winds ahead of the front.  Radar shows rain over New York State into northern New England and extending down into western Pennsylvania. We also see lake effect rain falling northeast of Lake Erie. Lake effect rain will also be an issue downwind of Lake Ontario today.  

 As the front continues to push east, rain be more isolated, also as the front moves through temperatures will slowly fall. There could be lingering rain over parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England tomorrow morning, before clearing develops.  High pressure will bring plenty of sun, and dry conditions for Thursday, temperatures will be near seasonal.  

Sunday the high pressure will start to push east, a cold front will approach, as this moves through, scattered rain showers will work west to east into Monday. I don’t expect a lot of rain out of this.  Tuesday high pressure move back in along with chilly morning temperatures, then milder temperatures in the afternoon. Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday. Thursday we will be watching a frontal system in the Great Lakes.

 

 

 

  Rafael

After becoming a hurricane last evening, he has rapidly strengthened to a very strong Category 2, with Max sustained winds of 110 mph, central pressure at 960 mb, tracking northwest at 14 mph, as he moves along the boundary of that ridge of high pressure off the Southeast Coast.  

He is still intensifying due to the very favorable conditions. He will likely be a major Category 3 hurricane by the time he reaches Cuba.

As the ridge builds west it should keep him tracking northwest into the central GOM, then likely a shift west before reaching the northern Gulf Coast of Louisiana or Texas. As I’ve been saying there is going to be a lot of windshear and some dry air over the Gulf of Mexico so that should weaken him, prior to any landfall in the GOM. On satellite he is showing good outflow, this will help him battle the increasing wind shear as he gets into the Gulf of Mexico. So Rafael might weaken slower than I’ve been thinking.

On a rare political sidestep when it comes to my post... With the election behind us, I hope as a country, our people can find a way to bridge the deep and bitter divisions, that are the greatest threat to this country. We can disagree without all the hate!

 

A very warm Election Day

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

High pressure is slipping east, allowing a southwest flow to bring in Balmy temperatures for today, so it will be excellent to go and vote.

The surface chart shows the cold front over the Plains moving into the Midwest. As this approaches our region, it is going to be much weaker.

Today will be breezy, ahead of the moisture starved cold front, with rain chances going up for western Pennsylvania this evening, rain will become a little heavier tonight into the overnight, but coverage will be spotty. The rain will make it into western New York State early tomorrow morning, but again coverage will be isolated.  The weak cold front will push across New York State and Pennsylvania tomorrow morning and afternoon, making it into New England and the Middle Atlantic late in the day on Wednesday, again rain will be isolated to widely scattered.  The cooler air coming in behind the front will be slow to make it in, so Wednesday will still be fairly mild. There could be a few lingering showers for eastern parts of the region Thursday morning.

Thursday through Saturday, high pressure overhead will provide more sun and dry conditions, with temperatures cooling off to around seasonal. So, all in all, not all that bad for the first part of November.

Sunday, high pressure will shift off the Coast, which will allow a cold front to approach. This front will move through on Sunday into Monday, bringing a chance for scattered showers; some of these showers could briefly become locally heavy. Then high pressure builds back in for Tuesday and sticking around for a few days.

This back-and-forth temperature pattern is going to be with us for the foreseeable future.  There will be rain chances, but I don’t see any big soaking rain events. So don’t hold your breath looking for drought relief.

 

  Rafael

 

He is continuing to organize, the favorable conditions should allow him to become a hurricane later today, before impacting the Cayman Islands late this evening, and then western Cuba.  Once in the Gulf conditions do become much more hostile, but he should still be a hurricane when he gets into the Gulf on Thursday, he will move over the Gulf Stream, these waters are warm enough, that he could become a Category 2 hurricane, But the higher wind shear, dry air and cooler water north of the stream should weaken him fairly quickly.  So, if he makes it to the northern Gulf Coast, the best he looks to be is a tropical storm. Most of the guidance has him moving toward Louisiana and maybe Texas, but some do turn him west before reaching the northern Gulf Coast.

Between the high pressure in the Atlantic and Rafael to the west, Florida will be quiet windy, for the next couple of days, rain doesn't look to pose a flood threat. The flood threat becomes a bit higher for Georgia into parts of the western Southeast.

A look at the Northeast and Tropics.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

High pressure is starting to push east.

As the ridge sets up over head, we will see a mix of clouds and sun, with seasonal temperatures. As a warm front lifts into the region, there will be a risk for a few rain showers, but most of us should be dry. There will be a chance for a few snow showers over the higher elevations in the northern part of the region, but any accumulations will be very light. Later today and tonight, a southern flow, will allow temperatures to start climbing. So tonight, won’t near as chilly as last night, with any snow showers turning back to rain.

For Election Day Tuesday, the front will start to push into Canada, there will be the risk for some rain showers for those closer to the Canadian Border, with most of the rest of the region staying dry. Tomorrow the southwest winds will be stronger with gust of 30-35 mph possible, which will drive temperatures back to well above average for the first part of November.

Wednesday a weak moisture starved cold front will slowly move into the region, bringing the risk for isolated showers. Winds will continue to be breezy with most of the region stay very warm. With the frontal passage, cooler air will work back into the region.  Thursday, the front will continue to push south across the region. High pressure will build in behind the front, bringing more in the way of Sun and dry conditions, with seasonal to slightly above average temperatures through Saturday. Sunday will see the high pressure start to move away, as another cold front approaches and drops into the region. The cold front will continue to move across the region on Monday. With the front will come a chance for scattered rain showers.

For those looking for a nice soaking widespread rain, unfortunately I don’t see that happening for the foreseeable future. So, with sporadic rain and breezy conditions, the drought will continue to worsen and the fire danger will remain high across the region.

 

 

Tropics…

Patty became a tropical storm yesterday, but now she is just a remnant low, heading east at 17 mph, with max sustained winds of 35 mph, and a central pressure of 999 mb. This will be my last mention of Patty. 

Tropical depression 18

Invest 97L is now a tropical depression, this should become Rafael sometime today. Currently this is in the southwestern Caribbean and is about 400 miles south east of Grand Cayman. It is moving north at 9MPH, with winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1003mb. The TD should be near Jamaica later tonight. Then move close to or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. With the warm SST and favorable conditions, this could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Caymans and Cuba. For that reason, there are Tropical Storm Warnings up for Jamaica, and Hurricane Warnings up for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This will bring a swath of 8-14 inches of rain to parts of the Jamaica, Caymans, and western Cuba, with the high risk of flash flooding and landslides. The Terrain of western Cuba isn’t as mountainous as eastern Cuba, but it could still disrupt the circulation at least a bit.

By Thursday this will be in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a hurricane. The general setup is the same I talked about yesterday. We have high pressure to the north and east, with a front that is going to be dropping out of the southern Plains. The timing of this front is key as to where this ends up tracking. If the front is faster, it could steer this toward Florida. But if the front lags back (which is more likely), this would track generally toward Louisiana and Texas. It is also possible it could head toward Mexico.   The overall conditions over the GOM are not ideal. Wind shear and drier air will cause this a big issue, So I still expect this the weaken over the GOM.  

The NHC is watching another area near the northwest Caribbean...could Sara be out there?

Quick look at this week, Tropics and soon to be Rafael.

 

Today is sunny and a little warmer than yesterday. We have a warm front that is approaching and will move through on Monday and Tuesday. There could be isolated rain showers with the frontal passage.  This will usher in a strong southern flow, that will bring well above average temperatures for the 2^nd half of Monday and Election Day Tuesday.  For Tuesday night and Wednesday a moisture starved weak cold front will pass through bringing a chance for a few rain showers, but most should stay mostly to all dry. Out ahead of the front temperatures will still be very mild. Behind the front high pressure will build back in, meaning temperatures will cool slightly, but they should still be slightly above average for Thursday and Friday.

Tropics…

Subtropical Storm Patty, did pass over the Azores and is now pulling away.  Right now, she is heading east at 16 mph, with max sustained winds of 45 mph, and a central pressure of 992mb. She will become post tropical by tonight.

Invest 97L

The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 80% and 90%. I expect I-97L will become Rafael sometime tomorrow.

Tomorrow afternoon he will be approaching Jamaica, with winds picking up. Conditions will go downhill and the worst of it will be during the evening/night.  Then Tuesday it will be moving toward the Yucatan Channel and should be approaching the Cayman Islands, and Cuba late Tuesday and Tuesday evening/night.

The conditions in the western and central Caribbean are quite favorable for development. Wind shear is low and SST are very warm with a lot of deep-water heat content, atmospheric moisture is fairly robust. So, the likelihood of a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane is fairly high.

8-12 inches of rain will lead to flooding and mudslides to this part of the Caribbean.  Tropical Storm Force winds with gust to hurricane force will be possible for Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and western into central Cuba.

It remains to be seen how much the land interaction and the chance for some dry air will impact the circulation of I-97L. Once past Cuba, he will come close to the Keys.

By Thursday it should be in the Gulf.  The windshear will start to increase over the Yucatan Channel, and looks to become hostile over the GOM, water temperatures in the GOM have been cooling the last 7-10 days.

  Once in the GOM, we will have a front dropping out of the Central U.S. High pressure to it’s north and east. This steering pattern would suggest a track toward the Central GOM or the Yucatan. But, a track more generally toward the Florida Peninsula is possible. The conditions in the GOM are such that he should weaken fairly quickly as he heads over the Gulf. But everyone should keep an eye on him.

We do have that disturbance near Hispaniola. The development odds are a low 20%. The chance this will become a tropical depression is low, but it will be a big rainmaker for the northeast Caribbean. It is still a good possibility this will become absorbed by the circulation of I-97L in a couple of days. 

My last post has had only 73 views. For the amount of work it takes me to make these post, that is far too low. Please pass the word how to find and read the blog. I do thank those of y'all who are posting the link when I do post, which I try to do at least once a day.  Back when I was on Facebook, the daily views were 300-800, that is what I'm aiming for in the blog. I know the blog is far from ideal, but for now it's all I've got. I do know some of y'all can't post comments to the blog, I don't know why this is the case; as others seem to be able to post their comments.  There are two comment sections at the bottom of the page. If either of them don't work...I'm at a loss on how to fix it.  I can do a lot of coding but I'm far from an expert at it. so for now until I can find another site, this is the way it is. 

Sorry for any inconvenience! 

Patty has formed, just not where I expected.

Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the Northern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is showing, Patty has sustained winds of 50 mph, min central pressure of 986mb, she is tracking ESE at 7 mph. about 400 miles west/northwest of the Azores.

Subtropical storms share the characteristics of both a tropical cyclone and an extratropical cyclone. Subtropical storms are typically larger than their tropical counterparts, with the stronger winds farther away from the center. A Subtropical storm has a much colder core when compared to a tropical storm. Winds must be continuously blowing at 39 miles an hour up to 73 miles an hour.

 To learn more about this, here is a post I did a few years ago.

Conditions are favorable for now, as she heads toward the Azores. But conditions will become hostile late Sunday into Monday.  She should become post-tropical by Monday. As she heads toward Portugal and Spain next week.

The Caribbean

A broad area of low pressure called a Central American Gyre (CAG) is slowly developing over the southwest Caribbean. It could become Invest 97L at any time.  This part of the Caribbean has favorable conditions, Conditions are generally favorable for development over the region, with sea surface temperatures of 84°F to 85°F, a moist atmosphere, with moderate wind shear of 10-20 knots. This supports the idea there is a very high likelihood, that a tropical system will form in this region over the next 24 - 48 hours.

The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 60% and 80%, respectively.

A strong ridge of high pressure over Florida, is likely to initially steer this northward toward Jamaica, Then the steering winds should push this northwest and then west toward the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).  The conditions in the GOM will be much less favorable for sustainably with high wind shear and cooler SST. This is going to bring lots of rain and wind to Jamaica and western Cuba. The chances this will be an issue for the U.S. Coast is low. But those on the coast will want to keep an eye on this regardless.  

The next name on the list is Rafael.

The Southwest Atlantic

This area still has development odds of 10%. Any development is rather unlikely, but this will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Islands in the Northeast Caribbean as well as the southeast Bahamas.  This should eventually be absorbed by the tropical system that will be in the Caribbean.

 

Welcome to November!

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 Yesterday we saw record heat, today not so much!

The surface chart shows the cold front moving through with the rain over New England and approaching the Middle Atlantic Coast.  Winds will be a strong and very gusty along and ahead of the front, with winds of 20-30 mph, with higher gust possible.  Rain will end west to east by early afternoon.

This weekend is going to be dry with seasonal temperatures, as high pressure moves in overhead.

Monday will see high pressure start to exit the region, as a warm front approaches. A southwest flow will develop allowing for temperatures to warm up for Tuesday, scattered to isolated rain showers will accompany the front. A cold front will move through Tuesday night, Wednesday into Thursday. With the cold front things cool off again.

High pressure moves in for Friday and next weekend with cool and dry conditions.

Tropics…

The Central American Gyre (GAG), has moved into the Caribbean. As a result, the NHC has the 2-day and 7-day development odds at 30% and 70% in the southwest Caribbean.  With favorable conditions we should see a tropical depression develop over the weekend into next week.  There is a decent chance this becomes a named system sometime next week. How it tracks will depend on the location of high pressure to it’s north.  So, this looks to head toward the Yucatan. It could lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

We do have two other areas to watch, one is near Puerto Rico, this area of disturbed weather has 2-day/7-day odds of 10%. As this drifts westward, it could become absorbed by the larger system in the Caribbean. The other system is in the open north Atlantic west of the Azores. The odds of this becoming something subtropical are at a 2-day/7-day 10%.

If the system in the southwest Caribbean gets into the GOM 2^nd half of next week, high wind shear over the northern and western GOM is likely to be an issue. So the odds of this approaching the US Coast is slim to none.

The next names on the list are Patty and Rafael.

   

The Caribbean...

Still watching the southwestern and central Caribbean.

We will likely see a tropical depression or even a tropical storm form by this weekend or early next week The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the 7-day development odds up to 50%. But I looking at the overall setup, the odds are undoubtedly higher than that.

We’ve been watching this area for awhile now, but the high wind shear has kept a lid on things. But the wind shear is going to weaken in much of the Caribbean next week. The SST are well above average 85 to 88 degrees, with a lot of pockets of deep ocean heat content. There looks to be plenty of moisture. So, this will make for a very supportive environment.

 It remains to be seen, if drier air over the Gulf could get involved with the overall setup.  Right now, pass mid next week, something could try and slip into the Gulf. But windshear over the Gulf could become an issue for any tropical cyclone trying to develop.

There will be a couple other areas to watch, one near Puerto Rico and the other west of the Azores. 

The next name on the list is Patty.

Right now, nothing to worry about, just something to watch.

Happy Halloween!

 

Today is going to be super warm, with temperatures well above average. On the surface chart we see the high-pressure overhead, providing most of us with this sunny weather. But there some of y’all seeing some cloudiness. We can also see that strong frontal boundary approaching. This is the same system that brought all that severe weather to the plains yesterday. But the conditions over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region, are much less conducive for severe weather, but we will see some wind and rain as it moves through.

The winds are fairly calm this morning, but they will increase as the day goes on, becoming 20-30 mph later this afternoon and tonight. There could be some rain showers and maybe some thunder over western parts of the region this evening, but the bulk of the rain should move in after sunset, say around 8-9 pm for western NYS into northwest PA and 11pm to midnight for most of the rest of western PA. So, most of the trick-or-treaters should stay dry. Outside of the wind the rest of the region should stay dry during the time the ghost and Goblins are doing their thing. With rain moving across New York State and Pennsylvania, after Midnight during the overnight. The rain will make it into New England late tonight into tomorrow morning, with clearing developing by the afternoon. But there still could be a few lingering showers over eastern Maine during the afternoon.

 Behind the front we will turn much cooler, with temperatures becoming seasonal for Friday and the Weekend, it will also be breezy.

We turn much cooler and more seasonable for the end of the week with a chilly breeze, and a few lingering showers on Friday. As, high pressure builds in starting Saturday. Making Sunday the chilliest day of the Weekend. Monday the high pressure starts to push to the east, as a warm front lifts back into the region. Temperatures will warm, but nothing like the increasable warmth we saw yesterday and today. Monday into Tuesday rain will advance southwest to north east across the region. Then on Wednesday a cold front will move through, bringing scattered to isolated rain showers, then high pressure looks to build back in for Thursday.

Drought…

As has been the case over the last several weeks, the bulk of this rain associated with the front will be centered over the Great Lakes into Southeastern Canada. So, the farther south you are the less rain you can expect. Which is bad news for the rainfall deficits.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is showing 1% of the Northeast in exceptional drought, 4% in extreme drought, 7% in severe drought, 18% in moderate drought, and 35% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 4%, 5%, 14%, and 38%, respectively, last week. I wouldn’t expect any meaningful rain, for the foreseeable future. So these dry and drought conditions will continue and likely worsen.

 

Summer is back!!!

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

The Surface maps show a warm front lifted through the region with strong high pressure providing an upper-level ridge over the region. We have a strong southwest flow providing very mild but breezy conditions, radar shows the vast majority of the region is rain free under sunny skies. Tomorrow will likely be even warmer. Today and tomorrow will see high temperatures challenge or even break record highs, as the air will be well above average for this time of year.

Tonight, should be mild as well. Tomorrow should stay dry but still be breezy. But an approaching strong cold front will bring the chance for scattered rain showers for western parts of the region Halloween evening/night. The rain will advance west to east during the overnight into Friday morning, rain should end over Maine by Friday afternoon.  With the front winds will continue to be breezy, with much cooler air filtering into the region.

High pressure will build into the region on Friday and over the weekend, providing dry conditions with temperatures near seasonal, with Sunday being the chiller of the two days, so overall the weekend won’t be all that bad.

On Monday high pressure will start to exit east, as a warm front approaches. With the front we can expect to see some scattered rain showers, with rain showers lingering into Tuesday. Temperatures will become milder for the beginning of the work week, but we will have a cold front approaching and moving through on Wednesday. This will bring cooler temperatures and a chance for isolated to scattered showers.

 The region needs rain with rainfall deficits running high in many parts of the region. Unfortunately, no really substantial rain is in the forecast over the next week to ten days. So, the ongoing drought will likely continue to get worse and spread.

 

The Atlantic is going to wake back up and will we see a pattern change over the East Coast?

 

After a surge of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin end of September and the first part of October; the tropical Atlantic is quite right now, but as I’ve been saying that could be changing. So, we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean end of this week into next week.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. It covers the entire Atlantic Basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

So far, we’ve seen 15 named storms. 10 of these become hurricanes, with 4 of them considered major. The National Weather Service defines a tropical cyclone as a hurricane when maximum sustained winds become 74 mph or higher. A hurricane is considered major when maximum sustained winds become 111 mph or higher. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index currently is approximately 148.6. ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during its lifetime, the higher the number the more powerful the impact. The total number of each storms ACE index is added together to determine the total season ACE total. So, the season has been active as a whole. 

My 2024 hurricane outlook, so far, has done very well.  Back in May I called for 17-25 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, 4-8 major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy of 150 – 210.

There were those who said mine and other outlets was going to be a big bust, when the Atlantic went to sleep August into early September. Then we saw a surge of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin end of September and the first part of October; the tropical Atlantic is quite right now, but as I’ve been saying that could be changing. So, we will have to keep an eye on the Caribbean end of this week into next week. If tropical activity does make a come back, my outlook should fall well with-in the parameters I set. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 7 which is an unfavorable phase in the Atlantic, resulting in downward motion over the Atlantic. But the MJO is rotating toward phase 8, phase 1, then phase 2. These phases are more supportive for tropical cyclone development, as we end up with rising motion over the Atlantic.  We should be in phases 8 and 1 end of this week into at least the middle of November. So, we could end up seeing at least one system develop during that time. I wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up with 2 or 3 tropical systems during that three-week period.

On the JMA CHI200 yellow generally means sinking air, blue generally means rising air, off white is neutral. What you look for areas of development is between the blue and yellow.  

The most likely areas to see increased chances for tropical activity will be the GOM, Caribbean and Southwest Atlantic off the Southeast Coast.

  

Pattern change is coming, but it will take a little while.

Along with the MJO and other Pacific teleconnections. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are positive now, which promotes general ridging here in the east. But as we get into the 2^nd half of November we should see these become neutral to negative. For those who don’t like the warm weather, this is a sign that the end of November could turn markedly colder. This would line up with what I said in part 1 of the winter outlook.   

 

We need rain...But nothing meaningful is looking likely anytime soon!

 

Today's Northeast weather discussion…

The Surface maps show high pressure is starting to move to the east, with a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley. It also shows a stationary frontal boundary over the region. Rain showers associated with the warm front will start to move into western parts of the region by this afternoon. With the high starting to push east, a southern flow will develop, which will allow for a breeze and warmer temperatures to move into the region.  The rain showers will move west to east into tonight. Those in New England should see some rain tonight.

Tonight is going to be mild.  The rain will be pushing away from New England by tomorrow morning. A southwesterly flow will mean temperatures will be even warmer, with the warming trend going into Halloween Thursday.  Both Wednesday and Thursday will see high temperature records challenged or even surpassed. Both days should be dry.

 A strong cold front will approach Thursday, ahead of the front rain showers and most likely some thunderstorms will break out. The rain will likely reach western parts of the region very late afternoon and evening. The rest of the region should stay dry for trick or treaters for the evening.  The rain will continue to push east during Thursday night into Friday morning. Rain could be locally heavy at times. But as the front moves through there will only be a window of 2 to 3 hours for rain west to east. So meaningful rain, will be hard to come by. Rain should be ending across Maine during Friday morning.

Behind the front skies will clear, with temperatures becoming seasonal, with a bit of a breeze. The weekend and through Monday are looking to be generally dry. But there could be some lake effect rain showers downwind of the Big Lakes. Tuesday will see a warm front approach and push through bringing a chance for some rain showers, with warm temperatures moving back into the region.

As for the Caribbean, there is no change in the overall thinking of something trying to spin up. The NHC still has the 7-day development odds at 40%.

Remember, Daylight Saving Time will end this weekend. So that means we have to set the clocks back one hour before going to bed Saturday night.

Quick post on the Caribbean

 

As I said in the last tropical post, the SSTs are very warm, more than warm enough for something to spin up.  The most likely spot for something to try and form will be east of Panama.  From here it could drift and meander for a few days, as high pressure over the East Coast blocks it into the Caribbean. Dry air and windshear will likely be an issue at least early on. So, any development that tries to get going would be slow. The models are showing support for something to form, some are more bullish than others. The wind shear over the Caribbean is strong now. The question is will this weaken?  Until something forms, there isn’t really anything else to say.  

The National Hurricane Center has the development probability odds at 40% over the next seven days.

 

Welcome to Monday

 

The surface chart shows high pressure overhead, providing a cool start under sunny skies. We do have a weak frontal boundary hanging out over New York State into Southern New England. The day will be dry with temperatures warming by the afternoon.  

We’re going to have a ridge build in providing warming temperatures, as a warm front lifts through the region. There could be a few hit and miss rain showers for Tuesday into Wednesday, but most shouldn’t see them.  By Wednesday temperatures will be well above average for this time of year.

For Halloween Thursday the warmth continues, with many places away from the coast, challenging temperature records.

A cold front is forecast to move through west to east Thursday evening into Friday morning. Those western parts of the region could see some rain showers in time for trick or treating. Everyone else should stay dry during the evening. The front with the rain will be pushing through New England during the overnight hours. This will bring us a chance for scattered rain showers during the overnight hours into Friday morning skies will be clearing behind the front with rain ending over New England by Friday afternoon.

The coming weekend will see high pressure moving in overhead. The high pressure will be with us through Monday providing sun, seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.

Patty are you there?

 

In the last few posts, I’ve been talking about the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane forming in the Caribbean.  There is model support for the idea of something forming in the southwestern Caribbean around Halloween into next weekend.  We’re going to see the return of a broad area of general low-pressure form, this is called a Central American Gyre; this feature has appeared earlier, and helped create Tropical Storm Nadine and before that hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are still a very warm 86°F to 88 °F, with pockets of deep ocean heat content where warm water extends hundreds of feet under the surface. The SST in the Caribbean are still near-record high. For now, wind shear on the other hand is high. So, anything that tries to spin up will have to deal with that. So, development would likely be slow. But wind shear looks to become more favorable down the road. So, we will see! 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 30% over the next 7 days.

Nothing to worry about right now, just something to keep an eye on!

The next name on the list is Patty.