December 17th, 2024

 

Daily forecast discussion…

The surface chart shows a weak cold front crawling across the region, with another cold front up over the Upper Great Lakes down through the Midwest.

Ahead of the 1^st cold front winds are a bit breezy with very mild temperatures for this time of year. This cold front will continue to move east today into tomorrow, providing isolated to scattered rain showers.

The 2^nd system associated with a northern disturbance, with low pressure developing along it in the Tennessee Valley. As this area of low pressure moves north and east It will bring rain for most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, into Southern New England. The cold air on the backside will cause rain to change over to a mix and snow in the higher elevations of Pennsylvania. This will also occur across New York State and Northern into Central New England. This will result in a general 2-4 inches of snow/mix across these areas, with the lower elevations and valleys seeing a T-1”. And the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens, and whites seeing 3-6” or so.

The cold front will be pushing east on Thursday, behind the front winds will become gusty, and temperatures will become colder. With the colder air moving over the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will be falling on Thursday, but right now this looks to be limited.

Friday we will see low pressure develop off the coast, this looks to develop too far south and east to bring snow to the I-95 corridor and the Coastal Plain.  This Low will move toward Atlantic Canada Friday night into Saturday. Right now, this looks to stay far enough away, to prevent the Northeast from seeing a major snowstorm. But any westward shift in the track could bring impactful snow to parts of New England into parts of Interior New York State.

For Saturday through Monday, Arctic air is going to move into the region, this will be the coldest air of the season so far. This cold won’t stick around, as temperatures will turn mild next week. But as I’ve been saying cold air will be making a return for January. With the Northern Jet staying active, we can expect more snow chances for at least part of our region moving through next month.  

So far, the pattern I laid out in the Winter Outlook, looks to be playing out as expected.

Remember, winter on the Calendar officially starts at 4:21 a.m. Saturday, with the arrival of the winter solstice.