Monday, December 2, 2024

Coldest start to December in over a decade.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…




I measured and I have 68 inches sitting on the Ground here in Barnes Corners. 

The heavy lake effect snow that brought several feet of snow to those east and northeast of the Great Lakes, has shifted south and east. The areas under the weakened bands look to pick up a general 4-8 inches with those under the most persistent lake bands seeing 6-12 inches of snow. Temperatures today will be cold and the winds will be blustery.

Away from the Great Lakes, skies will be partly cloudy with only a slight chance for a few isolated snow/rain showers.

Tonight, will be very cold for the 2nd of December. Tomorrow into Wednesday will be very much like today.

Changes will start on Wednesday as clouds increase ahead of a weak moisture starved Alberta Clipper approaching from the west. The clipper will move in late Wednesday bringing snow to Western New York and Western Pennsylvania. Then it will continue to move across the region into Thursday.  For New York State, most of Pennsylvania and New England will see some snow.  Snow amounts of a trace to a few inches will be possible.  For New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware it will be a more in the way of rain, with a mix of rain and snow.  Those along the coast of Massachusetts and Connecticut will likely see a mix of rain and snow as well.

There is the potential for New York City to see some snow, but I don’t really think it will. The rain/snow line will be close by. But IMO temperatures look to generally be a little too warm. So other than a few snowflakes It should end up mainly rain.

Philadelphia and Washington DC will see just rain.

With the passage of the Clipper winds will be very gusty, with gusts looking to be around 20 to 30 miles per hour, with some gust up around 40 miles per hour.

The Clipper is going to drag in very cold air into the region for Thursday into the Weekend. Conditions will feel more like January than early December. With the cold air moving over the still warm Great Lakes, the lake effect snow machine will crank back up again.

Over the Weekend, we will be dealing with yet another Clipper, it is looking more and more likely that there will be no phase with energy in the Southern Stream. So, this one should act similarly to the midweek Clipper.



Snowpack has greatly increased across Canada into the northern tier of the CONUS. This will help keep cold air coming out of Canada from moderating too much.  The second clipper will bring down cold air behind it. The question right now is, can we hold on to it. We could see some warming around mid next week. The pattern remains active, so if we do end up seeing warmth build back in. It might not last all that long.  But as I said in my Winter Outlook, winter 2024-2025 will experience swings in temperatures. So we will see how things trend. 

 

 

 

 

4 comments:

  1. thanks for the details. Hope everyone is safe.

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  2. There have been time that December started off cold and that was after a Brutal Hunting season in North Central Vt.There was snow when we arrived on.November 12 and much,much more when we left the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
    The next day was the first day for Mass hunting and we had Snow on the ground in the valley.The Temperature that day was below 0 and that was the high,same for Tuesday and Wednesday.It warmed a bit over night and snow was in the air for Thursday—Friday.We had 2 feet plus on the First Saturday and over 3 feet the second Saturday morning.It started to Snow on Sunday afternoon and when I woke up from a 6 hour nap we were buried.The forecast was for Very cold weather until the weekend.I was in the woods at 3500 feet on Monday when I felt a Wind change,It was from the Southwest and getting stronger and gusty.I took out my Anemometer and the wind was 26mph( I remember that because it was the date of my wedding) The wind was bringing in some warm air,I could feel the warmth,I checked my Anemometer and it was 35,the wind was now blowing around 35 and gust were in the mid 40mph.The snow showers had turned to rain showers and I knew that there was no rain in the forecast and all the daytime highs were in the mid 20's so that meant high teens were I was.It was well above that and close to 40.Fog started to develop so we all got out.It was close to 50 downtown.The weather forecast had completely flipped and temperature's were going to be 45-50 until Sunday.I could not believe how fast that amount of snow went down.CHRISTmas was just over a week away and the forecast promised a greenish brown CHRISTmas.It was 50 and pouring CHRISTmas Eve.The 1500 lights on the house were either out,or broken.One color was working and it was yellow.All that snow had melted it was 55 on CHRISTMAS Day.
    This cold reminds me of that with the exception of the lack of snow none in the forecast and some warm air being talked about and showers with that warm air.We did receive 3” down low and above 1500' we had a very White Thanksgiving,with 6 or 7 inches.If the received the quick burst of snow on top of that they had 9+”

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  3. Thanks for the story, It helps with the perspective. Parts of the region due have snow on the ground and we have two Clippers that will be bringing widespread snow, with amounts of a trace to 4-8 inches for many interior parts of the region. I've been talking about the snow for a couple of weeks. But like I said in the Outlook, this winter will see quite a bit of variability, with temperature fluctuations between cold and warmth.

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  4. I just checked the weather forecast and we still have a Winter Weather Advisory.I saw on the Warning map that Blue was all around with one exception.Right at the Mass Vt. Border It’s Pink,The Pink follows the border and Pink is a Winter Storm Warning.It goes up a little above Manchester and South of Rutland.the Warning is not very wide.It just seems weird for the entire area to be an advisory and in the middle is a swath of pink.If it was and the Southern edge,Eastern edge or Northern or Western edges that would seem to be normal.

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Thank you for taking the time to comment, I will answer as soon as I can.