December 6th 2024.

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

 

Today is very cold for this time of year. That brisk breeze adds wind chill to the already cold temperatures. Many of us are dry. But the northwest winds are causing lake effect downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The bands are broken up, but off of Erie the winds are shifting and later this afternoon winds will shift becoming westerly off of Ontario; this will allow the lake bands to reform, east of the lakes.  3-6 inches of snow into the western twin tiers of NYS and Pennsylvania, with Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties seeing upwards of a foot or so. The same will be the case for east of Lake Ontario. Where 3-6 inches of snow is likely, this will be especially true for the Tug Hill. Oswego, Lewis, and northern Oneida Counties could see 6-15 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Some of this could make it into Herkimer County. The bands will stick around for Saturday into Sunday. Winds will be shifting around so the bands will be moving around a little.

Tomorrow will be a little warmer than today. Away from the lakes it should be generally dry. Sunday will see a southwest flow warm us up even more.  A system coming thorough will kick off scattered rain showers for many of us. But those higher elevations across the northern areas could see 2-4 inches or so of snow accumulation. Then for Sunday night into Monday a weak system will be to our north, this will once again bring mainly rain, but there could be a rain/snow mix in those higher elevations across the north.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures become even warmer, the weather will stay unsettled with scattered rain showers.

Storm Next Week?

Thursday into Friday a piece of energy in the southern stream looks to come north, but it looks to be blocked by a disturbance in the northern stream dropping south and east out of Canada and the Upper Plains. As of now, the timing looks to have the northern disturbance pick up the southern system and push it south and east, as another strong arctic front drops into the region. There is a good chance low pressure will try and form, along the frontal boundary. Exactly how the trough interacts with the departing ridge, will be the key as to where this low tracks. If the boundary between the cold and warm air (divergence) sets up closer to the Coast.  The low could ride up the Coast, possibly turning into a nor’easter, bringing a chance for significant snow across interior parts of Pennsylvania, New York State into northern and central New England.  If the divergence sets up farther west the heavier snow will push west with it. Too soon to know how the timing and track sets up.

Longer Range:

There is a chance the Polar Vortex could stretch or even break away, due to a Sudden Stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Depending on how this unfolds and where the vortex disruption takes place, there is a chance we could end up with a cold pattern in the next 2-3 weeks. We will just have to wait and see how this unfolds.

Have a Great Weekend!