December 11th 2024.

 Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

It has been very mild the last couple of day, but that is about to change.

A strong cold front will be moving through allowing much colder air to move in, along with very gusty winds, with 15-30 mph and gust as high as 50 mph over interior areas, with even higher gust of 60-70 mph possible along the coast.

Today will feature waves of rain moving south to north, that will be heavy at times. There will also be embedded thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Rainfall amounts of 1-4 inches are likely, with localized amounts of 5-8 inches possible. The surface chart and radar, show what’s going on overhead with rain changing over the snow across southwest Pennsylvania.

As the day goes on the much colder air will move west to east, leading to a flash freeze, the transition to snow will also continue west to east. The snow/mix will be on the backside, so the amount of time it will be snowing will be rather brief. Snow will start in the higher elevations and then move into parts of the lower elevations. Snow is unlikely to accumulate in the river valleys and coastal plain. But elsewhere, most of y’all will see a T to an inch, with the higher elevations seeing 1-3 inches. Places like the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites 3-5 inches is possible.  

Tomorrow will see the storm drifting away, but winds will still be very gusty. The cold air coming over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes, will kick off lake effect snow downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The lake snows will continue into Saturday, before dissipating.  Off of Lake Erie, the highest amounts look to be south and east of Buffalo along the Boston Hills and along the Chautauqua Ridge where one to as much as three feet will be possible. Those east and northeast of Lake Ontario, in Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis into Herkimer Counties look to see the brunt of it. With the northern into central Tug Hill seeing two to near four feet of snow.

These colder temperatures will stick around into Saturday. Sunday temperatures will warm, as a system approaches. A rain mix will be over western New York State, into Pennsylvania. This will be dropping south and east during the day. Low pressure will pass to our south on Monday, there could be some rain over parts of southern Pennsylvania, into the northern Middle Atlantic.  For Tuesday low pressure will be off the coast, providing a chance for a few rain showers over the middle Atlantic. On Tuesday we will also be watching low pressure and a cold front approach from the west. This cold front will move through on Wednesday, bringing rain, with a higher elevation mix, as colder air streams in behind it.