December 13th 2024.

 

Today’s Northeast weather discussion…

The latest bout of Arctic air is making for cold temperatures. The cold blustery winds moving over the Great Lakes brought feet of snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Looking at the radar image the lake effect is winding down off of Lake Erie, with the band off of Lake Ontario shifting southward. Those under the shifting band will likely pick up 3-8 inches of snow, before the band dissipates tonight.

Tomorrow, there could be some lingering lake snow near the Lake Shore of Lake Ontario, everyone else should stay generally dry.  As high-pressure drifts in and things shift east, we will see temperatures slightly warmer, but still below average.  Sunday will see temperatures warm more, with the day starting dry. But changes will be going on.

For Sunday and Monday, a system currently in the Southern Plains will be approaching, as it moves over the Northern Middle Atlantic it will be rather weak.  Thing will likely start as a snow/freezing rain mix over southwestern Pennsylvania Sunday morning, then as it warms this will change to all rain. The mix then rain will work into western New York State during the afternoon, then working into Central New York State and Pennsylvania by Sunday night. This weather will work North and East during the rest of Sunday into Monday.  Depending on how well the system hold together, a snow freezing rain mix to rain could move into New England on Monday.  Those in Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey into Southeast New York State and southern New England this should be all rain.

Most of next week should be fairly mild, with the weather staying unsettled.

Another weak cold front will move through for Monday night and Tuesday, this will keep is a bit unsettled with scattered rain showers and a chance for a bit of a mix in the higher elevations. Wednesday is looking to be warm and basically dry. Thursday a cold frontal boundary will approach, this will allow for cooler temperatures to start to work in.  Then on Friday a stronger area of low pressure will be approaching from the South, how this track will be the factor in who sees what. Another factor will be the timing of available cold. But right now, this looks to bring waves of rain across Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic, the rain will likely extend into Southern New York State and Southern New England Rain could be heavy at times. Those in the Poconos and Catskills will likely see a mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain and snow. Those across Central and Northern New York State and Northern into Central New England there will likely be a rain/sleet/freezing rain mix, depending on timing there could some accumulating snows, this will be especially true in the higher elevations.

 

The MJO is going to be in phase 7 near the end of the month, then losing amplitude as it moves into phase 8. As I’ve said several times these phases are considered cold phases this time of year. But with the MJO not being as strong as it could be, means below average temperatures but it shouldn’t be super cold. 

As I warned in the Winter Outlook, the temperature pattern is going to be up and down.

January could see stretching of the Polar Vortex. Depending on the direction of the stretch at least part of January could be quite cold. The polar vortex is an area of low pressure over the North Pole. When the PV is strong it locks up the cold air over the Arctic, but when it weakens and stretches or have pieces break off, arctic cold is able to plunge into the lower latitudes.  There are early signs that the PV could also make a visit during February as well. Time will tell.