I’ve been
very busy around the ranch for the last few weeks; I’ve also been busy trying
to keep all y’all informed about the highly active and stormy pattern. But I did
say I would post analysis on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The 2024
Atlantic Basin hurricane season officially ended on November 30th.
Before the
hurricane season started, most weather outlets released outlooks calling for a
very active hurricane season. Some were
even calling for a record-breaking season. I too was calling for an active
season. But I listed several wild cards that would also be a factor during the
season; the biggest wild card I talked about was going to be Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the Atlantic. I said “I
think we’re going to be ending up dealing with SAL at times; this is going to
help curtail development and strength of tropical cyclones that form out of the
African waves; this should keep the 2024 season out of the record books when it
comes to overall numbers of named storms. For that reason, my numbers will be a
bit lower than some of these other outlets”. This turned out to be a big factor.
In my final call,
I said… We would end up with 17-25 named storms. 8-12 of these would end up
becoming hurricanes, with 4-8 of those becoming major hurricanes, with winds reaching 111 miles per
hour or greater. When it came to Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), I said it
would end up being 150 to 210…
Over the
June 1st to November 30th season, the Atlantic Basin
experienced 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes, including five
major hurricanes. An average season based on the 30-year average from 1991
to 2020 produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
ACE ended up reaching 162. Based on the 1951 to 2020 mean, an ACE index of 96
is generally considered average. So, to be considered near average, ACE would be
within the range of 66 to 111. With the final ACE being 162 (33% above average),
it would make 2024 officially a hyperactive season according to the definition
used by NOAA.
Some of the
seasonal outlooks issued by some outlets busted on the high side. But based on
the numbers, my outlook, ended up with-in the range I called for.
Some
details on the 2024 hurricane season:
Tropical
Storm Alberto kicked off the season when he developed on June 19th.
Beryl formed soon after, she quickly intensified into the earliest Category 5
hurricane on Record in the Atlantic Basin. At one point Beryl’s max sustained
winds were 165 mph. Beryl was a very deadly hurricane with 73 known fatalities
and ending up causing multi-billion dollars in damage. The next storm to form
was Tropical Storm Chris. August saw two hurricanes develop. Hurricane Debby form
in early August. Then Hurricane Ernesto formed in Mid-August.
The Mid-Season
Lull
During the
peak of the hurricane season, a lull in activity occurred between the 20th
of August and the 23rd of September, when no named storms developed.
This type of thing is rare, the last time something similar happened was back
in 1968.
The reason
for this lull, had to due with moderate to high wind shear in the Eastern half
of the Atlantic Basin, as well as increased Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust and
dry air. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) stayed in unfavorable phased
during this time as well. Another factor leading to the lull, was how warm temperatures were in the
tropical upper atmosphere. This led to a much more stable airmass than would be
expected for the peak of the hurricane season. When the atmosphere is stable,
it is more difficult for thunderstorm complexes to develop, which lead to
tropical cyclones.
The season
after the Lull
After the
lull, the season resumed like gangbusters. with 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes,
and 4 major hurricanes forming before the end of the season.
These named storms
consisted of: Hurricane Francine, Tropical Storm Gordon, Hurricane Helene,
Hurricane Isaac, Tropical Storm Joyce, Hurricane Kirk, Hurricane Leslie,
Hurricane Milton, Tropical Storm Nadine, Hurricane Oscar, Tropical Storm Patty,
Hurricane Rafael, Tropical Storm Sara.
Of the 8
hurricanes, Kirk, Helene, Milton, and Rafael became major hurricanes. Hurricane
Milton explosively
intensified and became the seasons 2nd Category 5 with max sustained winds of
180 mph and a min central pressure of 897 mb.
A total of 5
hurricanes made landfall in the continental US: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene,
and Milton. Helene and Milton made landfall as major hurricanes.
Most of the
deaths during the hurricane season were caused by Beryl, Helene, and Milton,
while the vast amount of the damage was caused by Helene and Milton. Of these
Hurricane Helene was the deadliest by far and most destructive hurricane of the
2024 hurricane season.
There was
one other system of note during the season. On September 13, along a frontal boundary, there
was an area of low pressure developing off the Carolina Coast. On the 15th
of September the system was observed to be detaching from the front; because of
this the NHC gave the system the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 8.
But on the 16th the system weakened; because of this the NHC
discontinued tropical storm warnings for the Carolinas.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was exceptionally ruinous with over $200 billion in damages and at least 400 deaths.
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Thank you for the summary.
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