Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Will there be a White Christmas?

My winter outlook said, this winter would see a seesaw temperature pattern; so far, that has certainly been the case.  The pattern has been very active. The outlook said how an active December was likely. My outlook also said this winter would see a fight between the MJO and other teleconnections. That too has been the case so far this winter.

Snowfall has hit parts of the region hard, while other areas haven’t seen any snow yet.  The reason for this has to do with that battle between the various teleconnections. The pattern hasn’t supported Major snowstorms coming up the Coast. Instead, we’ve seen a parade of Clipper systems, with the cold air in place these have brought snow to parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and Northern into Central New England.  The Outlook said, the typical snowbelts should end up with overall above average to well above average snowfall for the season. So far, the snowbelts downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario have done very well, with snowfall running well above average for this point in the season. The Outlook said, how the Middle Atlantic and I-95 look to see a warmer winter and maybe little in the way of snow.

We’re only in December, so there is plenty of time for more areas to see snow, due to the active pattern looking to continue. Snowstorms of course will depend on available cold (we must have the cold in place before the snow) as well as the storm track.  I can tell you winter isn’t over.

So far, my winter outlook is going very well. The question is, will that be the case come Spring? I have a lot of confidence that the pattern I thought would occur, is indeed happening, so I guess we will see.

White Christmas?



The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn’t have to snow on Christmas Day to have that distinction.

We’re going to be warm tomorrow. But then a system will come through, that will start to cool us off. But over the weekend, temperatures are going to be frigid. The system that comes through Wednesday night and Thursday will produce light snow for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and Northern into central New England. As we get into Christmas week, temperatures are going to turn mild again. There is no widespread snowstorm, looking likely, as the storm track looks to push its way near the Canadian border. But a weak system could bring a bit of snow for some.

If there is enough cold air in place (which is a big if), those with the best chance of seeing snow on the ground are going to be across far northern New York State and Northern New England, especially in the higher elevations.   While those south of there will likely be only dreaming of a White Christmas.

 

4 comments:

  1. Alan๐ŸŽ…๐Ÿคถ๐ŸŽ„December 18, 2024 at 10:10 AM

    Your Winter outlook unfortunately has been spot on.We had a total of 8”after the clipper went through and then we received 2” in nuisance snow You find some goo I bet I knew you had a lot of snowman. I couldn’t believe they weren’t out every year. There was always like a snowman invasion and I didn’t know if they had gotten broken or what oh UPS invasion. I said UPS invasion yes no UPS truck outside wasn’t for us, but there was two trucks you’ve got your painting that you did. I know above your the village now if we keep putting stuff on that it’s gonna make it take longer. You got it all out, but when the new stand comes and you have to take all of that stuff off, it’s just gonna make for more work for it. I’ll take it off when he’s ready to do it. Just take the thing and try and pull the you know the tablecloth trick that would be cool then I want I want to make sure there’s an outlet for my weather. . I’ll take it off when he’s ready to do it. Just take the thing and try and pull the you know the tablecloth trick that would be cool then I want I want to make sure there’s an outlet for my weather station. The other one I can’t figure out how to get it to go from Celsius to Fahrenheit. I’ve tried every combination on the pad. I just know that if it’s above zero that it’s it’s not really that cold is Robert did you see Reverend outside? Maybe you got to stay in today or he’s probably out now OK I think I’m gonna watch some sports football. It’s I can’t play it. I can watch it. The Dallas Cowboys ornaments really set the tree off. it’s too bad that you know put the games jersey on there. I’ve got two of them. I think yeah a blue one and a white one oh wow where UPS truck might’ve dropped off a box because they’re still one for five ornaments and the rain gauge for my weather station.

    ReplyDelete
  2. OMG,I'm am so so sorry,I have to use the talk too type app to text anything to anyone. I broke my Thumb and index finger last week so I can’t hold the iPad with that hand and type with my right and I forgot that that was on as I was starting to reply to your Weather post. I can’t find An edit Word when I press and hold on that post, there is an edit for this post, but it must go away when you press publish. Again, I am so so sorry and I will try to get it right.

    ReplyDelete
  3. No problem...it is funny. Hope your thumb gets better.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Alan๐ŸŽ…๐Ÿคถ๐ŸŽ„December 18, 2024 at 1:14 PM

    Well,so far your Outlook has been spot.on. we had 8 inches of snow from the clipper and then 2 inches of nuisance snow so 10 inches of snow were in my side yard. Then we started to climb the roller coaster and received over an inch….Of rain along with a spike and temperatures which hit 59 we had no snow left. It was fun reading how A certain weather forecaster was receiving snow by the foot. then a couple nights ago, a glimmer of hope a Weather app that came already loaded in my iPad gave a forecast for I believe Tuesday into today and that 4 to 7 inches of snow would fall, However, the next day, the same forecaster had higher temperatures and instead of snow rain.. Now all forecast have the 25th on their site and every one is predicting above normal temperatures not that much above only four or 5° but no precipitation was in the 15 day. We have a few days of cold coming after this next rain event. With what We have seen so far. It looks like cold air that is locked up in Canada only makes a brief appearance After a precipitation event has gone by the cold air, then gets brought down for long enough, so people remember what it feels like to be cold. The days after our holiday are looking to be above normal, not much but enough so that anything that tries to sneak by will be turned to liquid.
    It wasn’t that long ago that we had a green Christmas and then woke up the next day and watched as it snowed and snowed till I got up to 27 inches and the snow stick from that day on it was either snowing or the wind was blowing snow into your face so that by the time you got in the house, your face was stinging. just positive thought.

    ReplyDelete

Thank you for taking the time to comment, I will answer as soon as I can.