Surface chart, Northeast radar and satellite!
Looking at the surface chart We can see the cold front is starting to push away to the east And we have Snow up over New York State. Scattered showers over Vermont New Hampshire With steady snow up over Maine. isolated to scattered snow showers could work their way into Pennsylvania and northern Middle Atlantic, But they shouldn't amount too much maybe a dusting to an inch at most (but most will likely see nothing). The cold air coming over lake Ontario has started a bit of lake effect Most areas south and east of lake Ontario will pick up a general 1-3 inches of snow today with the areas east of lake Ontario on the Tug Hill picking up 3-6 + inches, Parts of the Adirondacks could pick up another 2-4 inches. There will likely be D-2 inches of snow across Vermont into New Hampshire as far. As far as the Greens and Whites y'all could possibly pick up 2-4 inches of additional snow. Much of Maine will likely pick up another 1-3 inches of snow today but areas around Downeast picking up 2 - 5 or 6 inches.
The low pressure will continue to push east snow ending west to east starting this evening into the overnight. There could be some lingering snow over parts of New England tomorrow morning. But high pressure will be approaching providing a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures look to be around seasonal. Friday we'll see high pressure in control with plenty of sun with temperatures continuing to trend upward.
Saturday we will see a weak system passing through, Over northern parts of the region this could cause a few Snow showers or flurries friday overnight and to Saturday. But I don't think they're going to mount too much and many of us should see a dry Saturday. The rest of the region will likely see nothing from this. As we had into Valentine's Day weekend we are going to experience a warming trend.
Then for Sunday and Monday we will be watching a storm. As I've been saying for a couple of days we're going to have an upper level low moving across the southern US.
NAM courtesy of tropical tidbits
GFS courtesy of tropical tidbits
EURO courtesy of tropical tidbits
Sunday We're gonna have high pressure up in Canada That is transferring and extending off the New England Coast. This is going to allow South and south east flow allowing for warming temperatures in the morning. During the afternoon as this storm is approaching from the south It is moving into a warming environment. The disturbance to the north still to me doesn't look like it's going to have a lot of impact on the southern system . We're going to need a complete phase for the EURO solution to verify. The models are having a hard time with this pattern and the rest of the models are all over the place. But the EURO right now is the most aggressive with this storm. If the euro is correct and I'm not saying it's not ONLY that I highly doubt it. But everything is going to have to come into perfect alignment for it to happen. The pattern coming over the CONUS is very progressive. That fast flow is gonna make it very hard for this system in the southern stream to come north. So for now , I'm still calling for chance for some rain in the southern areas (But if the system stays far enough south Y 'all might not see anything at all). Over the northern areas it's going to be a bit of snow, mix and rain. The northern lower elevations will be more likely to see rain, While the higher elevations across northern New York State Vermont New Hampshire into Maine will have a better chance of seeing a snow and or mix.
EURO courtesy of tropical tidbits
Sunday We're gonna have high pressure up in Canada That is transferring and extending off the New England Coast. This is going to allow South and south east flow allowing for warming temperatures in the morning. During the afternoon as this storm is approaching from the south It is moving into a warming environment. The disturbance to the north still to me doesn't look like it's going to have a lot of impact on the southern system . We're going to need a complete phase for the EURO solution to verify. The models are having a hard time with this pattern and the rest of the models are all over the place. But the EURO right now is the most aggressive with this storm. If the euro is correct and I'm not saying it's not ONLY that I highly doubt it. But everything is going to have to come into perfect alignment for it to happen. The pattern coming over the CONUS is very progressive. That fast flow is gonna make it very hard for this system in the southern stream to come north. So for now , I'm still calling for chance for some rain in the southern areas (But if the system stays far enough south Y 'all might not see anything at all). Over the northern areas it's going to be a bit of snow, mix and rain. The northern lower elevations will be more likely to see rain, While the higher elevations across northern New York State Vermont New Hampshire into Maine will have a better chance of seeing a snow and or mix.
I know there is hype on some parts of social media on how this possibly being a major storm for our region. I'm just laying things out as I see them. So I guess we will see!
Going forward
We're going to see a deep trough drop into the western US. This is going to set up a pattern that has a lot of volatility with swings going back and forth. This is the kind of pattern we typically experience as we move through March. So we're going to see warm spells move across the region along with cold shots coming in from the north This is going to set up a battleground for possible snowstorms across our region.
All everyone is saying is that "the models are having a hard time with the pattern." Why is this? It seems the models are always having a hard time, not just this winter but generally for years now. And I'm not hearing this from you. It's everyone. I'm genuinely curious.
ReplyDeleteThe models inherently Have several issues when it comes to trying to figure things out. For king of the Madonna they make simplification and approximation errors that lead to initiation errors. This can result from inaccurate or incomplete observational input data. These initiation errors Compound as a model continues through the rest of the model run which can lead to model biases. Meteorology is a very delicate science And any tiny variation in what is actually occurring Can skew things soberly that the end result is completely different and what will happen. Most of the time models have a hard time Interpreting things like the MJO, El Nino and many other teleconnections. On top of that The models have a hard time with transition seasons Like winter going into spring and fall going into winter. It's just that things are in such flux and changes are happening very quickly. So it's up to humans to take what they see and what the models are telling them and try to make rational decisions on what they think is going to occur.
DeleteThe models inherently Have several issues When it comes to trying to figure things out. They can make Simplification and approximation errors That lead to initiation errors. This can result from Incomplete or inaccurate observational input data. These initialization errors compound as a model continues to run. This can lead to model biases. Meteorology is a very delicate science where tiny variations in the data and observations can skew things so badly that the end result is unrecognizable. Most of the times the models have a hard time interpreting things like the MJO, El Nino and many other teleconnections. On top of that the models have a hard time with transition seasons like going from fall into winter or winter going into spring. During this time the atmosphere is in such flux and things are changing so quickly That the models have a hard time coping. It comes down to humans to take what they see and what the models are trying to tell them and try to make a rational decision on what they think is going to occur.
DeleteThank you.
ReplyDelete