A taste of Fall!

Last Saturday’s tornadoes

On the 18th the region had widespread severe weather, this resulted in hundreds of damage reports. There were also five or six tornadoes that hit the region.  Saturday certainly was a very severe outbreak!

The NWS Pittsburgh confirmed that four tornadoes touched down across Western Pennsylvania.

NWS State College, PA damage surveys

confirmed an EF-2 with estimated Peak Winds of 125 mph, touched down in Franklin Township, Huntingdon County with a path Length of 0.53 miles and with a maximum width of 500 yards.

A second damage survey conducted on Sunday July 19th confirmed an EF-1 tornado occurred in Whiteside, PA south of Houtzdale in Clearfield County, PA this one had estimated peak winds of 110 mph, with a track length of 1.0 miles with a maximum width of 400 yards.

The National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA also conducted damage surveys.

They confirmed a EF1 with estimated Peak Winds of 90 mph. it first touched down near Strattanville in Clarion County, PA and lifted in Summerville also in Clarion County, PA. the tornado tracked for 1.53 miles.

They also confirmed a second tornado of EF0 intensity that occurred from the same supercell as it touched down near Punxsutawney the tornado move into Latrobe in Westmoreland County, PA.  This tornado had an estimated Peak Wind of 75 mph, with a path length of 0.62 miles. It had a max width of 100 yards.

The NWS Binghamton also confirmed an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York State’s Southern Tier during Saturday's severe storms and moved across parts of Broome and Delaware counties. This tornado hit the Town of Hale Eddy and the Town of Hancock. It touched down near Sanford, Broome County, starting at EF‑0 strength. The tornado strengthened as it approached State Route 41 and Oquaga Creek to EF-1 intensity, with peak winds estimated at 95 mph This one was a long track tornado, being on the ground for nearly 20 minutes and carved a 15.69-mile path, with a and peak width was 300 yards.

The Storm Prediction Center is listing that an EF0 tornado touched down near Stanhope–Dorchester. The SPC says the tornado had an estimated wind speed of 80 to 85 mph. I can’t find any collaboration on the NWS Mount Holly site.

The National Weather Service listed several microbursts impacted the region, the winds ranged from around 70 mph to as much as 110 mph. 

This will go into last Saturday's severe weather, talk about the risk for today and touch on Tropical Storm Bertha.

Surface chart and radar.

 

 

We have that cold front still over the region slowly pushing east.  Ahead of the front we have hot and humid conditions, while behind it we have a taste of fall.  Ahead of the front we do have some rain showers.

 

There were dozens of damage reports across New York State, Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic Tuesday. There were at least three confirmed tornadoes during yesterday’s severe weather. One was in near Portersville in Butler County, PA. The other two were in Morris and Cape May Counties in New Jersey. NWS storm survey teams will be looking at the damage. I will give information when it’s available. 

The severe weather situation today won’t be nearly as widespread and will be less intense when compared to Tuesday.

Daytime heating will lead to increased instability with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s there will be favorable setup for scattered showers and storms, this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.

The severe weather threat has shifted eastward and southward. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather over most of Maine, southern Delaware and southeastern Maryland and New Jersey. With a Marginal Risk between them across eastern and southern New England. Long Island and New York City, New Jersey into the northern Middle Atlantic.

The main risk will be damaging winds. But hail and heavy rainfall will also be a concern. These storms should move fairly quickly, limiting the overall flooding concern. With that said, training thunderstorms will bring the risk for Flash Flooding. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado.

 Tonight, into tomorrow morning the cold front will be sliding offshore and south of the region. Outside of some lingering rain, that should be about it.

High pressure will be approaching tonight. Behind the cold front temperatures will become quite cool, with low temperatures in the 50’s and 40’s some of those normally colder areas across northern New York State and northern New England could get into the mid to upper 30’s.  The high pressure will move in overhead for Thursday Friday and over the Weekend. Providing beautiful weather with temperatures remaining average to slightly below average temperatures and low humidity. The high pressure will start to move off the coast on Sunday. But Sunday should still remain dry for most of y’all. There will be an approaching cold front. Ahead of the front western parts of the region could be a few isolated showers as early as Saturday evening/night with scattered showers moving in for Sunday afternoon.  This cold front will be slowly moving west to east across the region. Bringing the chance of rain showers with it.  For the first half of next week, a upper-level low will be hanging around with a couple of cold fronts dropping through. Keeping it unsettled with the threat for some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms in the forecast. Right now, no day is looking like a washout.

   

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha is being affected by considerable vertical northeasterly wind shear. The strong shear is giving Bertha a lopsided look.  All this shear has generally limited Bertha from strengthening a lot she is still a generally a weak tropical storm.  Bertha has max sustained winds of 50 mph, a central pressure of 998 mb and is crawling west-northwest at 6 mph. 

Looking at the satellite image,

 

We can see Bertha isn’t looking very healthy.  With most of the heavier convection (thunderstorms) well away from the center of circulation.

 

She should make a landfall on south Louisiana later today. Then she will be hanging around into tomorrow before she falls apart by tomorrow evening. Bertha should continue to slowly weaken today and tomorrow; she could at least lose tropical storms status if not fall apart before she makes it to the Texas coast. But we will see!  Either way, Bertha is unlikely to strengthen any further.

Bertha has been keeping her heaviest rainfall well offshore. That will continue to be the case today and tomorrow, wind shear will likely increase even more, so her thunderstorms should be pushed even farther offshore. 

Have a great day!