Weekly post for the week ahead!

 

Monday through Saturday is going to see increasing chances for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.  Tuesday and Saturday will have the greatest chance of seeing more in the way of widespread thunderstorms.

We’re also going to see a return of some wildfire smoke into parts of the region, as winds start to usher in higher temperatures and higher dew points.

Today we have low pressure off the coast, this is keeping the coastal plain cooler due to that onshore flow, but inland more sun is allowing temperatures to be a little warmer

Surface chart and radar.

 

We have a weakening cold front dropping out of Canada. This is going to set off pop up rain showers across New York State today.  I can rule out a few heavier downpours. This shower chance is widely scattered through, so many of us will likely get through the day dry. For most of y’all thunderstorms should be non-severe. There will also be isolated showers and storms across parts of Maryland today. For eastern Maryland some of these thunderstorms could be on the strong side later this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk across most of eastern Maryland.

 

The beginning of next week brings a pattern shift. The Southwest into Texas Panhandle, up through the southern Plains are going to see several days of air at or above 105°F. as shortwave energy with storms move along the northern edge of this heat dome across the Plains, the risk for severe weather will expand east early this week. As we’ve seen several times this summer, once again we will see thunderstorm complexes move over the dome along a corridor spanning from northern portions of the Plains through the Midwest, Great Lakes and eventually into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Scattered rain showers and storms will develop this afternoon/evening.

Monday should start off dry with showers and storms developing into the afternoon and evening. High pressure will push east and exit the region, this will allow the winds to become southernly, temperatures and dew points should rise through the day as well, as a system approaches from the west-northwest and drops south and east out of the Great Lakes, thunderstorms will be likely across western into central parts of New York State and Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has the Ohio Valley into far western Pennsylvania and extreme southwest New York State under a slight risk for severe weather. The timing of this looks to be primarily during the evening into Monday night The biggest threats are for damaging winds, large hail. The SPC drops the risk to Marginal across the rest of Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic.  The conditions needed for tornado activity is low, stay weather aware during the nighttime storms.

 

Then a slow-moving area of low pressure a leading warm front followed by a cold front, will significantly raise the threat for thunderstorm Tuesday into Wednesday as this more potent system approaches, there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday across the Middle Atlantic into southeast New York State. The SPC has a Slight Risk up for Maryland, Delaware into far southern New Jersey and edges into southwest Pennsylvania, Interstate 95 corridor will be at risk for damaging wind gust, Hail, and heavy downpours will be a concern. There is a Marginal Risk for much of Pennsylvania, the rest of New Jersey, into far southeast New York including New York City and Long Island.  North of here across the rest of New York State and Central/southern New England there will be an issue for heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding.  for Maine it will likely be staying generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, but rain chances will increase for Tuesday evening/night.

 

Don’t be surprised if the SPC expands the risk for Monday and Tuesday.

The low pressure is going to track north and east on Wednesday. We will have to see if something tries to form along the Middle Atlantic Coast.   A series of troughs moving through will keep the pattern a bit unsettled and generally cooler for the 2^nd half of the week. Scattered shower and storm chances will last through Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We will see another frontal system approach for later Friday and Saturday. This will increase the risk for some rain showers and thunderstorms.

The core of the heat dome will span the Plains into the Midwest. Then this high-pressure-dome will eventually shift back west, temperatures are expected to stay well above historical averages across the Plains through mid-August. The east should be generally cooler with more in the way of seasonal temperatures. 

 I hope y’all have been or will be reading yesterday’s El Nino post, it covers a lot of ground going forward.