Today’s
Northeast weather discussion…
The radar shows heavy lake effect continuing. As arctic air circulates around the Upper Level Low over the Hudson Bay.
The areas
downwind of Lake Erie south and east of Buffalo into northwest Pennsylvania and
downwind of Lake Ontario on the
northern Tug Hill, have already picked up 4 feet to 5+ feet of snow. Here in Barnes
Corners, I’ve got around 5 feet of snow. Yesterday we were in the heavy snow band
for most of the day, then it drifted north during the overnight; this kept me
from seeing another foot or two by this morning.
The bands are
starting to move back south. This will bring the Lake Erie Band back over the South
Towns and off of Ontario back onto the northern into central Tug Hill. Then the
bands will generally stay put. The areas
under the bands will see another 1 to 2 feet today.
This evening
a shortwave will shift the winds to the south and east. The bands will likely
weaken a bit as they shift southward. The lake snow will stay southeast of both
lakes through Tuesday. Then they will re-intensify a
bit. So accumulating snow will be in store for Wayne, Cayuga, Onondaga and
Cortland counties.
The Lake Snow Warnings east of Erie
and Ontario will end by 7 PM tomorrow, but for areas like southern Erie,
Cattaraugus and Chautauqua Counties in New York State into northwest
Pennsylvania, including the City of Erie, the Lake Effect Snow warnings have
been extended into Tuesday morning.
There will likely be an upper lake
connection to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, which will enhance local snow amounts
Elsewhere
the weather should be cold but fairly quiet. I can’t rule out a few lake effect
bands for Tuesday.
I’ve been
talking about the parade of clippers that will be moving through from Canada. We
will have one that will move through on Wednesday. As I said yesterday, with
the cold air in place this will bring widespread snow to a large part of the
region, where amounts of a trace to a few inches will be possible. Southern
Pennsylvania, the Middle Atlantic and along the coast would likely be dealing
with rain/mix. When this comes through it will disrupt the lake effect and
briefly shut down the lake effect machine. Then when much colder air moves in
behind the clipper, the lake effect machine will turn back on for Thursday and
Friday.
Then we will
see another one move into the region over the weekend. There is a possibility that
the clipper in the northern stream, interacts with energy and gulf moisture in
the southern stream. If we do see some phasing, the I-95 into southern New
England could see some accumulating snow out of it, as this would develop into
a coastal low that would come up the coast. If there is no phase, then northern
Pennsylvania and interior New York State and northern into central New England
could see some accumulation. Right now, I’m leaning toward this not phasing.
How all of this comes about will depend on the track and timing of all the components.
The next
10-14 days is looking to continue the cold outbreak, as waves of arctic air
move over the region. With the pattern staying cold, there will be more opportunities
for snow moving toward Mid December.
.
